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<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
title=rasmus@kyklos.com href="mailto:rasmus@kyklos.com">jack rasmus</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=drjackrasmus@gmail.com
href="mailto:drjackrasmus@gmail.com">drjackrasmus@gmail.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, March 17, 2014 12:17 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Who Benefits from the Ukraine Economic Crisis' by Dr. Jack
Rasmus</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=WordSection1>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt" class=MsoNormal><IMG
id=Picture_x0020_1 alt=http://www.counterpunch.org/images/header.jpg
src="cid:A28C8AD91C864C6C929D2C848E48FB72@johnson8547dac" width=780
height=183><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">March 17, 2014
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 36pt">Who Benefits
>From Ukraine’s Economic Crisis?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 16pt">by JACK
RASMUS<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">On March 16,
2014, 83% of the Crimea’s eligible voters have voted by 97% to secede from
Ukraine and join Russia. Simultaneously, negotiations between the European
Union and IMF with the interim government in the Ukraine, brought to power by a
Coup D’etat on February 22, continue toward a conclusion set tentatively for
March 21. Extreme political uncertainty thus promises to continue for
weeks and perhaps months given these events, while economic conditions
consequently continue to deteriorate in the Ukraine from an already extremely
precarious state.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Most accounts of
the situation in the Ukraine and Crimea have focused to date on political events
and conditions. Little has been said in the press about the economic
consequences of the Coup and subsequent events, or likely scenarios for the
future.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">What
interests—in the Ukraine and global (i.e. western Europe, USA, Russia)—stand to
benefit economically from recent and future events in the Ukraine? Who stands to
lose? There’s a well-worn saying, if you want to find out ‘who benefits’,
then “follow the money trail”. That trail will also lead to the inverse,
‘Who Pays’.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">1.
The IMF Deal of March 2014: Who Benefits, Who Pays</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">While the final
version of the latest IMF package for the Ukraine is still in development, past
relations and deals between the IMF and Ukraine indicate some likely
characteristics of ‘Deal #2’ due on March 21. (Deal #1 was the agreement reached
on February 21 between the IMF and the pre-Coup government of President
Yanukovich. While that former deal was agreed to on the 21st, it was upset
within 12 hours by the violent street actions of proto-fascist forces and
the still unidentified sniper killings of more than 100 protestors and police
forces in Kiev).<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Former
agreements and proposals between the IMF and Ukraine since the ‘Orange
Revolution’ of 2004 resulted in IMF loans to the Ukraine as
follows:<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">2005 IMF deal
terms: $16.6 billion in loans to Ukraine<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">2010 IMF deal
terms: $15.1 billion in loans to Ukraine<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">December 2013:
Ukraine requests another $20 billion from IMF<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The Orange
Revolution of 2004 resulted in severing much (but not all) of the Ukrainian
economy from Russia. That caused significant economic contraction for the
Ukrainian economy for several years after. Think of the similar effects of
the severance as if the west coast economy of the US—California, Oregon,
Washington—were stripped from the USA and joined Canada. While the rest of the
world economy, including Russia, enjoyed a moderate real economic recovery from
2004-07, Ukraine did not benefit much due to the economic severance from Russia
that followed 2004 and the Orange Revolution. Ukrainian GDP declined or
stagnated. In other words, the IMF deal of 2005 did little for the Ukrainian
economy.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Then came the
global economic collapse of 2008-09, generated largely by US, UK and western
banks’ over-speculation in financial securities. The Ukrainian economy and
GDP, like many economies, collapsed by more than -15% during those two years.
That led to the second IMF deal of 2010. Ukraine believed the second deal
would open its exports to western Europe and that would generate recovery.
