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A new report by the US Army War Colleges Strategic Studies
Institute emphasises the need for US security and military support
to its key allies in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly Israel,
over access to recent vast discoveries of regional oil and gas,
writes Nafeez Ahmed in Middle East Eye.<br>
<br>
Some quotes, with the full story below:<br>
<br>
"[I]n 2013 Israel granted oil exploration licenses in the
Syrian-claimed Golan Heights, spelling potential for another armed
conflict between the two parties should substantial hydrocarbon
resources be discovered. According to a report to the UN Security
Council in early December, Israel has been in regular contact with
Syrian rebels, including<span class="Apple-converted-space"></span><a
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; TEXT-DECORATION: none; COLOR:
rgb(103,120,185)"
href="http://www.ibtimes.co.in/un-report-israel-regular-contact-syrian-rebels-including-isis-616404"
target="_blank">Islamic State fighters</a>, raising the question
of Israels role in supporting anti-Assad extremists to cement its
control of Golans potential fossil fuel resources."<br>
<br>
and<br>
<br>
"[T]he report highlights the possibility of Israel piping gas to
Turkey, where it can be exported to European markets, making Turkey
a regional gas transhipment hub. This would allow both Turkey and
Europe to wean off their Russian gas dependence, and integrate
instead into a peaceful US-Israeli dominated regional energy
architecture."<br>
<br>
and of course<br>
<br>
US security and military support for its main allies in the case of
an eruption of natural resource conflict in the East Mediterranean
may prove essential in managing possible future conflict.<br>
<br>
and the author, Nafeez Ahmed, summarizes -<br>
<br>
"This Orwellian document thus reveals that in the name of
maintaining regional peace, a new Great Game is at play. To counter
Russian and Chinese influence while cementing influence over its
Arab allies, US military strategists are contemplating the threat of
war to redraw the Middle Easts energy architecture around Israel."
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-------- Original Message --------
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<th align="RIGHT" nowrap="nowrap" valign="BASELINE">Subject:
</th>
<td>[ufpj-activist] US Army report calls for military
support of Israeli energy grab</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="RIGHT" nowrap="nowrap" valign="BASELINE">Date: </th>
<td>Mon, 5 Jan 2015 05:08:33 +0000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="RIGHT" nowrap="nowrap" valign="BASELINE">From: </th>
<td>Michael Eisenscher
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:m_eisenscher@uslaboragainstwar.org"><m_eisenscher@uslaboragainstwar.org></a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="RIGHT" nowrap="nowrap" valign="BASELINE">Reply-To:
</th>
<td>Michael Eisenscher
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:m_eisenscher@uslaboragainstwar.org"><m_eisenscher@uslaboragainstwar.org></a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="RIGHT" nowrap="nowrap" valign="BASELINE">To: </th>
<td>ufpj-activist <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:ufpj-activist@lists.mayfirst.org"><ufpj-activist@lists.mayfirst.org></a></td>
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energy grab</h1>
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<div class="field-item even"
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1 January 2015 17:02 GMT</div>
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<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px">US
military strategists are contemplating the
threat of war to redraw the Middle East€™s
energy architecture around Israel</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="field field-name-body
field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"
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<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">A new report by the US Army War College€™s
Strategic Studies Institute emphasises the need
for €œUS security and military support€ to its
key allies in the Eastern Mediterranean,
particularly Israel, over access to recent vast
discoveries of regional oil and gas.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">The<span class="Apple-converted-space"></span><a
moz-do-not-send="true" style="BOX-SIZING:
border-box; TEXT-DECORATION: none; COLOR:
rgb(103,120,185)"
href="https://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1243.pdf"
target="_blank">Army study</a>, released earlier
in December 2014, concludes that extensive US
military involvement €œmay prove essential in
managing possible future conflict€ in case of
€œan eruption of natural resource conflict in the
East Mediterranean,€ due to huge gas discoveries
in recent years.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">Visible US engagement is also necessary to
ward off the regional encroachment of €œemerging
