<html><head><style type="text/css"><!-- DIV {margin:0px;} --></style></head><body><div style="font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt"><DIV>I read this late last night, not good for sleep--insane even for Friedman. He doesn't need to get his orders--he senses them. I think it's interesting to look up Friedman's contacts, for what it's worth: Foreign Policy magazine, Hoover Institution, International Crisis Group. </DIV>
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<DIV><A href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Crisis_Group">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Crisis_Group</A></DIV>
<DIV><A href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mois%C3%A9s_Na%C3%ADm">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mois%C3%A9s_Na%C3%ADm</A></DIV>
<DIV><A href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abbas_Milani">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abbas_Milani</A></DIV>
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<DIV>DG</DIV>
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<B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> Robert Naiman <naiman.uiuc@gmail.com><BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B> Peace-discuss List <peace-discuss@lists.chambana.net><BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Wed, May 26, 2010 2:32:23 PM<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> [Peace-discuss] Regime Change Redux? Reading Tom Friedman in Sao Paulo<BR></FONT><BR>
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<H1 style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; FONT-FAMILY: arial; FONT-SIZE: small; FONT-WEIGHT: normal"><A href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/regime-change-redux-readi_b_590677.html" rel=nofollow target=_blank>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/regime-change-redux-readi_b_590677.html</A></SPAN></H1></SPAN><A href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/5/26/15344/2944" rel=nofollow target=_blank>http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/5/26/15344/2944</A><BR><A href="http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/node/591" rel=nofollow target=_blank>http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/node/591</A>
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<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><BR>Sao Paulo - <EM style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; FONT-STYLE: italic; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">New York Times</EM> columnist Thomas Friedman is <A style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; COLOR: rgb(0,136,195); BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/26/opinion/26friedman.html" rel=nofollow target=_blank>on the warpath</A>.
Not only against his "Great Satan" of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but also against Brazil's President Lula and Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan, because they had the temerity to succeed in negotiating an agreement with Iran to try to de-escalate the confrontation between the United States and Iran over Iran's nuclear program without the subsequent approval of Washington. [Apparently Brazil and Turkey <A style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; COLOR: rgb(0,136,195); BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/us-media-censors-us-suppo_b_588470.html" rel=nofollow target=_blank>had White House approval to try - a week before the effort</A>, but it seems that they did not have White House approval to succeed.]</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Friedman claims that a May 17 picture of Iran's president joining Lula and Erdogan "with raised arms" after their signing of a "putative deal" to defuse the crisis over Iran's "nuclear weapons program" [does the <EM style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; FONT-STYLE: italic; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">New York Times</EM> do fact-checking on Friedman?] was "about as ugly as it gets."</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">If it's literally true that that picture was "as ugly as it gets," then presumably that would imply that it was at least as ugly - if not more ugly - than, for example, the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, an invasion which was clearly illegal under the U.N. Charter, as former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan <A style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; COLOR: rgb(0,136,195); BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200409/s1200210.htm" rel=nofollow target=_blank>affirmed in 2004</A>, an invasion
which likely resulted in the deaths of <A style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; COLOR: rgb(0,136,195); BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" href="http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/node/156" rel=nofollow target=_blank>more than a million Iraqis</A> - and an invasion which Tom Friedman supported, as he <A style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; COLOR: rgb(0,136,195); BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" href="http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2009/11/29/friedman/index.html" rel=nofollow target=_blank>explained to Charlie Rose in May 2003</A>:</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 7px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(245,240,227); LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 7px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia, Century, Times, serif; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 7px">I think it was unquestionably worth doing, Charlie. I think that, looking back, I now certainly feel I understand more what the war was about . . . . What we needed to do was go over to that part of the world, I'm afraid, and burst that bubble. We needed to go over there basically, and take out a very big stick, right in the heart of that world, and burst that bubble. . . .