However, the European economy (EU) itself slipped into a second, ‘double dip’
recession in 2011-13, and demand for Ukrainian exports did not follow as
anticipated. Ukrainian GDP again stagnated after a short, modest recovery, and
then slipped into a recession again in the second half of 2013. In short,
the 2010 IMF deal did little for Ukraine as well.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">In fact, the
2010 IMF probably slowed economic recovery, as it required a 50% increase in
household gas prices and corresponding cuts in subsidies for the same. That
significantly reduced aggregate consumption demand by Ukrainian households and
slowed the economy. So did corresponding IMF demands for reductions in
government spending, which were a precondition for the $15.1 billion 2010 IMF
package.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">One of the
reasons no doubt that the Yanukovich government last December 2013 decided to
forego another IMF deal was the reported requirement by the IMF that household
subsidies for gas be reduced by 50% more once again. Other onerous IMF
requirements included cuts to pensions, government employment, and the
privatization (read: let western corporations purchase) of government assets and
property. It is therefore likely that the most recent IMF deal currently
in negotiation, and due out March 21, 2014, will include once again major
reductions in gas subsidies, cuts in pensions, immediate government job cuts, as
well as other reductions in social spending programs in the
Ukraine.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">This possibility
does not seem to bother current interim prime minister, Arseny Yatsenyuk, who
has publicly commented by the cuts, saying that “we have no other choice but to
accept the IMF offer”. In fact, Yatsenyuk and his post-Coup government
even stated before negotiations with the IMF began this past week that they
would accept whatever offer the IMF and the EU made.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Early leaks of
the forthcoming March 21 IMF/EU bailout deal appear that the EU/IMF will provide
a $2 billion immediate grant and subsequent $11 billion in loans. The European
Investment Bank will provide a couple billion more. For a total package of
around $15 billion. But there is no reason to believe that the coming $15
billion will prove any more economically stimulative to the Ukraine than did the
2010 deal of $15.1 billion. The Ukraine, European, and world economy is even
weaker today than it was in 2010 when a brief, modest economic recovery globally
was in progress. Today the trend is economic stagnation in Europe, significant
slowing growth in China, and collapsing emerging markets. Western Europe in
general, and Germany in particular, will focus on subsidizing and expanding its
own exports first, and will be little interested in encouraging Ukrainian
exports to Europe at the expense of its own industries. Thus, as was the
case with the post-2010 IMF deal, western Europe in 2014-15 will not represent a
major source of export demand to stimulate Ukraine’s economy. More bailouts from
the EU/IMF and the USA will quickly be required.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The $15 billion
promised represents less than the $20 billion the Ukraine said it needed last
December—i.e. before its currency fell 20% and its foreign exchange reserves
fell to less than $10 billion. And less than the $35 billion the new
interim prime minister, Yatsenyuk, admitted is needed. This writer in an earlier
article has forecasted more than $50 billion will be required, given the
projected 5%-15% GDP decline expected for the Ukraine over the next two
years.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Even if one
assumes all the IMF’s $15 billion will actually go into the Ukrainian economy
directly the concurrent cuts to gas subsidies, pensions, government jobs and
government spending demanded by the IMF/EU deal will almost certainly offset
much, if not all, of the IMF/EU $15 billion.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Considering just
the question of gas subsidies to households:<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The latest
Ukrainian GDP (2012) figures show its GDP was equivalent to $176 billion in
nominal terms (and $335 billion if adjusted to global prices, or in ‘PPP’,
purchasing power parity, terms). Household gas subsidies reportedly amounted to
7.5% of GDP in 2012. That’s about $13 billion in nominal terms. So
if the IMF deal pending reportedly requires a cut of gas subsidies of 50%,
that’s about -$7.5 billion taken out of the Ukrainian economy. So the $15
billion IMF results in only half that in terms of real stimulus effects. The $15
billion becomes only a net $7.5 billion to the Ukrainian
economy.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Cutting gas
subsidies will not only result in removal of income for household spending who
lose the subsidies, it will also result in sharp increases in gas prices that
