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<b>The allure of Afghanistan</b><br>
Asian powers jostle for position amid vast mineral reserves and
strategic oil pipelines, while West keeps bombing.<br>
Pepe Escobar Last Modified: 29 Jul 2011 16:21<br>
<br>
Afghanistan is not often perceived as a mineral Holy Grail.<br>
<br>
But, as it turns out, between $1-3 trillion in mineral wealth lies
unexplored across the Hindu Kush. There's enough uranium, lithium,
copper and iron ore to potentially turn Afghanistan into a
commodities powerhouse. <br>
<br>
The Pentagon knows all about it - how could it not? And the Russians
have known about it since at least the 1970s, when they mapped out
all the uranium riches of northern Afghanistan. <br>
<br>
Washington may have complex geopolitical energy reasons to remain in
Afghanistan - as explored in a previous Al Jazeera article that
generated enormous reader response. <br>
<br>
For its part, Islamabad is still obsessed with viewing Afghanistan
as a pliable satrap. But the going gets much juicier when one looks
at key Eurasian players such as Russia, India and China and their
own, non-Pentagonised reasons to come to this mineral Walhalla.<br>
<br>
<b>Business suits, not bombs</b><br>
<br>
Early next month a crucial bidding war begins in Kabul. It concerns
Hajigak, the world's biggest iron ore deposits, which are located in
central Afghanistan (at least 1.8bn tons, according to a Soviet
estimate made in the 1960s). To the sound of much predictable
Taliban grumbling, all 15 bidding companies are from India -
including giants Tata Steel and JSW, the country's third-largest
private steel company.<br>
<br>
A stable, business-friendly Afghanistan is absolutely essential for
India - a gateway to oil and gas from Iran, Central Asia and the
Caspian. India is building power stations and strategic roads, such
as the one linking Afghanistan with the Iranian port of Chahbahar.<br>
<br>
Few may know it, but it's not only Africa that is the object of a
fierce India-China business "war". Afghanistan is also a key
chessboard. There are five types of minerals on the Afghan horizon -
gold, copper, iron ore, and inevitably, oil and gas - and the
Indians and the Chinese are all over them.<br>
<br>
China Metallurgical Corporation already got a big prize in 2008 -
the Aynak copper mine in Logar, southeast of Kabul - for $3.4bn.
Why? Because Western companies were asleep at the wheel (or paranoid
with "security"); because the Chinese wasted no time; and, according
to the Afghan Ministry of Mines, "because of their package" (in
characteristic Chinese style, that includes building a whopping $6bn
railway connecting northern Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan
with western China).<br>
<br>
Kabul will get up to $350m a year in royalties. At least 5,000 jobs
will be created, with added benefits such as health clinics, roads
and schools. Security may indeed be a huge problem; there's a war
going on and safe transit routes are a mirage. But as war-weary
Afghans are poignantly stressing, that's already a start.<br>
<br>
The business track in Afghanistan now runs parallel to the political
track.<br>
<br>
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari visited Tehran twice within
only three weeks. He had two face-to-face meetings with Iranian
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The House of Saud, to put it
mildly, freaked out.<br>
<br>
After all, this Islamabad-Tehran lovefest totally smashes the myth
that the so-called "Shia crescent" is the greatest threat to Sunnis
in the Middle East and South Asia.<br>
<br>
Washington, predictably, was also hardly fond of it. The occupations
of Afghanistan and Iraq can be seen as an attempt by the US to
encircle Iran from both east and west (that's certainly Tehran's
view), and Washington believed Pakistan would play the same role on
Iran's southeast border.<br>
<br>
In a fascinating exchange that must have choked many a throat across
the Potomac, Khamenei told Zardari that Pakistan's "real enemy" was
the West, "and the US on top of it", while Zardari told Khamenei
that Iran was a "model of resistance and path to progress". What
next? Karachi taxis sporting Khomeini magnets?<br>
<br>
But the most fascinating part is that Tehran and Islamabad are now
discussing not only security matters but also business, such as an
upcoming free-trade agreement and a currency swap scheme that would
move both countries away from the US dollar.<br>
<br>
On the security front, Islamabad has proposed what would be an
Integrated Border Management Regime - that is, Pakistan, Iran and
Afghanistan fighting together against drug trafficking. That also
happens to be Russia's number-one priority in Central and South
Asia. Over twelve tonnes of pure heroin - that's over 3bn single
doses - reach Russia every year from Afghanistan. <br>
<br>
On the business front, it was all about the crucial Pipelineistan
gambit, the Iran-Pakistan (IP), also known as the "peace pipeline".
