<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">This report is a snow job, and is not confirmed by other world authorities on the Chernobyl accident.<div>Right up front UCS states:</div><div><br></div><div><i>The international expert group predicts that among the 600 000 persons
receiving more significant exposures (liquidators working in 1986-87,
evacuees, and residents of the most ‘contaminated’ areas), the possible
increase in cancer mortality due to this radiation exposure might be <b>up
to </b>a few per cent. This might eventually represent <b>up to</b> four thousand
fatal cancers in addition to the approximately 100 000 fatal cancers to
be expected due to all other causes in this population. Among the 5
million persons residing in other ‘contaminated’ areas, the doses are
much lower and any projected increases are more speculative, but are
expected to make a difference <b>of less than</b> one per cent in cancer
mortality.</i></div><div><i><br></i></div><div>Note the words<i> "up to" <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">on the third and fourth lines, and "of less than in the final sentence, meaning the result might well be zero! Pretty sneaky to use this for the their conclusions. UCS has led a campaign against nuclear power for some time. </span></i></div><div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><br></span></i></div><div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Aside from that, one can consult a comprehensive review from the Chernobyl Forum, 2003, a large collaboration from world health authorities, which states:</span></i></div><div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><br></span></i></div><div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">
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<div class="MsoNormal"><i>Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer incidence
among those exposed at </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>a young age, there is no clearly demonstrated increase in
the incidence of solid cancers </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>or leukaemia due to radiation in the most affected
populations. There was, however, </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>an increase in psychological problems among the affected
population, compounded </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>economic depression that followed the break-up of the Soviet
Union.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>It is impossible to assess reliably, with any precision,
numbers of fatal cancers caused </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>by radiation exposure due to the Chernobyl accident — or
indeed the impact of the </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>stress and anxiety induced by the accident and the response
to it. Small differences in </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>the assumptions concerning radiation risks can lead to large
differences in the predicted</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<i>health consequences, which are therefore
highly uncertain. …</i><!--EndFragment--></span></i></div><div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><i><br></i></span></i></div><div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal; "><br></span></i><div>Quoting another report from the World Health Organization (2006): </div><div><br></div><div><!--StartFragment-->
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family:Arial;
color:black"><i>Apart from the large increase in thyroid cancer incidence in young
people, <b>there are at present no clearly demonstrated radiation-related
increases in cancer risk.</b> This should not, however, be interpreted to mean that
no increase has in fact occurred: based on the experience of other populations
exposed to ionising radiation, a small increase in the relative risk of cancer
is expected, even at the low to moderate doses received. Although it is
expected that epidemiological studies will have difficulty identifying such a
risk, it may nevertheless translate into a substantial number of
radiation-related cancer cases in the future, given the very large number of
individuals exposed.</i></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Times"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family:Arial;
color:black"><i><br></i></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family:Arial;
color:black">Definitive conclusions, therefore are hard to come by, so quoting cancer related deaths in the multiple thousands and above, as UCS does, is irresponsible<i>. </i>One might furthermore note that the estimates on which most of these reports are based use the LNT model, which is unproven for low radiation doses. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family:Arial;
color:black"><i><br></i></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family:Arial;
color:black"><i>--mkb</i></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family:Arial;
color:black"><i><br></i></span></span></div>
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</div><div><br><div><div>On Apr 7, 2011, at 2:45 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type="cite"><div>Two noteworthy articles from the Union of Concerned Scientists, one on<br>careful calculation of excess cancer deaths from Chernobyl, the other on<br>internal documents obtained from NRC via FOIA showing concerns about<br>station blackout prior to Fukushima catastrophe:<br><br> <a href="http://allthingsnuclear.org/tagged/Japan_nuclear">http://allthingsnuclear.org/tagged/Japan_nuclear</a><br><br>_______________________________________________<br>Peace-discuss mailing list<br><a href="mailto:Peace-discuss@lists.chambana.net">Peace-discuss@lists.chambana.net</a><br>http://lists.chambana.net/mailman/listinfo/peace-discuss<br></div></blockquote></div><br></div></div></body></html>