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"Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer incidence
among those exposed at a young age..."!<span
class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"></span><br>
<br>
Obviously there's no reason to consider them. <br>
<br>
<br>
On 4/7/11 11:22 PM, Morton K. Brussel wrote:
<blockquote
cite="mid:C677EAA8-5286-4963-83B2-73CCD2B4DC9E@illinois.edu"
type="cite">This report is a snow job, and is not confirmed by
other world authorities on the Chernobyl accident.
<div>Right up front UCS states:</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><i>The international expert group predicts that among the
600 000 persons receiving more significant exposures
(liquidators working in 1986-87, evacuees, and residents of
the most ‘contaminated’ areas), the possible increase in
cancer mortality due to this radiation exposure might be <b>up
to </b>a few per cent. This might eventually represent <b>up
to</b> four thousand fatal cancers in addition to the
approximately 100 000 fatal cancers to be expected due to all
other causes in this population. Among the 5 million persons
residing in other ‘contaminated’ areas, the doses are much
lower and any projected increases are more speculative, but
are expected to make a difference <b>of less than</b> one per
cent in cancer mortality.</i></div>
<div><i><br>
</i></div>
<div>Note the words<i> "up to" <span class="Apple-style-span"
style="font-style: normal;">on the third and fourth lines,
and "of less than in the final sentence, meaning the result
might well be zero! Pretty sneaky to use this for the their
conclusions. UCS has led a campaign against nuclear power
for some time. </span></i></div>
<div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><br>
</span></i></div>
<div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Aside
from that, one can consult a comprehensive review from the
Chernobyl Forum, 2003, a large collaboration from world
health authorities, which states:</span></i></div>
<div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><br>
</span></i></div>
<div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">
<!--StartFragment-->
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>Apart from the dramatic increase
in thyroid cancer incidence
among those exposed at </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>a young age, there is no clearly
demonstrated increase in
the incidence of solid cancers </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>or leukaemia due to radiation in
the most affected
populations. There was, however, </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>an increase in psychological
problems among the affected
population, compounded </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>economic depression that followed
the break-up of the Soviet
Union.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>It is impossible to assess
reliably, with any precision,
numbers of fatal cancers caused </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>by radiation exposure due to the
Chernobyl accident — or
indeed the impact of the </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>stress and anxiety induced by the
accident and the response
to it. Small differences in </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>the assumptions concerning
radiation risks can lead to large
differences in the predicted</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<i>health consequences, which are therefore
highly uncertain. …</i><!--EndFragment--></span></i></div>
<div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><i><br>
</i></span></i></div>
<div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><br>
</span></i>
<div>Quoting another report from the World Health Organization
(2006): </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><!--StartFragment-->
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span
style="font-family: Arial; color: black;"><i>Apart from
the large increase in thyroid cancer incidence in
young
people, <b>there are at present no clearly
demonstrated radiation-related
increases in cancer risk.</b> This should not,
however, be interpreted to mean that
no increase has in fact occurred: based on the
experience of other populations
exposed to ionising radiation, a small increase in the
relative risk of cancer
is expected, even at the low to moderate doses
received. Although it is
expected that epidemiological studies will have
difficulty identifying such a
risk, it may nevertheless translate into a substantial
number of
radiation-related cancer cases in the future, given
the very large number of
individuals exposed.</i></span></span><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Times;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span
style="font-family: Arial; color: black;"><i><br>
</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span
style="font-family: Arial; color: black;">Definitive
conclusions, therefore are hard to come by, so quoting
cancer related deaths in the multiple thousands and
above, as UCS does, is irresponsible<i>. </i>One might
furthermore note that the estimates on which most of
these reports are based use the LNT model, which is
unproven for low radiation doses. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span
style="font-family: Arial; color: black;"><i><br>
</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span
style="font-family: Arial; color: black;"><i>--mkb</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span
style="font-family: Arial; color: black;"><i><br>
</i></span></span></div>
<!--EndFragment-->
</div>
<div><br>
<div>
<div>On Apr 7, 2011, at 2:45 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:</div>
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
<blockquote type="cite">
<div>Two noteworthy articles from the Union of Concerned
Scientists, one on<br>
careful calculation of excess cancer deaths from
Chernobyl, the other on<br>
internal documents obtained from NRC via FOIA showing
concerns about<br>
station blackout prior to Fukushima catastrophe:<br>
<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://allthingsnuclear.org/tagged/Japan_nuclear">http://allthingsnuclear.org/tagged/Japan_nuclear</a><br>
<br>
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</blockquote>
</div>
<br>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
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