<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">Here is Fisk's report of the happenings on Feb.10, 2011. He says "<i><font class="Apple-style-span" face="Verdana">Yet for Mubarak's opponents, today will not be a day of joy and rejoicing and victory but a potential bloodbath."</font></i><div>Everyone is holding their breath.<div><div>--mkb</div><div><h1><font class="Apple-style-span" size="3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px;">As Mubarak Clings On... What Now For Egypt?</span></font></h1><p>The fury of a people whose hopes were raised and then dashed</p><p class="byLine"><span id="date">February 11, 2011</span>
<br>
<br>
By <b>Robert Fisk</b>
<br>Source: Independent
<br><br>
<a href="http://zcommunications.org/zspace/robertfisk">Robert Fisk's ZSpace Page</a>
<br>
</p><div>
<br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">To
the horror of Egyptians and the world, President Hosni Mubarak
haggard and apparently disoriented appeared on state television last
night to refuse every demand of his opponents by staying in power for at
least another five months. The Egyptian army, which had already
initiated a virtual coup d'ιtat, was nonplussed by the President's
speech which had been widely advertised by both his friends and his
enemies as a farewell address after 30 years of dictatorship. The vast
crowds in Tahrir Square were almost insane with anger and resentment.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">Mubarak
tried unbelievably to placate his infuriated people with a promise
to investigate the killings of his opponents in what he called "the
unfortunate, tragic events", apparently unaware of the mass fury
directed at his dictatorship for his three decades of corruption,
brutality and repression.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">The
old man had originally appeared ready to give up, faced at last with
the rage of millions of Egyptians and the power of history, sealed off
from his ministers like a bacillus, only grudgingly permitted by his own
army from saying goodbye to the people who hated him.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">Yet
the very moment that Hosni Mubarak embarked on what was supposed to be
his final speech, he made it clear that he intended to cling to power.
To the end, the President's Information Minister insisted he would not
leave. There were those who, to the very last moment, feared that
Mubarak's departure would be cosmetic even though his presidency had
evaporated in the face of his army's decision to take power earlier in
the evening.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">History
may later decide that the army's lack of faith in Mubarak effectively
lost his presidency after three decades of dictatorship, secret police
torture and government corruption. Confronted by even greater
demonstrations on the streets of Egypt today, even the army could not
guarantee the safety of the nation. Yet for Mubarak's opponents, today
will not be a day of joy and rejoicing and victory but a potential
bloodbath.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">But
was this a victory for Mubarak or a military coup d'ιtat? Can Egypt
ever be free? For the army generals to insist upon his departure was as
dramatic as it was dangerous. Are they, a state within a state, now
truly the guardians of the nation, defenders of the people or will
they continue to support a man who must be judged now as close to
insanity? The chains which bound the military to the corruption of
Mubarak's regime were real. Are they to stand by democracy or cement a
new Mubarak regime?<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">Even
as Mubarak was still speaking, the millions in Tahrir Square roared
their anger and fury and disbelief. Of course, the millions of
courageous Egyptians who fought the whole apparatus of state security
run by Mubarak should have been the victors. But as yesterday
afternoon's events proved all too clearly, it was the senior generals
who enjoy the luxury of hotel chains, shopping malls, real estate and
banking concessions from the same corrupt regime who permitted Mubarak
to survive. At an ominous meeting of the Supreme Council of the
Egyptian Armed Forces, Defence Minister Mohamed Tantawi one of
Mubarak's closest friends agreed to meet the demands of the millions
of democracy protesters, without stating that the regime would itself be
dissolved. Mubarak himself, commander-in-chief of the army, was not
permitted to attend.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">But
this is a Middle Eastern epic, one of those incremental moments when
the Arab people forgotten, chastised, infantilised, repressed, often
beaten, tortured too many times, occasionally hanged will still strive
to give the great wheel of history a shove, and shake off the burden of
their lives. Last night, however, dictatorship had still won. Democracy
had lost.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">All
day, the power of the people had grown as the prestige of the President
and his hollow party collapsed. The vast crowds in Tahrir Square began
yesterday to move out over all of central Cairo, even moving behind the
steel gates of the People's Assembly, setting up their tents in front of
the pseudo-Greek parliament building in a demand for new and fair
elections. Today, they were planning to enter the parliament itself,
taking over the symbol of Mubarak's fake "democracy". Fierce arguments
among the army hierarchy and apparently between Vice-President Omar
Suleiman and Mubarak himself continued while strikes and industrial
stoppages spread across Egypt. Well over seven million protesters were
estimated to be on the streets of Egypt yesterday the largest
political demonstration in the country's modern history, greater even
than the six million who attended the funeral of Gamal Abdul Nasser, the
first Egyptian dictator whose rule continued through Anwar Sadat's vain
presidency and the three dead decades of Mubarak.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">It
was too early, last night, for the crowds in Tahrir Square to
understand the legal complexities of Mubarak's speech. But it was
patronising, self-serving and immensely dangerous. The Egyptian
constitution insists that presidential power must pass to the speaker of
parliament, a colourless Mubarak crony called Fatih Srour, and
elections fair ones, if this can be imagined held within 60 days.