will reduce spending by nearly all households.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Then there’s the
likely IMF demand for pension cuts. Particularly hard hit by the IMF deal will
be elderly women households, who receive the majority of the pensions and which
are spent to support children and grandchildren.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The cuts to gas
subsidies and pensions, and rising gas prices, will reduce consumption
immediately (and therefore GDP immediately) easily by more than $10
billion.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">IMF-demanded
cuts in other government spending will further offset the nominal IMF/EU $15
billion stimulus. Ukrainian government spending today represents 46% of GDP. The
IMF will almost certainly therefore also demand a significant reduction in that
46%. That will mean in the short term even further GDP decline. That
leaves a net real economic effect on the Ukrainian economy of well less than $5
billion.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">But there may
not even be the $5 billion to begin with.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The lion’s share
of the $15 billion IMF loan will go to western banks (especially in Austria and
Italy who are seriously exposed) to pay principle and interest on previous loans
to the IMF and western banks (about $2 billion this year), will be used to
finance future exports from the Ukraine (now running a $20 billion a year trade
deficit), or will be used by the Ukrainian central bank to prop up the Ukrainian
currency (now falling 20%). How much of the $15 billion in the IMF/EU package
will be initially diverted to cover bank loan interest, finance trade deficits,
and for Ukraine’s central bank efforts to slow the collapse of its currency
remains to be seen. It past IMF deals are an indicator, much of that $15 billion
will be used as a first priority for the preceding purposes. What’s left,
if any, will go directly to the Ukraine economy. What’s left will no doubt
amount to far less going into the real economy, than that which will ‘taken out’
of the Ukraine economy as a result of cutting gas subsidies, government
spending, and pensions.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Add in rising
inflation from ending of gas subsidies and inevitable rising unemployment from
cuts in government spending, it is not difficult to estimate that the latest IMF
deal will have no more positive impact on the Ukrainian economy than did the
prior 2010 and 2005 IMF deals. Indeed, it will most likely have an even greater
negative impact on the economy in general, and the average Ukrainian in
particular.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">To briefly
summarize in terms of just the net impacts of the EU/IMF deal, ‘Who
Benefits’ include: western European banks who will continue to receive principal
and interest payments from the IMF that would had defaulted; global
currency speculators who will be able to sell Ukrainian currency to the
Ukrainian central bank at a subsidized price, Ukrainian companies that will be
given export credits to continue selling to western Europe and the western
Europe companies that import the Ukrainian exports at a more attractive
price.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Those ‘Who Pay’
and who lose include :majority of Ukrainian households that will have their real
income reduced as they pay higher prices for gas, Ukrainian elderly who will
have their pensions cut, Ukrainian government workers who will lose their jobs,
and all Ukrainian households who will lose other government
services.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">But all the
foregoing only refers to the negative net economic impacts from the pending
March 2014 IMF deal. What about the general economy, apart from the IMF
deal, which is predicted to contract by 5%-15% over the next two years even
assuming no worse development in political instability?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Who gains longer
term from the Ukraine being more completely integrated into the western economy?
Who loses longer term?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">2.
Russian Loses from the Crisis</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The recent Coup
D’etat of February 22 should be viewed as the continuation of the west’s plan to
sever the Ukraine economy from Russia, a plan that began in 2004 with the Orange
Revolution but was not fully realized in 2004 by the west. The consequence of
2004 represents economically a partial severing of the Russian and Ukrainian
economies; the February 22 Coup represents the beginning of the completion of
that separation, a plan to totally strip of the Ukrainian economy from the
Russian. 2004 and 2014 are thus not mutually exclusive events; they are linked
and part of a continuum.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">As a result of
the 2004 ‘half revolution’, Russia and the European Union settled into a rough
equal sharing of Trade with the Ukraine, about a third of Ukrainian trade each.
