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<font size="+3">You just don't get it do you Bob ?<br>
<br>
The corporate controlled democratic politicians have been selling
out the American people for two decades now and they are not
getting any better they are only getting worse !<br>
So don't attempt to kill the messenger, facts are facts that you
seem to be in total denial of.<br>
<br>
And by the way, you are still incorrectly using the term " ultra
Left " despite the fact that myself and others have corrected you
in the past.<br>
<br>
David Johnson<br>
<br>
</font>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 10/28/2014 9:54 PM, Robert Naiman
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote
cite="mid:CALMNhNSYzoNEMh7BJEM1ruFO8Ha_opAe9ht7MMtBnGo0wLS_BQ@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">Ugh. I hate it when the ultra-left gloats about the
prospect of a Republican victory.
<div><br>
</div>
<div>It's not at all "almost certain" that Republicans will
capture the Senate. Nate Silver's poll aggregation site puts
the current chance of a Republican takeover at 62.3%, with
Democrats having a 37.7% chance of keeping the Senate. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/">http://fivethirtyeight.com/</a><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>If that's an "almost certain" Republican victory, then it
is "almost certain" that the best hitter in Major League
Baseball will not get a hit the next time he goes to bat. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>I suppose this ultra-left writer probably wouldn't be
interested in such data; the ultra-left is usually too
enamored of its own rhetoric to pay external evidence any
mind.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
</div>
<div class="gmail_extra"><br clear="all">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">Robert Naiman<br>
Policy Director<br>
Just Foreign Policy<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.justforeignpolicy.org" target="_blank">www.justforeignpolicy.org</a><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:naiman@justforeignpolicy.org" target="_blank">naiman@justforeignpolicy.org</a><br>
<div><span style="text-align:left">(202) 448-2898 x1</span><br>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Tue, Oct 28, 2014 at 6:12 PM, David
Johnson <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:davidjohnson1451@comcast.net">davidjohnson1451@comcast.net</a>
[CentralILJwJ] <span dir="ltr"><<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:CentralILJwJ-noreply@yahoogroups.com"
target="_blank">CentralILJwJ-noreply@yahoogroups.com</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0
.8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div style="background-color:#fff">
<span> </span>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p> <big><big><big><big><span><big><big><big><big><span>This
time voter response could be
even worse, given the overlay
of other, additional
legitimate grievances by large
voter constituencies that
previously voted for
Democrats. </span></big></big></big></big></span></big></big></big></big>
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>A
close look at the 2012 elections shows
that Obama won re-election largely
because of Hispanic, student youth, and
union labor votes delivered him the key
states that made the difference in his
U.S. electoral college vote results. In
addition to the continuing economic
legacies of 2010, these key
constituencies now have additional
grievances with the Democrats.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>Millions
of Latino immigrants and Hispanics who
had high hopes that Democrats and Obama
would address their needs and grievances
no longer believe Democrats and Obama
can deliver a solution. Millions of
students with a combined more than $1
trillion in loan debt, who are now
paying tens of billions a year in excess
above-market interest to the U.S.
government no longer believe meaningful
debt relief is possible, even though it
could with a mere stroke of Obama’s pen.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>And
union workers who delivered key Midwest
states to Democrats and Obama in 2012,
and have received virtually nothing from
Obama since 2008 in return (except
perhaps the very real prospect of losing
their negotiated health benefits in the
next few years due to the Obamacare
health act) have seen the Obama
administration reject their unions’
every appeal for assistance and
reconsideration since 2012. <br>
</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<big><big><big><big><span>It’s not that these key
constituencies will vote Republican. It’s
that they will likely not vote Democrat.
They will vote with ‘the seat of their
pants’, as they say, and stay home. And
that means the loss of the Senate for
Democrats next week.</span></big></big></big></big>
<div><br>
<br>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><img
src="cid:part6.07060208.03040608@comcast.net"
alt="teleSUR" height="103" width="251"><b><span>teleSUR
English</span></b><b><span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span>USA Midterm
Elections: Past and Present</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span>By Jack Rasmus</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in"><span>Published
27 October 2014</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in"><span><img
src="cid:part7.08060902.06070605@comcast.net" alt="U.S. President Barack
Obama takes part in early voting at a
polling station in Chicago, Illinois
October 20, 2014 (Photo: Reuters)"
height="425" width="750"></span><span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><b><span><small><small><small>U.S.