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">And what they needed to see was American boys and girls going from house to house, from Basra to Baghdad, and basically saying: which part of this sentence do you understand? You don't think we care about our open society? . . . . Well, Suck. On. This. That, Charlie, was what this war was about.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">We could have hit Saudi Arabia. It was part of that bubble. Could have hit Pakistan. We hit Iraq because we could. That's the real truth.</P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px"></P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">And the comparison of that "ugly" picture to Tom Friedman's "ugly" support of the "ugly" U.S. invasion of Iraq is highly germane in considering Tom Friedman's piece, because if Tom Friedman's rant on Iran were to have a significant influence on the opinions of U.S. policymakers and the U.S. public - sadly, a far from unlikely scenario - the practical consequence would be to significantly increase the likelihood of a future U.S. military confrontation with Iran, as I explain below.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">The first 400 words of Friedman's 850 word piece are devoted to erasing the story of the successful effort by Brazil and Turkey to reach an agreement on Iran's nuclear program - an agreement "nearly identical" to that proposed by the Obama Administration, <EM style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; FONT-STYLE: italic; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">AP</EM> <A style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; COLOR:
rgb(0,136,195); BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/us-media-censors-us-suppo_b_588470.html" rel=nofollow target=_blank>noted in an initial account</A> the day it was announced - by replacing it with a story in which Brazil and Turkey "coddled" a "dictator," thereby "selling out" Iranian "democrats."</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">But the question on the table, as Friedman surely knows perfectly well, is whether 1) the agreement reached by Brazil and Turkey is a basis for further Western diplomatic engagement with Iran on concerns about its nuclear program, or 2) whether the agreement, despite being similar to that proposed a few months ago by the Obama Administration, is useless and should be ignored, and instead the U.S. should push for further sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council and elsewhere, a path which - if recent experience is any guide - could very likely lead to war.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Was it "coddling dictators" when the Obama Administration proposed and supported the fuel swap deal with Iran in October? Is it "coddling dictators" when the U.S. engages in diplomacy with China, Burma, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or Israel? Why would it be "coddling dictators" only to engage in diplomacy with Iran, and only when someone does it successfully without U.S. approval of the result?</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Was it "ugly" when the CIA overthrew Iranian democracy in 1953, punishing Iran for nationalizing its oil wealth? If Tom Friedman has any opinion on this question - highly relevant, surely, to U.S. efforts to promote "regime change" in Iran 50 years later - I have been unable so far to locate it.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Indeed, after his opening 400 word rant on "democracy" and "dictatorship," Friedman concedes that if the U.S. got everything it could want on the nuclear file, the question of "democracy" would have been irrelevant:</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 7px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(245,240,227); LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 7px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia, Century, Times, serif; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 7px">"Sure, had Brazil and Turkey actually persuaded the Iranians to verifiably end their whole suspected nuclear weapons program, America would have endorsed it. But that is not what happened."</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">So, since Friedman finally concedes that "democracy" is not the issue after all, let's consider his subsequent attack on whether the deal is what it claims to be: a credible effort to de-escalate the conflict over Iran's nuclear program.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">To begin with, note his "straw" rhetorical standard: if Brazil and Turkey had persuaded Iran to "to verifiably end their whole suspected nuclear weapons program," that would be sufficient. But since no-one claims that the "nearly identical" deal proposed by the Obama Administration in October would have compelled Iran to "to verifiably end their whole suspected nuclear weapons program," that's an absurd and dishonest standard. If the new deal would be similar to the old deal - indeed, if the U.S. endorsed the provisions of the deal, a week before it was achieved - then to dismiss it is rank hypocrisy and dishonesty.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">As <EM style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; FONT-STYLE: italic; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Reuters</EM> - but not the <EM style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; FONT-STYLE: italic; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">New York Times</EM> - <A style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px;
PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; COLOR: rgb(0,136,195); BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/us-media-censors-us-suppo_b_588470.html" rel=nofollow target=_blank>reported</A>, before President Lula's recent trip to Iran, President Obama sent President Lula a letter.</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 7px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(245,240,227); LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 7px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia, Century, Times, serif; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 7px">In a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva two weeks ago, U.S. president Barack Obama said an Iranian uranium shipment abroad would generate confidence.
