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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body bgcolor=white lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Thanks for posting this Stuart !<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>It definitely explains a few things, like the sudden urge as of a few years ago for the U.S. government to topple Assad in Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>I saw postings back last Spring and Summer about Israel also supporting ISIS along with Saudi Arabia and the U.S., but nothing substantial as far as evidence. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>This confirms that info.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>David J.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext'> Peace-discuss [mailto:peace-discuss-bounces@lists.chambana.net] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Stuart Levy via Peace-discuss<br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, January 05, 2015 6:41 AM<br><b>To:</b> Peace Discuss<br><b>Subject:</b> [Peace-discuss] Fwd: [ufpj-activist] US Army report calls for ‘military support’ of Israeli energy grab<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>A new report by the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute emphasises the need for “US security and military support” to its key allies in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly Israel, over access to recent vast discoveries of regional oil and gas, writes Nafeez Ahmed in Middle East Eye.<br><br>Some quotes, with the full story below:<br><br>"[I]n 2013 Israel granted oil exploration licenses in the Syrian-claimed Golan Heights, spelling “potential for another armed conflict between the two parties should substantial hydrocarbon resources be discovered.” According to a report to the UN Security Council in early December, Israel has been in regular contact with Syrian rebels, including<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.in/un-report-israel-regular-contact-syrian-rebels-including-isis-616404" target="_blank"><span style='color:#6778B9;text-decoration:none'>Islamic State fighters</span></a>, raising the question of Israel’s role in supporting anti-Assad extremists to cement its control of Golan’s potential fossil fuel resources."<br><br>and<br><br>"[T]he report highlights the possibility of Israel piping gas to Turkey, where it can be exported to European markets, making Turkey a regional gas transhipment hub. This would allow both Turkey and Europe to wean off their Russian gas dependence, and integrate instead into a “peaceful” US-Israeli dominated regional energy architecture."<br><br>and of course<br><br>“US security and military support for its main allies in the case of an eruption of natural resource conflict in the East Mediterranean may prove essential in managing possible future conflict.”<br><br>and the author, Nafeez Ahmed, summarizes -<br><br>"This Orwellian document thus reveals that in the name of maintaining regional peace, a new Great Game is at play. To counter Russian and Chinese influence while cementing influence over its Arab allies, US military strategists are contemplating the threat of war to redraw the Middle East’s energy architecture around Israel." <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><br>-------- Original Message -------- <o:p></o:p></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0><tr><td nowrap valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><b>Subject: <o:p></o:p></b></p></td><td style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal>[ufpj-activist] US Army report calls for ‘military support’ of Israeli energy grab<o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><b>Date: <o:p></o:p></b></p></td><td style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal>Mon, 5 Jan 2015 05:08:33 +0000<o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><b>From: <o:p></o:p></b></p></td><td style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal>Michael Eisenscher <a href="mailto:m_eisenscher@uslaboragainstwar.org"><m_eisenscher@uslaboragainstwar.org></a><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><b>Reply-To: <o:p></o:p></b></p></td><td style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal>Michael Eisenscher <a href="mailto:m_eisenscher@uslaboragainstwar.org"><m_eisenscher@uslaboragainstwar.org></a><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr><td nowrap valign=top style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal align=right style='text-align:right'><b>To: <o:p></o:p></b></p></td><td style='padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal>ufpj-activist <a href="mailto:ufpj-activist@lists.mayfirst.org"><ufpj-activist@lists.mayfirst.org></a><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></p><div style='margin-left:-11.25pt;margin-right:-11.25pt;BOX-SIZING: border-box;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px'><div id=content-top><div><div><div><div><div style='margin-bottom:11.25pt;BOX-SIZING:
border-box'><div><div style='margin-bottom:9.0pt;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><div><div><h1 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:3.75pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:22.5pt;background:white'><span style='font-size:21.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>US Army report calls for ‘military support’ of Israeli energy grab<o:p></o:p></span></h1><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:15.0pt;background:white'><span class=topic-hashtag><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'><a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/topics/energy"><span style='color:#6778B9;text-decoration:none'>#Energy</span></a></span></b></span><b><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p></div></div></div><div style='margin-right:11.25pt;BOX-SIZING: border-box;float:left'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:15.0pt;background:white'><a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/users/nafeez-ahmed"><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#6778B9;border:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=64 height=64 id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image003.jpg@01D028BF.A4969160" alt="Description: Image removed by sender. Nafeez Ahmed's picture"></span></a><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div><div style='border:solid #4FB8BD 1.0pt;border-bottom:solid #4FB8BD 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;margin-bottom:11.25pt;BOX-SIZING: border-box;overflow:hidden' id="node_article_column_column_header_group_authorwrap"><div><div style='border:none;border-top:none windowtext 1.0pt;padding:11.0pt 0in 0in 0in;BOX-SIZING:
