<html><head><style type="text/css"><!-- DIV {margin:0px;} --></style></head><body><div style="font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt;color:#000000;"><DIV>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNoSpacing><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><FONT color=#000000>The full political cost will become clear in the period of transition. The anti-Gaddafi coalition comprises four different political trends: radical Islamists, royalists, tribalists, and secular middle class activists produced by a Western-oriented educational system.<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O:P></O:P></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNoSpacing><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><O:P><FONT color=#000000> </FONT></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNoSpacing><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><FONT color=#000000>Of these, only the radical Islamists, especially those linked organisationally to Al Qaeda, have battle experience.<O:P></O:P></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNoSpacing><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><O:P><FONT color=#000000> </FONT></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNoSpacing><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><FONT color=#000000>They – like NATO – have the most to gain in the short term from a process that is more military than political. This is why the most likely outcome of a military resolution in Libya will be an Afghanistan-type civil war.</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNoSpacing><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><FONT color=#000000></FONT></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNoSpacing><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'verdana', 'sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><FONT color=#000000><A href="http://www.zcommunications.org/libya-politics-of-humanitarian-intervention-by-mahmood-mamdani">http://www.zcommunications.org/libya-politics-of-humanitarian-intervention-by-mahmood-mamdani</A><O:P></O:P></FONT></SPAN></P></DIV></div></body></html>