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">"From our point of view, a decision by Iran to send 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium abroad, would generate confidence and reduce regional tensions by cutting Iran's stockpile," Obama said, according to excerpts from the letter translated into Portuguese and seen by Reuters.</P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px"></P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Now Friedman writes:</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 7px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(245,240,227); LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 7px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia, Century, Times, serif; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 7px">Under the May 17 deal, it has supposedly agreed to send some 2,640 pounds from its stockpile to Turkey for conversion into the type of nuclear fuel needed to power Tehran's medical reactor - a fuel that cannot be used for a bomb. But that would still leave Iran with a roughly 2,200-pound uranium stockpile, which it still refuses to put under international inspection and is free to augment and continue to reprocess to the higher levels needed for a bomb. Experts say it would only take months for Iran to again amass sufficient quantity for a nuclear weapon.</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">2,640 pounds is 1,200 kilograms (to use the units that everyone else is using.) So, in attacking this provision of the deal (that is, the amount of LEU transferred), Friedman is attacking a provision that was explicitly endorsed by President Obama a week before the deal was signed - although, to be fair, you wouldn't know that if you were relying on the <EM style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; FONT-STYLE: italic; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">New York Times</EM> for your information.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Friedman claims that Iran refuses to put its (low-enriched) uranium stockpile under IAEA inspection, but this assertion is verifiably false - and the <EM style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; FONT-STYLE: italic; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">New York Times</EM> <STRONG style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">should publish a correction</STRONG>.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">>From the International Atomic Energy Agency's <A style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; COLOR: rgb(0,136,195); BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" href="http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2010/gov2010-10.pdf" rel=nofollow target=_blank>February 18, 2010 report</A>:</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 7px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(245,240,227); LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 7px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia, Century, Times, serif; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 7px">The nuclear material at FEP [i.e. the Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz] (including the feed, product and tails), as well as all installed cascades and the feed and withdrawal stations, are subject to Agency containment and surveillance.</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Indeed, as <EM style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; FONT-STYLE: italic; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">International Herald Tribune</EM>/<EM style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; FONT-STYLE: italic; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">New York Times</EM> columnist Roger Cohen <A style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE:
none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; COLOR: rgb(0,136,195); BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/21/opinion/21iht-edcohen.html" rel=nofollow target=_blank>recently wrote</A>, in a column supporting the fuel swap and criticizing the Obama Administration for summarily dismissing it:</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 7px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(245,240,227); LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 7px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia, Century, Times, serif; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 7px">Speaking of facts, I must get a little technical here. Iran has been producing, under International Atomic Energy Agency inspection, LEU (enriched to about 5 percent)."</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Since the process is under IAEA inspection, it's fundamentally untrue to claim that Iran is "free to augment and continue to reprocess to the higher levels needed for a bomb." Since this material is under supervision, either 1) the IAEA would know that Iran was doing this, and therefore the world would know, or 2) Iran would have to remove the material from IAEA supervision in order to do this, and the world would know that it had done so.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Finally, it is profoundly misleading to claim that "experts say it would only take months for Iran to again amass sufficient quantity for a nuclear weapon." Plausibly, in months of enriching, Iran could amass enough low-enriched uranium so that this quanity of uranium - <STRONG style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">if the uranium were enriched further to weapons-grade</STRONG> - would be sufficient for a nuclear weapon. But <STRONG style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE:
none; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">if it is not enriched further</STRONG>, then <STRONG style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">no amount</STRONG> of low-enriched uranium can produce a nuclear weapon. The misleading suggestion of Friedman's sentence is that within months Iran would have enough enriched uranium to be in a position to produce a nuclear weapon, but so long as that LEU is under international inspection, it is <STRONG style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP:
