<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold; ">Egypt: Mubarak Reveals a Brutal Plan to Hold Power</span></div><div><div id="yn-story" class="ult-section mod normal-entry"><div class="hd">
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By TONY KARON
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<abbr title="2011-02-02T20:25:00-0800" class="recenttimedate">37 mins ago</abbr></div>
<div class="yn-story-content"><p>The "Berlin Wall" analogy that has been a staple of
Western media discussion of the struggle for power in Egypt looked way
off the mark on Wednesday as the regime unleashed a brutal strategy for
remaining in power that might make "Prague Spring" a more apposite
European analogy. The Berlin Wall's rupture saw East Germany's communist
regime collapse; the democratic uprising in Czechoslovakia in 1968 was
crushed by Russian tanks.</p><p>The Egyptian army, which had previously vowed not to
use force against the protestors, stood by passively as thousands of
pro-government thugs were bused in and bludgeoned their way into the
peaceful anti-Mubarak crowd on Cairo's Tahrir Square. The violent chaos
that raged for hours into the night left hundreds wounded and at least
three dead. It made clear that earlier suggestions that the army was
siding with the protestors were premature. <span class="see"><a href="http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/time/wl_time/storytext/08599204587000/39993191/SIG=11vu8oc6o/*http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2045788,00.html" target="_blank">(Were the army and the cops in cahoots all this time?)</a></span></p><p>The violent backlash by regime supporters on
Wednesday also underscored Mubarak's determination to defy the demand by
protestors - and implicitly by the <a id="KonaLink0" target="undefined" class="kLink" style="" href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20110203/wl_time/08599204587000#"><font style="color: #366388 !important; font-family:arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif;font-weight:400;font-size:13px;position:static;" color="#366388"><span class="kLink" style="color: rgb(54, 99, 136); font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-weight: 400; font-size: 13px; position: static;">Obama</span></font></a>
Administration - that he step down immediately. Instead, he intends to
remain in charge until elections scheduled for September, supervising
what he promised would be an "orderly" transition of power. And he and
the top military men around him appear to have designed a strategy to
keep hold of the reins until then. The opposition insist that he go
immediately, but Wednesday's events raised the question of whether they
have a winning strategy of their own. </p><p>Tuesday's "March of Millions" may have been the
protest movement's crescendo, a massive show of strength of the street
that prompted Mubarak to announce that he would not seek reelection, and
would spend the next seven months presiding over a process of reforms
and consultation in order to affect an <a id="KonaLink1" target="undefined" class="kLink" style="" href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20110203/wl_time/08599204587000#"><font style="color: #366388 !important; font-family:arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif;font-weight:400;font-size:13px;position:static;" color="#366388"><span class="kLink" style="color: rgb(54, 99, 136); font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-weight: 400; font-size: 13px; position: static;">orderly </span><span class="kLink" style="color: rgb(54, 99, 136); font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-weight: 400; font-size: 13px; position: static;">transfer</span></font></a>
of power. That was never going to be acceptable to many of the
demonstrators on the streets, nor to the U.S. President Obama on Tuesday
demanded that the transition begin "now," and when asked Wednesday what
"now" meant, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said "yesterday."
<span class="see"><a href="http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/time/wl_time/storytext/08599204587000/39993191/SIG=11v1a8fe3/*http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,2044357,00.html" target="_blank">(See pictures of clashes on the streets of Cairo.)</a></span></p><p>But the Egyptian regime was contemptuous of Obama's
demand, saying if the U.S. wants an orderly transition, as it insists it
does, "We can't do that if we have a vacuum of power", as one Egyptian
official told the New York <i>Times.</i> Mubarak's retirement
announcement was designed for the army, as well as the many millions of
Egyptians caught somewhere between the protesters and the hardcore
supporters of the regime. His transition plan appears to have been
embraced by the military - which, after all, has been the source of
political power in Egypt since the 1952 coup that overturned the
monarchy, and whose top echelon is unlikely to want to relinquish
control of the transition process to forces unknown. The army on
Wednesday issued a statement telling the protesters that their demands
had been heard, and that it was now time to go home.</p><p>And if the army was willing to see Mubarak make a
dignified exit while keeping the political reform process in friendly
hands - most importantly, those of Vice President and intelligence chief
Omar Suleiman - the regime's hardcore support base is even more
determined not to see him ejected from office just yet. Many of the
thugs attacking protesters turned out to have been policemen or their
family members, but that in itself was a reminder that there are tens of
thousands of Egyptians deeply invested in a brutal regime they have
served as enforcers on the ground, and many are fearful enough of losing
its protection that they're willing to spill Egyptian blood, as they
always have been, to keep their paymasters in place.</p><p>Of greater concern to the protest movement may be the
reality that there are millions of ordinary Egyptians to whom Mubarak's
proposed graceful exit over seven months sounds reasonable, and who
desperately want an end to the economic and security chaos that has
disrupted their lives over the past week, and threatens to turn even
more violent. Even among those who have supported the protests, not all
are convinced of the wisdom of further confrontation. The regime will be
hoping to divide opposition political leaders, hoping that some can be
tempted to begin negotiations with the regime even while others insist
on Mubarak's departure as a precondition. <span class="see"><a href="http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/time/wl_time/storytext/08599204587000/39993191/SIG=128ln9dbm/*http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2011/02/01/the-gop-on-egypt-and-obama/" target="_blank">(See the American GOP's line on Egypt [EM] and Obama.)</a></span></p><p>The democracy movement puts pressure on the regime to
the extent that their presence on the streets and strike actions
disrupt its functioning. But such action also disrupts the lives of many
millions of ordinary people. By unleashing its thugs and creating a
situation of violent chaos, the regime also creates a pretext for the
military to simply clear everyone off the streets. Asking soldiers to
fire on peaceful demonstrators could create a crisis within the ranks,
but asking them to clear rival political camps off the street to put a
stop to violent chaos (even if that chaos was deliberately instigated)
may be a different prospect. The army is urging everyone to go home;
sooner or later they will become more insistent in that demand. And as
things stand, once the protestors are off the street the leverage of the
opposition leaders diminishes.</p><p>So the regime appears to be calculating that time -
as well as intervening to create violent chaos among demonstrators on
the street - actually works in favor of their maintaining control for
now. Sure, the U.S. is publicly urging him to start the political
transition "yesterday," as <a id="KonaLink4" target="undefined" class="kLink" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(54, 99, 136); border-bottom-style: dotted;" href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20110203/wl_time/08599204587000#"><font style="color: #366388 !important; font-family:arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif;font-weight:400;font-size:13px;position:static;" color="#366388"><span class="kLink" style="color: rgb(54, 99, 136); font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-weight: 400; font-size: 13px; position: static;">White </span><span class="kLink" style="color: rgb(54, 99, 136); font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; font-weight: 400; font-size: 13px; position: static;">House</span></font></a>
press secretary Robert Gibbs put it on Wednesday, but Mubarak and
Suleiman may have little incentive to pay Obama much heed right now. <span class="see"><a href="http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/time/wl_time/storytext/08599204587000/39993191/SIG=11vr8vl55/*http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2045870,00.html#comments" target="_blank">(Comment on this story.)</a></span> </p><p>The regime's strategy is premised on the idea that it
can make the protesters' current strategy - a massive show of strength
through public marches, vowing to stay on the streets until Mubarak goes
- work in its favor by turning the army and many ordinary citizens
against further street action. If Mubarak's men are right, the dilemma
facing the protest leadership will be finding plausible strategies for a
more sustained challenge to Mubarak if he manages to tough out the
current standoff on the streets.</p></div></div></div></div></body></html>