Post-coup that will no doubt shift dramatically, and Russia’s trade balance will
decline with the Ukraine as the west’s rises significantly, to well more than
half of the Ukraine’s total trade in the future.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">In the immediate
term, what Russia also stands to lose from the crisis economically is the $1-$2
billion of its previously offered ‘deal’ of February that has been already
disbursed to the Ukraine and will not likely be repaid. It also stands to
lose $2 billion in unpaid gas bills by the Ukraine.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Longer term,
there are the USA-EU economic sanctions that will be forthcoming. How extensive
they will prove to be and how focused remains to be determined. However,
this writer suspects western sanctions may prove more window dressing than
serious, at least initially. The USA wants tough sanctions, since it has little
to lose; the Europeans, on the other hand, are not as convinced and prefer token
sanctions at first.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The UK in
particular wants continued Russian wealthy investors money to flow to the UK to
prop up its shaky property boomlet, that artificially underlies its current
fragile and weak economic recovery. France has recently gone to the USA,
with hat in hand, requesting the USA help its economy. Its president,
Hollande, will do whatever Washington wants. Europe likes Russia’s crony
capitalists and oligarchs and will therefore be selective in its sanctions,
focusing on Russian political figures and staunch Russian-Putin supporters
rather than freezing of assets for Oligarchs with investments in the west across
the board. Germany is significantly dependent on Russian natural
gas, but also has a large trade relationship with Russia, more than $75 billion
a year. It will ‘talk tough’ to please the USA, but will not act so until it has
assurances from the USA with regard to the latter supplying it with low cost USA
natural gas—and that will take months if not years.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Concern about
counter-sanctions from Russia targeting the extensive western corporate
investments in Russia will also serve to reduce the severity of initial western
‘sanctions’. Capitalists on both sides of the dispute, in Russia and in the
west, will pressure their governments to not undertake serious sanctions
precipitously. They will want to ‘wait it out’ and hope the crisis blows over in
time.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Russian stock
market and currency losses will prove relatively short term for Russia. It is
difficult to distinguish the declines in stock prices and currency from the
political crisis, on the one hand, and the general decline in emerging markets
that began last year and is accelerating today.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Russian exports
to the west in general, and to the Ukraine in particular, could take a more
serious hit in the short run, and potentially in the longer run even more so.
But Russia is likely able to offset losses longer term by turning ‘east’ and
selling more to China and Asia.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">In short, Russia
will suffer some economic losses from the Ukrainian crisis but not nearly as
severe as threats and claims made by the USA and European media and
governments.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">3.
How the USA Benefits From the Crisis</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">In this
Ukrainian crisis the USA has the least economically to lose in the short run,
and the most economically to gain in the longer run.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">To begin with,
the USA has committed a paltry $1 billion to the Ukrainian government so
far. And it is not likely to commit significantly more, given the
strategically critical USA mid-term Congressional elections coming up in
November. The Neocons and Republicans have maneuvered the Obama
administration into a box over the Ukraine crisis. If Obama comes down too
strongly in terms of a military response, he loses the support of his liberal
wing for the elections which already has turned against him in large part for
his pro-corporate and pro-war policies to date. If he doesn’t come down
hard with big financial commitments to the Ukraine, and is unwilling to
implement significant economic sanctions, then the Republicans and political
sociopaths like Senator John McCain in Congress will attack him
severely. Based on his past history, Obama will likely try to
‘waffle’ between the two poles of pressure, satisfying neither before the
November elections.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">What this means
is that here is a strong political and economic element in the USA that would
like a military confrontation with Russia, or at minimum a major economic break
and attempt to totally isolate Russia economically. There has been growing
concern within the ranks of this element that western Europe—and especially
Germany—have forged too deep and too close economic ties with Russia. They
want to break those ties and replace them with greater European dependency on
the USA economically.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The long term
objective is to have Germany and Europe dependent on US natural gas, at the
expense of Russian gas. The USA now has a surplus of natural gas as a
result of ‘fracking’ and new exploration. That surplus is reducing the
price of natural gas in the US, and therefore profits. It wants to export the
gas, which will raise prices and profits in the US while increasing profits from
sales abroad. However, current legislation prevents the export of that
gas. A crisis in Europe and the latter’s need for natural gas provides the
perfect excuse for lifting US gas export controls. Oil and energy companies,
facing lower demand for oil, want to boosts profits by increased production of
natural gas both domestically and to Europe. But the latter requires a
breaking of Europe’s relationship on Russian natural gas.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">US agribusiness
also stands to gain from a Ukrainian crisis. A separating of Europe from
Russia economically means an opportunity for increased US wheat exports to
Europe. Not least, the US defense and military hardware industry stands to
gain as well. With projected $50 billion potential reduction in US arms
production next year, a crisis in Europe will certainly provide a strong
argument to restore those projected cuts.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">4.