President Barack Obama takes
part in early voting at a
polling station in Chicago,
Illinois October 20, 2014
(Photo: Reuters)</small></small></small></span></b></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>With
the USA midterm Congressional
elections barely a week away on
November 4, it appears now almost
certain that Republicans will win
the minimum six key Senate races
they need in order take control of
the U.S. Senate from the Democrats
and the Obama administration. </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>In
a previous essay written in
September, when the Democrats and
the U.S. mainstream press were still
maintaining the Democrats would hold
on to the U.S. Senate, this writer
predicted that “Obama and the
Democrats face the very real
possibility of losing control of the
U.S. Senate in November” (see
‘Barack Obama as Jimmy Clinton’,
teleSUR English, September 28,
2014). <br>
Now it is almost certain they will. </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><b><span>Why
Democrats May Lose the US Senate</span></b><span></span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>Republicans
need to take back only 6 seats from
the Democrats in the Senate to gain
control of that institution. A week
before the elections, they now hold
comfortable leads in at least six
and are favored to win in two more.
The final outcome could be as high
as ten Senate seat losses for the
Democrats, as Democrats hold only
slight leads in traditionally
Republican states like North
Carolina and Louisiana.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>As
the election comes down to the wire,
Democrats are becoming increasingly
desperate, pinning their hopes on
long shot wins in historically
Republican bastion states like
Kansas and Georgia. Even lead
editorials in the New York Times now
raise the specter, in bold
headlines, of a ‘The Democratic
Panic’ now in progress. Elsewhere
high ranking party insiders, like
Jim Manley, former spokesperson for
the Senate Democratic Party leader,
Harry Reid, are quoted publicly
saying that “There is a decent shot
that we are going to lose the
Senate”.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>With
the U.S. House of Representatives
already firmly in control of the
Republicans, and dominated by their
ultra-conservative Teaparty faction,
should Republicans in 2014 now also
take the Senate the U.S. Congress
will quickly become even more
aggressively pro-corporate,
pro-military adventurist, and even
more anti-US worker than it has been
to date. </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>It
is estimated that spending on the
2014 midterm elections will exceed
$4 billion, about $2 billion raised
each by Republican and Democrat
candidates.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>For
that $4 billion, the American public
can expect a new policy
aggressiveness to emerge immediately
after the election, driven by a
newly confident, even more
conservative, pro-corporate right
wing with firm control of both
houses of the U.S. Congress.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>With
the U.S. House of Representatives
already firmly in control of the
Republicans, and dominated by their
ultra-conservative Teaparty faction,
should Republicans in 2014 now also
take the Senate the U.S. Congress
will quickly become even more
aggressively pro-corporate,
pro-military adventurist, and even
more anti-US worker than it has been
to date. </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>High
on the agenda of new policies that
will quickly emerge from the midterm
elections, should the Republicans
take the Senate, will be the
following policy initiatives: new
tax cuts for U.S. multinational
businesses, harsher treatment of
immigrant workers in the USA, more
anti-environmental actions favoring
shale fracking, offshore drilling,
pipelines, and CO2 industrial
emissions rollbacks, renewed attacks
on the Medicaid health system for
the poor and Medicare health
services for the retired, proposals
for more funding for wars in the
middle east, demands for more
aggressive military support for the
USA engineered coup d’etat
government in the Ukraine, and
perhaps even a renewed attack on
social security retirement benefits
in the USA.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>Strategists
for both Republicans and Democrats
agree that the 2014 midterm election
is about jobs and the economy. While
the stock and bond markets in the
USA continue their five year surge
to new record heights, providing
even more capital gains income to
the wealthy and their corporations,
the bottom 90% of USA households
continue to languish after more than
five years of so-called economic
recovery.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>While
the rich get ever richer and
corporations ever more profitable,
the Obama administration and the
mainstream press daily trumpet that
more than six million new jobs have
been created since 2009. However,
that same mainstream press remains
conspicuously silent about the real
facts about jobs and incomes in the
USA. For example, in a Bloomberg
News interview this past week, it
was reported that 76% of the U.S.
