<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">Thanks, Wayne; I should have written potassium iodide, KI. <div><br></div><div>--Mort</div><div><br><div><div>On Apr 8, 2011, at 11:26 AM, E. Wayne Johnson wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type="cite">
<div bgcolor="#ffffff" text="#000000">
Mort, does the K. stand for Potassium?<br>
<br>
I think you mean Iodine. <br>
<br>
(potassium iodide? oK? sodium iodide? NAh?)<br>
<br>
<br>
On 4/8/2011 11:45 PM, Morton K. Brussel wrote:
<blockquote cite="mid:E9F7F697-C4A0-467F-BB9F-C30D68913519@illinois.edu" type="cite">Yes, this was serious, and could have been avoided if
potassium had been administered in time to children. The Japanese
appear to have learned the lesson. --mkb
<div><br>
<div>
<div>On Apr 7, 2011, at 11:31 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:</div>
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<blockquote type="cite">
<div bgcolor="#ffffff" text="#000000"> "Apart from the dramatic
increase in thyroid cancer incidence among those exposed at a young
age..."!<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"></span><br>
<br>
Obviously there's no reason to consider them. <br>
<br>
<br>
On 4/7/11 11:22 PM, Morton K. Brussel wrote:
<blockquote cite="mid:C677EAA8-5286-4963-83B2-73CCD2B4DC9E@illinois.edu" type="cite">This report is a snow job, and is not confirmed by other
world authorities on the Chernobyl accident.
<div>Right up front UCS states:</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><i>The international expert group predicts that among the
600 000 persons receiving more significant exposures (liquidators
working in 1986-87, evacuees, and residents of the most ‘contaminated’
areas), the possible increase in cancer mortality due to this radiation
exposure might be <b>up to </b>a few per cent. This might eventually
represent <b>up to</b> four thousand fatal cancers in addition to the
approximately 100 000 fatal cancers to be expected due to all other
causes in this population. Among the 5 million persons residing in
other ‘contaminated’ areas, the doses are much lower and any projected
increases are more speculative, but are expected to make a difference <b>of
less than</b> one per cent in cancer mortality.</i></div>
<div><i><br>
</i></div>
<div>Note the words<i> "up to" <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">on the third and fourth lines, and "of
less than in the final sentence, meaning the result might well be zero!
Pretty sneaky to use this for the their conclusions. UCS has led a
campaign against nuclear power for some time. </span></i></div>
<div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><br>
</span></i></div>
<div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Aside
from that, one can consult a comprehensive review from the Chernobyl
Forum, 2003, a large collaboration from world health authorities, which
states:</span></i></div>
<div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><br>
</span></i></div>
<div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">
<!--StartFragment-->
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>Apart from the dramatic increase in
thyroid cancer incidence among those exposed at </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>a young age, there is no clearly
demonstrated increase in the incidence of solid cancers </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>or leukaemia due to radiation in the
most affected populations. There was, however, </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>an increase in psychological problems
among the affected population, compounded </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>economic depression that followed the
break-up of the Soviet Union.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>It is impossible to assess reliably,
with any precision, numbers of fatal cancers caused </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>by radiation exposure due to the
Chernobyl accident — or indeed the impact of the </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>stress and anxiety induced by the
accident and the response to it. Small differences in </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i>the assumptions concerning radiation
risks can lead to large differences in the predicted</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><i> <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<i>health consequences, which are therefore highly uncertain. …</i><!--EndFragment--></span></i></div>
<div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><i><br>
</i></span></i></div>
<div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><br>
</span></i>
<div>Quoting another report from the World Health Organization
(2006): </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><!--StartFragment-->
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: Arial; color: black;"><i>Apart from the large
increase in thyroid cancer incidence in young people, <b>there are at
present no clearly demonstrated radiation-related increases in cancer
risk.</b> This should not, however, be interpreted to mean that no
increase has in fact occurred: based on the experience of other
populations exposed to ionising radiation, a small increase in the
relative risk of cancer is expected, even at the low to moderate doses
received. Although it is expected that epidemiological studies will
have difficulty identifying such a risk, it may nevertheless translate
into a substantial number of radiation-related cancer cases in the
future, given the very large number of individuals exposed.</i></span></span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Times;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: Arial; color: black;"><i><br>
</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: Arial; color: black;">Definitive conclusions,
therefore are hard to come by, so quoting cancer related deaths in the
multiple thousands and above, as UCS does, is irresponsible<i>. </i>One
might furthermore note that the estimates on which most of these
reports are based use the LNT model, which is unproven for low
radiation doses. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: Arial; color: black;"><i><br>
</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: Arial; color: black;"><i>--mkb</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-family: Arial; color: black;"><i><br>
</i></span></span></div>
<!--EndFragment--> </div>
<div><br>
<div>
<div>On Apr 7, 2011, at 2:45 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:</div>
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
<blockquote type="cite">
<div>Two noteworthy articles from the Union of Concerned
Scientists, one on<br>
careful calculation of excess cancer deaths from Chernobyl, the other on<br>
internal documents obtained from NRC via FOIA showing concerns about<br>
station blackout prior to Fukushima catastrophe:<br>
<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://allthingsnuclear.org/tagged/Japan_nuclear">http://allthingsnuclear.org/tagged/Japan_nuclear</a><br>
<br>
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