The European Economy: Mixed Gains and Losses</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The Ukrainian
crisis poses a number of potential losses for the European economies.
First, should the crisis deepen, it will mean a hike in natural gas and oil
prices, food prices, and prices for certain raw materials. It could also
mean a reduction in natural gas availability—not just from a Russian reduction,
which is less likely, but from destruction of gas pipelines by the proto-fascist
Ukrainian nationalists who have already threatened to blow up pipelines from
Russia through the Ukraine to western Europe.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Also negative is
the consequences for the Euro currency and European stock markets. The
Euro has already risen significantly, and is under pressure from global forces
to rise further as well. That currency appreciation will make Euro
products less competitive and more costly, in addition to the cost of energy.
Euro exports, especially Germany’s, to the rest of the world will slow and the
Euro economic recovery, barely underway, could stall and even enter another
recession, its third since 2008.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Shorter term,
Euro stock markets have already begun to decline and will accelerate should the
Ukraine crisis worsen politically. Trade with Russia dislocations in the short
term will also reduce European economic growth, notwithstanding assurances from
the USA it will offset the differences.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">In the short
term, European banks will benefit from the IMF deal, which is crucial at a time
that certain major banking institutions, like the big Italian Unicredit bank,
have recently recorded huge losses. European multinational companies will
do well, getting to buy up key Ukrainian companies and industries ‘on the
cheap’. But in the shorter run, the general crisis in the Ukraine and the
latter’s continued steep economic decline in coming months will result in
European companies ‘rushing to safe havens’—currencies like the dollar, the Yen,
and the Euro—as they move money ‘to the sidelines’ until the crisis
abates.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">5.
What USA-EU Multinational Corporations Want in the Ukraine</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">It is generally
thought that the Ukrainian economy is largely uncompetitive and overly
represented by outmoded basic industries like coal mining, steel, metals and
other ‘pre-information’ society industries. But that is a gross
misrepresentation. The Ukraine offers an especially attractive economic
‘plum’ ripe for picking by western multinational companies. Here’s just some
evidence of this latter point:<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The Ukrainian
economy is heavily invested in nuclear power generation and hydroelectric
generation. This offers significant new investment opportunities for western
nuclear power construction companies, who are facing growing public opposition
to further nuclear plant construction in the west.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The Ukraine is
the 6<SUP>th</SUP> largest exporter of aircraft military goods, especially
transport equipment and has an advanced rocket systems industry. It ranks
4<SUP>th</SUP> in the world in terms of IT technology professionals, behind only
the USA, India and Russia, and has an exceptionally well educated technical
workforce and tech-oriented education system that is growing 20% a year. Its
tech market is more than $4 billion a year. 90% of its populace is internet
connected and has 125 mobile phones per 100 population. Its shipbuilding
industry is one of the most advanced, including natural gas tankers. It
has a thriving automobile, truck, and public bus production industry. And it has
30% of the world’s richest soil, producing grains, sugar and vegetable oils at
costs well below Europe’s. It also has its own proven, significant, but yet
totally undeveloped shale gas reserves.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">What the west
wants is for its corporations to get its hands on these industries and their
products and to integrate them into their multinational corporations’ global
expansion and production plans. They will be aided by the IMF as part of its
‘foreign direct investment’ requirements of any EU/IMF bailout deal. As these
multinationals ‘invest’ in the Ukraine, western banks will be paid significant
fees (and allow Ukrainian banks to share as junior partners in the process).
Downsizing and ‘restructuring’ of these Ukrainian industries will follow to
integrate them to the global plans of the western multinationals. Ukrainians
will lose jobs in these promising sectors, as their wages stagnant, and benefits
are cut—as is the case going on globally for workers in all these industries
today including the EU and USA.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">6.