jobs created since 2009 have been
what is called ‘contingent’
jobs—i.e. 60% part time and another
16% temporary jobs. Jobs that are
paid 50%-65% less than full time
jobs. Jobs with no benefits,
substandard working conditions, and
no job security.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>Furthermore,
while 6 million jobs have been
created, according to the mainstream
press, little or no mention by that
same press is made about the 8
million USA workers who have dropped
out and left the labor force
altogether, disillusioned they could
ever find work sufficient to support
themselves. If the latter 8 million
were considered in the unemployment
rate in the USA—which they are not
given the way the USA underestimates
its jobless—the true unemployment
rate in the USA would be in excess
of 12% today instead of the current
official rate of about half that.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>That’s
8 million potentially unhappy
voters. Add to their ranks the 4.5
million who were able only to get
part time and temp jobs; add the
millions whose homes have been
foreclosed since 2009; add the
millions of union workers who now
increasingly realize they will get
no benefit from Obama’s health care
act and instead will have their own
costs of health insurance doubled;
add the millions of students now in
debt to the tune of more than $1
trillion in the USA; add those
millions fed up with the continued
militarist policies of the
administration; and, not least, add
to all the above the key
constituency that more than any
other enabled Obama to win a second
term in 2012—i.e. the tens of
millions of Hispanic workers in the
USA that Obama has recently turned
his back on once again.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><b><span>The
Strategic Latino-Hispanic Vote</span></b><span></span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>The
Obama administration since 2009 has
deported more undocumented Latin
American immigrant workers, and
broken up more of their families as
a result, than all preceding
presidents combined. More than 2
million have been deported on
Obama’s watch. 438,000 in just 2013,
which was 50,000 more than 2012,
which in turn was 30,000 more than
in 2011. That’s millions of
potential family members and friends
who will not forget the hurt come
November 4.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>And
after promising to end deportations
and take executive action himself on
immigration earlier this year, Obama
has since retreated this past June
and put all promises about
immigration reform on hold. </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>Not
surprising, a September 2014
NBC/Telemundo poll showed only 13%
of Latino voters in the USA felt
“very positive” about the Democratic
Party.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>The
Hispanic vote was key in 2012 to
winning those states that put Obama
back into the White House. Today it
is those same states—Colorado, North
Carolina, Georgia, Florida,
etc.—that are the key swing states
up for grabs in the race for the
Senate.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>It
is those same states in which
Democrats running for the Senate are
trailing well behind in voter polls.
And if most Latino and Hispanic
voters stay home and don’t turn out
to vote, which appears the likely
case next week, then Democrat Senate
candidates are doomed in those same
key states and Democrats will lose
the U.S. Senate ‘hands down’, as
they say.<br>
Indicative of this likelihood was
the headline in a Wall St. Journal
this past week that declared
‘Hispanic Voter Frustration
Threatens Democrats Most’. The
story included a report by
organizers of the National Council
of La Raza, who talked to
prospective Latino voters house to
house in Florida. The story noted
that “many seemed to not be paying
attention to this election. ‘We’ve
been let down so many times, I don’t
know who to support’, said Maria
Molina, ‘I don’t know if I’m going
to vote’.” </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><b><span>A
Tale of Two Midterm Debacles: 2010
and 2014</span></b><span></span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>The
two midterm elections—2010 and 2014—
are linked. They are part of the
same dynamic and process, begun in
2010 and continuing to this day.
And both the loss of the U.S. House
in 2010, and likely the U.S. Senate
in 2014, have their roots in the
policies adopted by the Obama
administration in the summer of
2010.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>Obama’s
token fiscal stimulus in 2009, which
was barely 5% of USA GDP at a time
the U.S. economy was declining 15%
in 2008-09, was insufficient to
ensure a sustained economic
recovery. (Compare his to China’s
15% of GDP fiscal stimulus package
at the time).</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>By
the summer of 2010 more fiscal
stimulus for the U.S. economy was
clearly called for, as the 2009
stimulus began to dissipate and the
U.S. economy to stall out.
Unemployment began to rise once
again by the tens of thousands every
month throughout the summer of 2010.
25 million were still unemployed.
Homeowners’ foreclosures were
accelerating at an average rate of
300,000 a month. Economic output was
slowing everywhere, with business,
consumer, and local government
spending in retreat.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>But
despite this 2010 summer scenario,
the Obama administration ignored the
rising housing foreclosures, turning
it over to the States’ attorneys
general deal with the problem.
Concerning jobs, he appointed the
CEO of the General Electric Corp,
Jeff Immelt, to head up his ‘jobs
program’. Immelt’s jobs program
turned out to be more free trade,
more tax benefits for multinational
corporations, and patent reform. Job
losses and home foreclosures not
surprisingly continued to rise. </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>Instead
of directly addressing the
continuing dual jobs and housing
crises at the time, Obama turned to
providing even more free money to
bankers and investors. Following the
‘quantitative easing’ (QE) U.S.
central bank program of 2009 that
bought $1.7 trillion in bad assets
from bankers and wealthy investors,
Obama had the U.S. central bank
provide an additional $600 billion
in late 2010. He then proposed
another $800 billion more in tax
cuts for business as well. </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>In
just two years, 2009-2010, bankers
and big capital would receive at
minimum a total of nearly $4
trillion in direct subsidies, tax
cuts, and free ‘no interest’ money.