powers and potential new peace brokers such as
Russia - which already entertains a strong
interest in East Mediterranean gas developments -
and notably China.€</p>
<h3 style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN-BOTTOM:
10px; FONT-SIZE: 16px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Open Sans',
Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; FONT-WEIGHT: 700;
MARGIN-TOP: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 18px">Fossil fuel
bonanza in the Levant</h3>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">Since 2000, the Levant basin - an area
encompassing the offshore territories of Israel,
Palestine, Cyprus, Turkey, Egypt, Syria, and
Lebanon - has been estimated to hold as much as
1.7 bn barrels of oil and up to 122 trillion cubic
feet (tcf) of natural gas. As much of the
region€™s potential resources remain
undiscovered, geologists believe this could be
just a third of the total quantities of fossil
fuels in the Levant.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">The new US Army report argues that these
hydrocarbon discoveries are of €œtremendous
economic and geostrategic significance,€ not
just for its allies, but for the United States
itself. Israel especially stands to €œgain
considerably from their newly discovered gas
wealth€ in terms of cost-effective energy for
domestic consumption and revenues from gas
exports.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">But while the discoveries offer the prospect
for closer regional cooperation, they also raise
€œthe potential for conflict over these valuable
resources.€ The potential for resource conflicts
over oil and gas relates directly to intractable
border conflicts between Israel, the Palestinians,
Lebanon and Syria, as well as the unresolved
Cypriot question between Greece and Turkey. US
interests are to minimise the risk of conflict
between its core allies, while maximising their
capacity to exploit these resources.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">€œIsrael, Cyprus, and Turkey are key
strategic US allies,€ the report says.
€œNeighbouring Egypt, Syria and Lebanon play
important roles from the European and US
perspective, both as direct neighbours to Israel
and the Palestinian Territories as well as because
of their strategically important location as the
geographic interconnection between Europe, North
Africa, and the Middle East.€</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">The new US Army report is authored by
Mohammed al-Katiri and Laura al-Katiri. Mohammed
al-Katiri was previously research director at the
UK Ministry of Defence€™s (MoD) Advanced Research
and Assessment Group (ARAG), but now heads up two
private intelligence consultancies,<span
class="Apple-converted-space"></span><a
moz-do-not-send="true" style="BOX-SIZING:
border-box; TEXT-DECORATION: none; COLOR:
rgb(103,120,185)"
href="http://www.menainsights.com/team1"
target="_blank">MENA Insight</a><span
class="Apple-converted-space"></span>and the<span
class="Apple-converted-space"></span><a
moz-do-not-send="true" style="BOX-SIZING:
border-box; TEXT-DECORATION: none; COLOR:
rgb(103,120,185)"
href="http://www.conflictstudies.org.uk/key-personnel.php"
target="_blank">Conflict Studies Research Centre</a>
(CSRC), both of which provide services to
government and commercial sectors, including the
oil and gas industry.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) which
published the report, calls itself an Army
€œthink factory€ for €œcommanders and civilian
leaders.€ SSI uses independent analysis to help
€œdevelop policy recommendations€ for the US
Army on national security and to €œinfluence
policy debate€ across the military.</p>
<h3 style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN-BOTTOM:
10px; FONT-SIZE: 16px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Open Sans',
Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; FONT-WEIGHT: 700;
MARGIN-TOP: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 18px">Advancing
Israel€™s energy empire</h3>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">The SSI report on the risk of Middle East
resource conflicts notes that Israel€™s massive
offshore gas discoveries €œhave yet to translate
into proven gas reserves,€ but that it€™s total
of 9.48 tcf of proven and 30 tcf estimated
reserves, positions Israel €œahead of all East
Mediterranean countries in terms of gas reserves
and resource prospectivity.€</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">The Army report also reveals that Syria
could hold significant offshore oil and gas
potential. In 2007, before the outbreak of
hostilities, President Bashar al-Assad launched a
first bidding round to secure investment into new
exploration efforts, and another in 2012 that was
cancelled due to deteriorating security
conditions.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">€œOnce the Syria conflict is resolved,
prospects for Syrian offshore production -
provided commercial resources are found - are
high,€ observes the report. Potential oil and