Ukraine Crony Capitalists-USA Capitalists Connections</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Little has been
written to date about the close connections between the Ukraine’s ‘crony
capitalists’ pro-western wing’s connections to western capitalist interests, and
USA capitalists in particular.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">There are two
wings of Ukrainian ‘cronys’—the pro-western and the pro-Russian. Both are
composed of opportunist bureaucrats of the Soviet era turned capitalist when the
Soviet Union imploded more than 20 years ago. Both wings have been
fighting it out openly since the Orange Revolution of 2004, now one in
ascendancy, now the other. The pro-western wing is loosely associated with
the ‘Fatherland’ Party, once led by Timoshenko and her predecessors; the other
by Yanukovich and his predecessors, associated with the ‘Regions’ Party. All the
top politicians in both are multi-millionaires and billionaires, having
alternating between themselves in raping the Ukraine economically for more than
two decades now. The Ukraine in the early 1990s had an economy and
standard of living well above the other new ex-Soviet Republics. Today its GDP
and average income is less than Belarus and well below
Russia’s.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The Yanukovich
cronies have been deposed in the recent coup of February 22, or are at least in
retreat economically and trying to consolidate their economic
forces. Ousted from political control are Yanukovich and ‘Regions’
party billionaire cronies like Rinat Akhmetov, richest man in the Ukraine worth
$15 billion, with big holdings in energy and metals; Vadim Novinsky, the third
richest; Dymtro Firtash, with billions in chemicals, banking and real estate,
who was recently arrested in western Europe; and Sehiy Tihipko, former head of
the Ukraine central bank.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The Fatherland
party billionaires are now in control, with their very wealthy compatriot, newly
minted prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, running the new government. But
behind the scenes lurk the real new crony powerbrokers.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">At the top of
this list is Victor Pinchuk, the second richest man in the Ukraine with an
empire in Media and other business interests. His foundation has been
central in funding NGOs (non-government organizations) in the Ukraine, which
have been the conduits for western money to help destabilize the Ukraine for
years. Pinchuk’s foundation works closely with Yatsenyuk’s foundation. Pinchuk
is also close to Wall St. and the Council on Foreign Relations in the USA, the
premier foreign policy strategy organization of capitalists in the US.
Pinchuk is also on the board of the Petersen Institute in the USA, another key
organization influencing US economic and foreign policy. Pinchuk interfaces
frequently with the Clinton and Blair Foundations, and is a major participant in
the annual gathering of big capitalists at the World Economic Forum in Davos,
Switzerland. He is friends with Bill Gates and Warren
Buffet.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Below Pinchuk
are other key crony-billonaires like Igor Turchynov, interim President and
Speaker of the Ukrainian parliament; Stepan Kuban, who heads the new
Ukrainian central bank; Sergey Tartuta, billionaire coal and steel boss with
extensive holdings in eastern Ukraine, who was just recently appointed the new
governor of the Donetsk region in the east after the Yatsenyuk team fired its
previous pro-Yanukovich governor. Tartuta has close economic ties with
Poland and Hungarian capitalists. Still another is Ihor Kolomysky, similarly
appointed in recent weeks as new governor of the Dnepopetrovsk region in the
eastern Ukraine.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">These
billionaires who are either themselves in the Ukrainian parliament, or who were
and continue to control blocks of 30-50 votes each, were undoubtedly behind the
‘inside strategy’ of the February 22 Coup. The ‘outside strategy’ was
driven by the proto-fascists on the street and in Maidan square. As the
latter stepped up the attack outside the Parliament, on the inside the vote to
depose Yanukovich took place, as some of his own cronies deserted him to join
the ‘Fatherland’ cronies—no doubt convinced in part by threats that arose
simultaneously from the west that their assets in Swiss and Luxembourg banks
would be frozen. As for the Maidan proto-fascists—the elements of the
Svoboda party, the ‘Right Sector’, the UPA, and others—they have been nicely
rewarded for their assistance with no fewer than six key positions in the new
post-coup government of Yatsenyuk. These include formal positions of
police and military power, such as Oleksandr Sych, new vice-premier (second to
Yatsenyuk); Andrey Parubiy, National Security Secretary and head of the National
Security Council; Dmytro Yarosh, Deputy Secretary for National Security; and
Oleh Makhnitsky, Chief Prosecutor; Dimitri Balaatov, Minister of Youth. It
is clear the proto-fascists have chosen positions in the government that will
allow them to build, arm and organize their street gangs better in the future,
now under official government cover.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">7.