(Since 2010 they have received at
least $500 billion dollars more in
further business tax cuts, $2.2
trillion more in QE free money, and
hundreds of billions more in direct
subsidies).</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>This
focus on recovery for bankers and
big business, while doing virtually
nothing to address working and
middle classes crises in jobs,
housing, and declining wages and
income, was not lost on American
voters in the fall of 2010. With
business and investors being bailed
out without limit, working and
middle class America were receiving
little, if anything, in terms of
jobs, housing rescue, or any other
substantive assistance. The November
2010 elections consequently resulted
in a debacle for Democrats, who lost
control of the U.S. House of
Representatives by historic margins.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>Democrats
also lost the majority of State
governorships up for election in
2010. 2010 was a census year. That
meant the states, now mostly under
Republican rule after the 2010
elections, could and did proceed to
‘gerrymander’ safe jurisdictions for
Republicans in future U.S. House
elections. Gerrymandering would
ensure Republicans would hereafter
have to worry little about ever
losing the U.S. House again.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>The
jobs crisis in the USA has therefore
still not been solved. There is only
a massive ‘jobs churn’—from full
time to contingent jobs, from high
pay to low pay, and from new
entrants to the labor force to
millions leaving the labor force. </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>The
same Obama policies in 2010 that led
to the Democrats loss of the U.S.
House of Representatives in that
year’s midterm Congressional
elections still continue to haunt
Democrat Senate candidates this
year, 2014: Jobs, housing, stagnant
and declining working class wages
and incomes, rising working class
debt, and slowing consumption by the
vast majority of U.S. households.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>While
Obama and the Democrats repeatedly
refer to 6 million jobs having been
created since 2010, they are silent
on the fact that 4 million of those
are part time, temporary, and thus
low paid. Nor do they mention that 8
million have left the labor force
altogether. The jobs crisis in the
USA has therefore still not be
solved. There is only a massive
‘jobs churn’—from full time to
contingent jobs, from high pay to
low pay, and from new entrants to
the labor force to millions leaving
the labor force. </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>Nor
has the Housing crisis been
solved—at least for working and
middle class Americans. A brief
period of housing recovery in
2011-12 has resulted in a new
slowdown. In the interim, housing
sales were mostly to the wealthiest
households or to institutional
investors and foreign buyers—not the
normal middle class buyer.
Meanwhile, median working class
families’ wages and incomes have
continued to decline 1%-2% every
year for the past four years, and
household debt levels for median
families have continued to rise.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>This
basically stagnant state of economic
affairs affecting the vast majority
of U.S. workers and households has
not been lost on the average voter
today, in 2014, any more than it was
lost on the same voter in 2010. </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>This
time, in 2014, the large number of
Senate seats that were won by
Democrats in 2008 are up for
re-election. Those Democrats won
Senate seats in 2008 from what had
been historically traditional
Republican seats in pro-Republican
states. Now, in 2014, most of those
seats will likely revert back to
Republicans again.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><b><span>The
Legacies of 2010 + New Grievances</span></b><span></span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>The
Obama and Democrat policies and
programs of 2010 that led to their
midterm 2010 election debacle have
never really changed. Those
policies in 2010 did little to
create jobs, ignored the foreclosure
crisis and failed to generate a
sustained housing recovery, and did
nothing about working families’
steady decline in wages and
incomes. That cost the Democrats
the U.S. House of Representatives in
2010.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>Today
in 2014 little is fundamentally
different after four years, except
that the key voter constituencies
Democrats are courting in 2014
Senate races—i.e. Hispanic, student
youth, and union workers—have been
even more abused in the interim.
This time voter response could be
even worse, given the overlay of
other, additional legitimate
grievances by large voter
constituencies that previously voted
for Democrats. </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>A
close look at the 2012 elections
shows that Obama won re-election
largely because of Hispanic, student
youth, and union labor votes
delivered him the key states that
made the difference in his U.S.
electoral college vote results. In
addition to the continuing economic
legacies of 2010, these key
constituencies now have additional
grievances with the Democrats.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>Millions
of Latino immigrants and Hispanics
who had high hopes that Democrats
and Obama would address their needs
and grievances no longer believe
Democrats and Obama can deliver a
solution. Millions of students with
a combined more than $1 trillion in
loan debt, who are now paying tens
of billions a year in excess
above-market interest to the U.S.
government no longer believe
meaningful debt relief is possible,
even though it could with a mere
stroke of Obama’s pen.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>And
union workers who delivered key
Midwest states to Democrats and
Obama in 2012, and have received
virtually nothing from Obama since
2008 in return (except perhaps the
very real prospect of losing their
negotiated health benefits in the
next few years due to the Obamacare
health act) have seen the Obama
administration reject their unions’
every appeal for assistance and
reconsideration since 2012. </span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big><span>It’s
not that these key constituencies
will vote Republican. It’s that they
will likely not vote Democrat. They
will vote with ‘the seat of their
pants’, as they say, and stay home.
And that means the loss of the
Senate for Democrats next week.</span></big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big> </big></big></big></big></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><big><big><big><big> </big></big></big></big></p>
</div>
<br>
</div>
<br>
</div>
<div style="color:#fff;min-height:0">__._,_.___</div>
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Posted by: David Johnson <<a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:davidjohnson1451@comcast.net"
target="_blank">davidjohnson1451@comcast.net</a>>
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