0px">useless</STRONG> for a nuclear weapon, and how long it might take Iran to produce a weapon if it were to remove the LEU from IAEA inspection - a flagrant defiance that would clearly unite the world against it - is another question entirely.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Friedman then claims that "what this deal really does" is "weaken the global coalition to pressure Iran to open its nuclear facilities to U.N. inspectors." Again, this is a profoundly misleading claim, because Iran's facilities are <STRONG style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">already</STRONG> open to UN inspectors - not as completely open as those inspectors would like, but sufficiently open for them to make statements like:</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 7px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(245,240,227); LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 7px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia, Century, Times, serif; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 7px">The nuclear material at FEP [the Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz](including the feed, product and tails), as well as all installed cascades and the feed and withdrawal stations, are subject to Agency containment and surveillance.</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Friedman erases this important fact completely with his assertion.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Finally - and crucially - Friedman argues that the only solution to the problem of Iran's nuclear program is regime change. If Iran had a government we liked, we wouldn't have to worry about its nuclear program; and so long as Iran has a government we don't like, we'll always have to worry.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Here, Friedman is in effect supporting a U.S. or Israeli or U.S./Israeli war with Iran (any distinction between these three events is euphemism; in the eyes of the world, it's all the same.) And anyone who supports Friedman's argument, in the current political context, is a de facto supporter of war.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">And the reason is this. Anyone who is following this issue knows that the Israeli government and the U.S. Congress (at the risk of appearing redundant) have sought to establish a short timetable for dealing with the dispute over Iran's nuclear program - a timetable on the order of magnitude of Friedman's alarmism about Iran's nuclear capacity - a timetable more like "months" than "years." There is not much realistic prospect that Iran will have a government that Tom Friedman likes - short of an extremely unlikely massive external intervention - in that short timetable.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">If you concede the short timetable - which Friedman does not contest, and appears to endorse - then the choices are diplomacy <STRONG style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">with the present government</STRONG> or war (a blockade regime of "crippling sanctions," if it could be achieved, would be tantamount to war, both because a blockade is literally an act of war and because Iran would be virtually certain to respond to a blockade - or anything tantamount to a blockade - with similarly aggressive acts that would be very likely to
escalate.)</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">The fact that diplomacy with Iran means <STRONG style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">diplomacy with the present government of Iran</STRONG>, is an essential point which should be obvious, but isn't, apparently. Many people would like us to believe that the so-called "Green Movement" in Iran has, in some sense divorced from the practical realities of international relations, a stronger claim to represent Iran than the present Iranian government. This is mainly wishful thinking; little evidence that would be accepted by a disinterested
observer has been presented to support this claim, and plenty of evidence supports the opposite claim.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">But whatever one thinks about these claims and counter-claims is immaterial to the issue at hand, because the "Green Movement" does not control the Iranian government, there is no realistic prospect that it will control the Iranian government in the forseeable future, and the United States of America has neither the moral right nor the physical capacity to dictate who shall govern Iran. If the United States has a problem with Iran, it has to deal with the present Iranian government, just as when the U.S. has a problem with China, it has to deal with the present Chinese government, not some self-selected group of Chinese dissidents. President Obama <A style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;
BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; COLOR: rgb(0,136,195); BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5G12Fr9zz4" rel=nofollow target=_blank>articulated this basic reality eloquently</A> during his election campaign; it's a shame that his Administration is now apparently largely reverting to the policy of the Bush Administration which Obama the candidate so eloquently criticized.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">If you don't want war, but you don't want to deal with the present Iranian government, then the only realistic alternative is "long-term-containment." But if that's really your choice, as opposed to a dishonest support of military confrontation, then you have to oppose the claim that the house is on fire. You have to concede that the situation months from now, if there is no deal, will be an objectively unremarkable extrapolation of the status quo which dishonest people with tremendous media access and powerful friends will claim to be a disaster requiring a dangerous escalation of confrontation: more sanctions, more Iranian enrichment, and a bigger Iranian stockpile of low-enriched uranium than exists today.</P>
<P style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; LIST-STYLE-TYPE: none; MARGIN: 0px 0px 14px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px">It's far from obvious why a bigger Iranian stockpile of low-enriched uranium than exists today is a clear and present danger to humanity, but those that claim that it is have a responsibility to explain to the rest of us why they are so adamant in dismissing the only realistic option on the table for doing something about it.</P><BR>-- <BR>Robert Naiman<BR>Policy Director<BR>Just Foreign Policy<BR><A href="http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/" rel=nofollow target=_blank>www.justforeignpolicy.org</A><BR><A href="http://us.mg2.mail.yahoo.com/dc/mailto%3A%25e%25" rel=nofollow target=_blank ymailto="mailto:naiman@justforeignpolicy.org">naiman@justforeignpolicy.org</A><BR><BR>Urge Congress to Support a Timetable for Military
Withdrawal from Afghanistan<BR><A href="http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/act/feingold-mcgovern" rel=nofollow target=_blank>http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/act/feingold-mcgovern</A><BR><BR><BR></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV><BR>-- <BR>This message has been scanned for viruses and <BR>dangerous content by <A href="http://www.mailscanner.info/" rel=nofollow target=_blank><B>MailScanner</B></A>, and is <BR>believed to be clean.
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