The Ukrainian Economy—The Big Loser</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">As noted
earlier, the Ukrainian people will be the big economic losers from the crisis.
And after already having been for more than two decades. The pending third
round of IMF austerity will mean that gas subsidies will be reduced, pensions
cut, jobs lost, services eliminated, and inflation will rise. The standard of
living will fall still further, as predicted depression conditions of 5%-15%
drop in GDP in 2014-15 materialize.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">As was estimated
by Ukraine’s prime minister last December 2013, Ukraine will need a minimum of
$17 billion to prevent default on payments to banks for government debt already
incurred. Ukraine’s public debt as a percent of GDP was 39% in 2012.
Measured in PPP terms, that’s more than $13 billion still owed with interest.
Its foreign exchange reserves are almost exhausted and it needs $20 billion a
year just to finance its annual current trade deficit of that amount. But if its
currency continues to decline, if its exports decline, and if the cost of
imports rise—all of which are highly likely—then the IMF’s pending $15 billion
will prove grossly insufficient. Ukraine will need $50 billion, and the
question remains whether the EU-IMF and/or the USA will be willing to provide
such a large sum. The answer to that is highly unlikely. That means the
Ukrainian government will agree to whatever terms the IMF-EU offer in exchange
for the $15 billion, and then more for follow-on additional loans
necessary. It means the government will cut services and privatize public
assets, selling them to billionaires and western interests, at ‘firesale prices’
out of desperation. And it means that foreign capitalists will scoop up
Ukrainian companies and industries at historic low prices as those companies and
industries desperately try to prevent their collapse and bankruptcy in the
coming months of economic severe decline in the Ukraine.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">Given the strong
trends in the global economy in general toward slowdown, and the decline of
currencies in emerging markets, it is likely as well that Ukraine’s currency
will continue to decline, further exacerbating all the above problems. The
recent 20% drop in its value in relation to the dollar will continue, as the
Ukraine is swept up in the general emerging markets crisis in addition to its
own set of problems.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">With the
secession of the Crimea the Ukrainian crisis, economically and politically now
shifts to a new level. As the economic crisis deepens in the country,
demands for secession will grow elsewhere in the eastern Ukraine as well. How
the Ukraine government and the USA/EU chooses to address that likelihood will be
critical. Further political unrest and uncertainty will mean more economic
crisis, as business investment and production stalls and employment and
inflation rises.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 18pt">The response to
the growing economic problems by the post-Coup government in Kiev will also
prove critical. With its security forces now being led by proto-fascist
elements that want above all a military conflict between the EU/USA and Russia,
the great danger is that those proto-fascist forces may provoke a military
conflict in an attempt to draw in NATO forces. Should that occur,
then Ukraine’s economic crisis will be the least of its
problems.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P
style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"
class=MsoNormal><B><I><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 14pt">Dr. Jack
Rasmus</SPAN></I></B><I><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 14pt"> is author
of the 2012 book, ‘Obama’s Economy: Recovery for the Few’, and the 2010 book,
‘Epic Recession: Prelude to Global Depression’, both published by Pluto Press
and Palgrave-Macmillan. He is host of the weekly radio show, ‘Alternative
Visions’, on the Progressive Radio Network. His website is: </SPAN></I><A
href="http://www.kyklosproductions.com"><I><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 14pt">www.kyklosproductions.com</SPAN></I></A><I><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 14pt"> and his twitter
handle, @drjackrasmus.</SPAN></I><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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