gas resources can be developed €œrelatively
smoothly once the political situation allows for
any new exploration efforts in its offshore
territories.€</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">The report also mentions significant gas
finds in the offshore territories of Lebanon and
Palestine, including the Gaza Marine, which holds
over 1 tcf €“ production of which has been
€œobstruction by Israel over concerns regarding
the flow of revenues to Palestinian
stakeholders.€ But in addition to the Gaza
Marine, €œPalestinian offshore territories near
Gaza are believed to hold substantial hydrocarbon
potential,€ whose total quantities are still
unknown because a lack of exploration there:</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">€œBoth Israel and Cyprus are key US allies
and pillars of US foreign policy in the region:
Israel, with its long history of close political
ties with the United States, historically has
stood at the heart of American efforts to secure
regional peace; while Cyprus forms the most
eastern part of Europe and is an important
strategic location for both US and British
military interests.€</p>
<h3 style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN-BOTTOM:
10px; FONT-SIZE: 16px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Open Sans',
Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; FONT-WEIGHT: 700;
MARGIN-TOP: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 18px"><strong
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; FONT-WEIGHT:
bold">Regional war</strong></h3>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">The region faces four main potential arcs of
conflict. Firstly, in Israel-Palestine, the US
Army study warns that €œthe presence of valuable
natural resources in disputed territory may
further feed the conflict.€</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">Secondly, rival claims between Israel and
Lebanon over maritime boundaries could
€œcomplicate€ the development of regional
offshore hydrocarbon resources and result in
military confrontation.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">Thirdly, that risk has, in turn, delayed
efforts to define Cypriot-Israeli and
Cypriot-Lebanese exclusive economic maritime
zones.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">Fourthly, in 2013 Israel granted oil
exploration licenses in the Syrian-claimed Golan
Heights, spelling €œpotential for another armed
conflict between the two parties should
substantial hydrocarbon resources be
discovered.€ According to a report to the UN
Security Council in early December, Israel has
been in regular contact with Syrian rebels,
including<span class="Apple-converted-space"></span><a
moz-do-not-send="true" style="BOX-SIZING:
border-box; TEXT-DECORATION: none; COLOR:
rgb(103,120,185)"
href="http://www.ibtimes.co.in/un-report-israel-regular-contact-syrian-rebels-including-isis-616404"
target="_blank">Islamic State fighters</a>,
raising the question of Israel€™s role in
supporting anti-Assad extremists to cement its
control of Golan€™s potential fossil fuel
resources.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">The US Army study highlights a real risk
that tensions across these flashpoints could
escalate into a wider regional conflict:</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">€œIn the case of an armed conflict between
Israel and Lebanon, the security of the wider
Levant region could once again be at stake, with a
possible escalation of the conflict into
neighbouring Syria and the Palestinian
Territories, as well as (with historical
precedents) Jordan and Egypt. In combination, the
pre-existing political problems in all of these
countries €“ Syria destabilizing into de facto
civil war, Egypt in the midst of political
instability, the Palestinians and Lebanese lacking
stable political cores €“ the potential for a
new, escalating regional war is a threatening
scenario indeed.€</p>
<h3 style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN-BOTTOM:
10px; FONT-SIZE: 16px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Open Sans',
Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; FONT-WEIGHT: 700;
MARGIN-TOP: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 18px">War for peace
(for gas)</h3>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">To stave off this disturbing prospect, the
US report recommends that Israel and other Levant
gas hubs like Lebanon and Cyprus play a key role
in exporting Eastern Mediterranean gas to their
Arab neighbours, such as Egypt, Turkey and Jordan,
given that Middle East demand for gas is projected
to rise dramatically in coming decades.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">Further, the report highlights the
possibility of Israel piping gas to Turkey, where
it can be exported to European markets, making
Turkey a regional gas transhipment hub. This would
allow both Turkey and Europe to wean off their
Russian gas dependence, and integrate instead into
a €œpeaceful€ US-Israeli dominated regional
