[Imc] what academics do in their spare time.

[Sascha Meinrath]

howdy all,

for those who like statistics, and want a statistical answer to what is going
on in palm beach, i encourage you to look at the following website:

http://madison.hss.cmu.edu/

just a quick note on the regressions at the bottom of the page (though the
graphs do say it all).  there's a column labeled "P" to the right of a column
labeled "F" -- "P" is the probability of a result being due to chance.  in the
case of these statistics, it is the probability that buchanan would receive
the
number of votes he got by chance.  as the "P" value is 0.000 this means there
is LESS THAN a 1 in ten-thousand chance of these results being attained
randomly.  there's also a column of labeled "99.9% CI" this is a confidence
interval for the number of votes expected for buchanan given the votes for
bush, gore, and total votes respectively.  as you can see, the high end on
each
of these confidence intervals is under 1000 (buchanan got over 3400 at last
count).  thus, one could read the results as saying, we are 99.9% confident
that buchanan would receive votes within this range given either the number of
bush, gore, or total votes respectively.  

--sascha

p.s.  let me know if you want any clarification. 
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