IP may supply as much as 50 per cent of Pakistan's energy needs.<br>
<br>
There are delays, of course. By the end of 2012, Iran will have
built its whole stretch of pipeline up to the Pakistani border. Yet
Pakistan will only start working on its own stretch by early 2012.<br>
<br>
But by 2015 IP should be online, forming a strategic umbilical cord
between Shia Iran and majority-Sunni Pakistan and rocking the
Eurasian geopolitical equation. IP will cross ultra-strategic
Balochistan, which is not only dripping with resources but which
also, as a transit corridor, provides the shortest access to the
warm waters of the Arabian Sea.<br>
<br>
<b>Iran and Pakistan as allies?</b><br>
<br>
So look for another unintended consequence of Washington's obsession
with the war on terror: Iran and Pakistan as increasingly close
allies. One can already foresee Tehran sharing on-the-ground
intelligence with Islamabad on Washington's myriad covert ops inside
Pakistani territory. <br>
<br>
Another unintended consequence - unthinkable only two or three years
ago - is that now Tehran, which is tremendously influential in
northwest Afghanistan, views the Taliban the Mullah Omar way: as an
indigenous "national resistance" movement against US/NATO occupation
and perpetual military bases. Moreover, Tehran is also in sync with
Islamabad in their support for the wily Hamid Karzai, who has
increasingly distanced himself from Washington.<br>
<br>
There are huge problems, of course. Although Zardari told Khamenei
that Islamabad supports Karzai and an "Afghan-led and Afghan-owned"
peace process, hardly any progress can be made without a substantial
reversal of Pakistan's official Afghan policy, which considers
Afghanistan as little more than "strategic depth" in a confrontation
with India, and which does everything to contain India's influence
in Afghanistan.<br>
<br>
Moreover, regional priorities differ. Moscow worries about its own
"war on drugs," wants NATO out of its backyard, and does not want US
military bases in Afghanistan. Beijing worries about the Taliban
influencing the Uighurs in Xinjiang. Tehran will keep cultivating
its privileged relationship with Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks - and
not Pashtuns. <br>
<br>
What is certain is that any unilateral Made-in-USA road map for
Afghanistan, of the "surge, bribe and stay" variety, is doomed to
failure without input from these key Eurasian players.<br>
<br>
Tragedy aside, the US/NATO war in Afghanistan is now seriously
flirting with surrealism - witness the Taliban's accusation that the
West hacked their website, their phones, their emails and spread
false rumours of Mullah Omar's death. Forget about "medieval
towelheads on hash"; these are iPhone-friendly Taliban who tweet and
post on Facebook - and command quite a following. Unsurprisingly,
gloomy war-machine NATO "declines to comment".<br>
<br>
It will be fascinating to watch what schemes the House of Saud will
concoct to smash the new business-friendly Tehran-Islamabad axis;
after all, Saudi Arabia essentially treats Pakistan as a sort of
political/economic annex.<br>
<br>
But not as fascinating as watching which Russian, Chinese and Indian
companies will make a killing off of Afghanistan's mineral wealth
while the Atlanticist West bomb themselves to irrelevancy.<br>
<b><br>
Pepe Escobar is the roving correspondent for the Asia Times. His
latest book is Obama Does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009). He may
be reached at <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:pepeasia@yahoo.com">pepeasia@yahoo.com</a>.</b><br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/2011725135937812465.html">http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/2011725135937812465.html</a><br>
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