[Peace-discuss] FW: [socialistdiscussion] Perspectives for Russia

[David Johnson via Peace-discuss]

whether a war in Europe or elsewhere is a possibility. My own view was that war between the advanced capitalist countries was no longer an option for the ruling class because of the inherent risks to their rule. We saw how the last world war almost allowed the working class and stalinist states to end capitalism on the continent.

Following the reassertion of command by the capitalist class, the economic reconstruction boom strengthened their rule and the stagnation of the balance of terror between NATO and Warsaw Pact prevented a renewal of armed conflict.

That situation was replaced after 1989 when the stalinists lost control of central and eastern Europe and capitalist counter-revolution replaced the planned economy with almost no bloodshed. Sensing an historic opportunity, the strategists of the western powers developed their plans for the extirpation of workers' states globally and for a thrust into the heart of Eurasia with a view to capturing control of hte vast resources there.

The new pro-capitalist governments from Latvia to Romania sought rapprochement with the USA and mainly with the EU, inviting not only an inflow of goods and capital but also of military bases. Russia began to feel threatened by a renewal of an encirclement, a fear which had driven Stalin to create buffer states between the USSR and the NATO forces, reducing the possibility of surprise attack by the west. So Russian diplomacy sought assurances that the west would not advance further. In particular, the west gave an assurance that it would not try to grab parts of Georgia or Ukraine.

The vicious coup in Kiev showed that the west no longer felt itself bound by its promises. Using puppet governments it attempted to shift the Ukraine bodily towards the EU economically and held out the prospect of a military involvement, taking NATO troops to the very borders of Russia itself. The Russian reaction was to engineer a provincial split in the Dombass and a virtual annexation of the Crimea, to ward off the west's advance. Threats by Russia to cut off or reduce Ukraine's gas supplies could only be shortlived even if possible because of Russia's need to sell. But the new energy treaty between Putin and the Chinese government together with the establishment of a gigantic freetrade area including central Asia point to the Russian government's longer term strategy - a turn away from close economic ties with the west and developing instead a turn to the east. That goal may be some way off. The present struggle over Ukraine still needs to be handled. For what it is worth, the NATO treaty disbars any candidate from joining if it has a border dispute with a neighbour. Putin is therefore maintaining Russian pressure  on the eastern fringes of Ukraine in an attempt to thwart its entry into NATO.

Meanwhile the western reaction has started with a propaganda campaign to soften the resistance of western public opinion to a new cold war  and the sanctions tactic has clearly begun to cause economic problems inside Russia. These problems include the inability to export and import consumer and industrial goods and now the falling price of oil is slashing Russia's revenues which are needed to maintain social security and public services. A massive devaluation of the rouble is draining the previously large gold and currency reserves.  

This is already tantamount to economic warfare and parallel to this we are witnessing the gradual provocative military encirclement of Russia to the north and south and from the west using buildups of land forces, naval vessels and aircraft, and implementation of plans for building missiles site in the Baltic states. The next tactical target for the west is logically  Byelorus which is already suffering from state indebtedness and whic has approached and been temporarily  rebuffed by the IMF.

The lineup of forces is nearing completion.
The west knows that warfare is still excluded because of the continued existence of the Russian nuclear arsenal. And so Russia is to be isolated, weakened and then overturned by forces inside the country. The betting is that Putin can be destabilised by growing economic chaos. He may also be drawn into an armed confrontation perhaps in the Black Sea and publicly defeated and humiliated. He would be isolated from the oligarchs who will use public discontent and opt for a new pro-western political force, opening the gates to full western control of the vast natural resources. The oligarchs will as a reward be allotted a big share in the spoils. 

Once the west has taken political power, it can disarm or transfer the nuclear arsenal, along the lines of what has already happened in Ukraine, the Russian federation can be dismembered and western rule imposed via capital, politics and force of arms. Such a move would give the western economies the prospect of a whole new epoch of growth and expansion, rescuing the rate of profit and driving down the indebtedness of western states through pillaging of the new territories.

Dan

 

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Posted by: dan.armstronguk at yahoo.co.uk 

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