energy architecture.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">As has been confirmed by Quartet Middle East
envoy Tony Blair€™s energy advisor, Ariel Ezrahi,
Gaza€™s offshore gas resources are seen as a<span
class="Apple-converted-space"></span><a
moz-do-not-send="true" style="BOX-SIZING:
border-box; TEXT-DECORATION: none; COLOR:
rgb(103,120,185)"
href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/israel-s-looming-gas-empire-requires-final-solution-gaza-1582434143"
target="_blank">potential bridge</a><span
class="Apple-converted-space"></span>to
overcome popular Arab public opposition to gas
deals with Israel. €œIsraeli as well as
Palestinian offshore hydrocarbon resources could
play a significant role in facilitating mutual
trust and the willingness to cooperate,€ the US
Army study suggests, €œincluding between Israel
and a few of its other Arab neighbours, Jordan and
Egypt.€</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">But ultimately this architecture cannot be
installed without extensive US intervention of
some kind. €œUS diplomatic and military support
has a pivotal role to play in the East
Mediterranean€™s complex geopolitical landscape,
and its importance will only grow as the value of
the natural resources at stake increases,€
concludes the Army report:</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">€œUS security and military support for its
main allies in the case of an eruption of natural
resource conflict in the East Mediterranean may
prove essential in managing possible future
conflict.€</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">Diplomatically, the US could play a
significant role in mediating between the various
parties to facilitate successful oil and gas
development projects across the East
Mediterranean, not just for €œIsrael€™s sake,€
but also to shore-up allies like Jordan and Egypt
with €œlow-cost Israeli gas,€ contributing to
regional economic and thus political stability:</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">€œUS support - diplomatic and, where
necessary, military - can form a potentially
powerful element in the safeguarding of these
long-term economic benefits, at little cost in
relative terms.€</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">If regional tensions escalate though, the
report warns that €œthe United States also holds
an important military position that could have an
impact in securing the East Mediterranean,€
including €œmilitary training and equipment
support€ to defend Cyprus and Israel from
attacks on €œtheir energy infrastructure and gas
developments.€</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px">This Orwellian document thus reveals that in
the name of maintaining regional peace, a new
Great Game is at play. To counter Russian and
Chinese influence while cementing influence over
its Arab allies, US military strategists are
contemplating the threat of war to redraw the
Middle East€™s energy architecture around Israel.</p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px"><strong style="BOX-SIZING: border-box;
FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><em style="BOX-SIZING:
border-box">- Nafeez Ahmed</em></strong><em
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box">PhD, is an<a
moz-do-not-send="true" style="BOX-SIZING:
border-box; TEXT-DECORATION: none; COLOR:
rgb(103,120,185)"
href="http://www.nafeezahmed.com/"
target="_blank">investigative journalist</a>,
international security scholar and bestselling
author who tracks what he calls the '<a
moz-do-not-send="true" style="BOX-SIZING:
border-box; TEXT-DECORATION: none; COLOR:
rgb(103,120,185)"
href="http://www.crisisofcivilization.com/"
target="_blank">crisis of civilization</a>.'
He is a winner of the Project Censored Award for
Outstanding Investigative Journalism for his
Guardian reporting on the intersection of global
ecological, energy and economic crises with
regional geopolitics and conflicts. He has also
written for The Independent,Sydney Morning
Herald, The Age, The Scotsman, Foreign Policy,
The Atlantic, Quartz, Prospect, New Statesman,
Le Monde diplomatique, New Internationalist.His
work on the root causes and covert operations
linked to international terrorism officially
contributed to the 9/11 Commission and the 7/7
Coroner€™s Inquest.</em></p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px 0px
10px"><em style="BOX-SIZING: border-box">The views
expressed in this article belong to the author
and do not necessarily reflect the editorial
policy of Middle East Eye.</em></p>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box; MARGIN: 0px"><em
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box">Photo:<span
class="Apple-converted-space"></span></em><em
style="BOX-SIZING: border-box">An Egyptian man
looks at flames rising from a pipeline that
delivers gas to Israel and Jordan after it was
hit by an explosion some 40 kilometres (25
miles) west of the town of Al-Arish in the north
of the Sinai peninsula, early on 10 November,
2011 (AFP)</em></p>
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