But many believe that Suleiman may choose to rule by some new emergency
law and then push Mubarak out of power, staking out a timetable for new
and fraudulent elections and yet another terrible epoch of dictatorship.
The truth, however, is that<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">the
millions of Egyptians who have tried to unseat their Great Dictator
regard their constitution and the judiciary and the entire edifice of
government institutions with the same contempt as they do Mubarak.
They want a new constitution, new laws to limit the powers and tenure of
presidents, new and early elections which will reflect the "will of the
people" rather than the will of the president or the transition
president, or of generals and brigadiers and state security thugs.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">Last
night, a military officer guarding the tens of thousands celebrating in
Cairo threw down his rifle and joined the demonstrators, yet another
sign of the ordinary Egyptian soldier's growing sympathy for the
democracy demonstrators. We had witnessed many similar sentiments from
the army over the past two weeks. But the critical moment came on the
evening of 30 January when, it is now clear, Mubarak ordered the
Egyptian Third Army to crush the demonstrators in Tahrir Square with
their tanks after flying F-16 fighter bombers at low level over the
protesters.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">Many
of the senior tank commanders could be seen tearing off their headsets
over which they had received the fatal orders to use their mobile
phones. They were, it now transpires, calling their own military
families for advice. Fathers who had spent their lives serving the
Egyptian army told their sons to disobey, that they must never kill
their own people.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">Thus
when General Hassan al-Rawani told the massive crowds yesterday evening
that "everything you want will be realised all your demands will be
met", the people cried back: "The army and the people stand together
the army and the people are united. The army and the people belong to
one hand."<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">Last
night, the Cairo court prevented three ministers so far unnamed,
although they almost certainly inc-lude the Minister of Interior from
leaving Egypt.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">But
neither the army nor Vice-President Suleiman are likely to be able to
face the far greater demonstrations planned for today, a fact that was
conveyed to 83-year-old Mubarak by Tantawi himself, standing next to
Suleiman. Tantawi and another general believed to be the commander of
the Cairo military area called Washington, according to a senior
Egyptian officer, to pass on the news to Robert Gates at the Pentagon.
It must have been a sobering moment. For days, the White House had been
grimly observing the mass demonstrations in Cairo, fearful that they
would turn into a mythical Islamist monster, frightened that Mubarak
might leave, even more terrified he might not.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">The
events of the past 12 hours have not, alas, been a victory for the
West. American and European leaders who rejoiced at the fall of
communist dictatorships have sat glumly regarding the extraordinary and
wildly hopeful events in Cairo a victory of morality over corruption
and cruelty with the same enthusiasm as many East European dictators
watched the fall of their Warsaw Pact nations. Calls for stability and
an "orderly" transition of power were, in fact, appeals for Mubarak to
stay in power as he is still trying to do rather than a ringing
endorsement of the demands of the overwhelming pro-democracy movement
that should have struck him down.<o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<font color="#000000"><b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt">Timeline...</span></b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<font color="#000000"><b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt">11.00</span></b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"> As demonstrators mass in Cairo's Tahrir Square, the Foreign Minister warns of a military coup if protests continue<o:p></o:p></span></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<font color="#000000"><b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt">15.15</span></b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"> The Egyptian Prime Minister, Ahmed Shafiq, tells the BBC Arabic Service that Mubarak may step down<o:p></o:p></span></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<font color="#000000"><b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt">15.20</span></b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"> The
secretary general of the ruling NDP party, Hossan Badrawy, says he
expects Mubarak to make an announcement that will satisfy protesters'
demands<o:p></o:p></span></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<font color="#000000"><b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt">15.30</span></b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"> An Egyptian army commander tells protesters in Tahrir Square that: "Everything you want will be realised"<o:p></o:p></span></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<font color="#000000"><b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt">15.45</span></b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"> Egypt's
military council releases a statement saying it is in continuous
session and the army will take necessary measures to "safeguard the
homeland", in the clearest sign that Mubarak will be on his way out soon<o:p></o:p></span></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<font color="#000000"><b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt">16.04</span></b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"> The Information Minister, Anas el-Fekky, says Mubarak is in fact not stepping down and remains Egypt's President<o:p></o:p></span></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<font color="#000000"><b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt">16.15</span></b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"> Al
Arabiya television station carries an unconfirmed report that Mubarak
has travelled to the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh with his army
chief of staff<o:p></o:p></span></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<font color="#000000"><b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt">17.11</span></b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"> A senior member of the Muslim Brotherhood, the biggest opposition group, says he fears the army is staging a coup<o:p></o:p></span></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<font color="#000000"><b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt">20.50</span></b><span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"> Defying expectations Mubarak speaks on state TV, giving no indication that he will step down soon<o:p></o:p></span></font></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><font color="#000000">Source: <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-as-mubarak-clings-on-what-now-for-egypt-2211287.html">The Independent</a><o:p></o:p></font></span></div><div style="margin-top: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; ">
<span style="font-family: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; font-size: 10pt"><o:p><font color="#000000"> </font></o:p></span></div></div></div></div></body></html>