[Dryerase] The Alarm!--War Notes

[Alarm!Wires]

A bi-monthly column following the developments of our new permanent war, 
the war on terrorism
By sasha k
The Alarm! Newspaper Contributor
Iraq
Two days of talks between Iraq and the UN over the resumption of weapons 
inspections fell through on July 5.  Iraq wanted the economic sanctions 
that have devastated the country to end before the inspectors returned, 
but the UN, under US pressure, demanded the inspectors must first 
certify that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction before sanctions 
can be lifted.  The UN was careful to stress that talks are still 
ongoing.  Yet, the Bush administration was quick to condemn Iraq.  Even 
while these talks were going on, the US continued its march to war with 
Iraq.  A detailed Pentagon plan for the invasion of Iraq, leaked to the 
New York Times, called for a massive air and ground attack from several 
countries—Kuwait, Turkey, Qatar, and Jordan—as well as from the sea.
According to New York Times sources, this is only a preliminary plan, 
and a consensus has not been reached in the Defense Department or in the 
Bush administration itself.  General Tommy Franks, commander of the 
Central Command which would run such a military operation, has warned 
that the invasion would require at least 200,000 troops.  Franks’ 
assessment has been criticized by the hawks of the administration who 
are weary of an attack so dependent on the Army.
Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld is known to dislike the Army.  He is a 
proponent of what is known as Revolution in Military Affairs (R.M.A.), a 
theory which attaches paramount importance to new technology, especially 
in the Air Force and the Navy, and new systems like National Missile 
Defense.  Rumsfeld’s staff notes that the Army was organized to defend 
Europe from attack, whereas new threats are going to increasingly come 
from Asia where the Air Force and Navy will play key roles.  Douglas 
Feith, undersecretary of defense, has been very critical of Franks for 
his supposed excessive and outdated reliance on ground troops.  Feith, 
Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and General Wayne Downing, until 
last week the White House’s deputy national security advisor for 
fighting terrorism—Downing reportedly resigned due to the lack of action 
against Iraq; his resignation was called “bad news for the war” by 
several hawks—all advocate an Afghan-style strategy that would rely on a 
combination of air strikes and a coalition of Iraqi opposition forces.  
The Iraqi opposition, however, is notoriously fractured and weak.
Meanwhile, Jordan, named by the plan as a launching pad for the invasion 
of Iraq, has denied that it would allow such an operation to use its 
territory.  Government spokesman Mohammad Adwan was quoted in the Jordan 
Times as stressing Jordan’s “firm stand on national and pan-Arab issues 
related to all our brethren in the Arab world, especially in Iraq and 
Palestine.”  Adwan stated that the “only means capable of solving the 
Iraqi question and … bringing an end to the suffering of the brotherly 
Iraqi people” was a dialogue between the UN and Iraq.  With only lap-dog 
Britain on the invasion bandwagon, the US has a long way to go if it 
intends to build the sort of coalition it did during the last Gulf War.
US as the Defender of Democracy
As Bush’s “you’re with us or you’re against us” doctrine is being put 
into practice, we can see one of Bush’s first goals is to oust national 
leaders that are not willing to easily go along with US interests.  
First we had the attempted coup in Venezuela against democratically 
elected Hugo Chavez, then Bush called for the ouster of Yasser Arafat—
also democratically elected—and now we are moving to knock out Saddam 
Hussein.  Some have cautioned, however, that once Hussein himself 
becomes a target there is no reason for him to hold back on using any 
chemical or biological weapons he may have.
China
This week the Pentagon issued a strident report to Congress on the build 
up of China’s military.  The report asserted that the Chinese military 
budget wasn’t the $20 billion publicly stated but probably more like $65 
billion a year.  (The US budget is $350 billion and Bush wants it to 
increase to $396 billion in the coming year.)  China has been 
modernizing its military forces for years but increased the rate of 
change since the September 11 attacks.  China is fearful of increased US 
hegemony, especially in Asia.
The Pentagon report states that China seems to be moving away from a 
strategy of peaceful reunification with Taiwan to a military strategy.  
This is, of course, in response to a similar US shift in policy from 
diplomacy to military solutions to international conflicts.  China 
recently bought several Russian submarines capable of blockading 
Taiwan.  In addition, they added two more orders for Russian 
Sovremenny-class destroyers, which are armed with missiles designed to 
take out American aircraft carriers (they already operate two such 
destroyers).  The report argues that these ships are being added to the 
Chinese arsenal to deter the US from intervening in any conflict between 
China and Taiwan.  China is also worried about the build up of US troops 
in the Philippines and the possibility of a Japanese military build up.  
A bipartisan congressional commission also came out with a report this 
last week stating that, as China moves to a more high-tech economy, 
Chinese imports might eventually “undermine the US defense industrial 
base.”
Indonesia
Since the beginning of the “war on terrorism,” the US has been hankering 
to restart military relations with Indonesia.  Relations were cut off 
three years ago after the massacres in East Timor.  But the mostly 
Muslim Indonesia is seen as a key state in the war on terrorism.  This 
week, however, the move to restart military aid to Indonesia was dealt 
two blows: first, a recent power shift in the military put the head of 
the Army in command of all three branches of the military.  The Army has 
more ties to Indonesian Muslim fundamentalists than the other branches 
and it has also been responsible for more human rights abuses.  The US 
wants to see the Navy and Air Force—forces they see as key in the “war 
on terrorism”—as taking command within the military.  Secondly, marshal 
law was reinstated last week in the province of Aceh, which has been 
rocked by separatist conflict.

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