border-box' id="node_article_column_column_header_group_published_by"><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:15.0pt;background:white'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'><a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/users/nafeez-ahmed"><span style='color:black;text-decoration:none'>Nafeez Ahmed</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p></div></div></div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:15.0pt;background:white'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Thursday 1 January 2015 17:02 GMT<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style='border:solid #0076AF 1.0pt;border-top:solid #0076AF 1.5pt;padding:11.0pt 0in 0in 31.0pt;BOX-SIZING:
border-box;MIN-HEIGHT: 55px;overflow:hidden' id="node_article_column_column_header_group_terms_comment_count"><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:15.0pt;background:white'><span style='font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'><a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/us-army-report-calls-military-support-israeli-energy-grab-57185571">http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/us-army-report-calls-military-support-israeli-energy-grab-57185571</a></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style='margin-left:-11.25pt;margin-right:-11.25pt;BOX-SIZING: border-box;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px'><div><div><div><div style='margin-bottom:11.25pt;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:15.0pt;background:white'><span style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333;border:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in'><img border=0 width=620 height=411 id="Picture_x0020_2" src="cid:image004.jpg@01D028BF.A4969160" alt="Description: Image removed by sender."></span><span style='font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div style='margin-bottom:15.0pt;BOX-SIZING:
border-box'><div><div><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:14.4pt;background:white'><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>US military strategists are contemplating the threat of war to redraw the Middle East’s energy architecture around Israel<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div><div style='border-top:solid #4FB8BD 1.5pt;border-left:solid #4FB8BD 1.0pt;border-bottom:none;border-right:solid #4FB8BD 1.0pt;padding:11.0pt 0in 0in 0in;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>A new report by the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute emphasises the need for “US security and military support†to its key allies in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly Israel, over access to recent vast discoveries of regional oil and gas.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>The<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><a href="https://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1243.pdf" target="_blank"><span style='color:#6778B9;text-decoration:none'>Army study</span></a>, released earlier in December 2014, concludes that extensive US military involvement “may prove essential in managing possible future conflict†in case of “an eruption of natural resource conflict in the East Mediterranean,†due to huge gas discoveries in recent years.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Visible US engagement is also necessary to ward off the regional encroachment of “emerging powers and potential new peace brokers such as Russia - which already entertains a strong interest in East Mediterranean gas developments - and notably China.â€<o:p></o:p></span></p><h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:13.5pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Fossil fuel bonanza in the Levant<o:p></o:p></span></h3><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Since 2000, the Levant basin - an area encompassing the offshore territories of Israel, Palestine, Cyprus, Turkey, Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon - has been estimated to hold as much as 1.7 bn barrels of oil and up to 122 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas. As much of the region’s potential resources remain undiscovered, geologists believe this could be just a third of the total quantities of fossil fuels in the Levant.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>The new US Army report argues that these hydrocarbon discoveries are of “tremendous economic and geostrategic significance,†not just for its allies, but for the United States itself. Israel especially stands to “gain considerably from their newly discovered gas wealth†in terms of cost-effective energy for domestic consumption and revenues from gas exports.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>But while the discoveries offer the prospect for closer regional cooperation, they also raise “the potential for conflict over these valuable resources.†The potential for resource conflicts over oil and gas relates directly to intractable border conflicts between Israel, the Palestinians, Lebanon and Syria, as well as the unresolved Cypriot question between Greece and Turkey. US interests are to minimise the risk of conflict between its core allies, while maximising their capacity to exploit these resources.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>“Israel, Cyprus, and Turkey are key strategic US allies,†the report says. “Neighbouring Egypt, Syria and Lebanon play important roles from the European and US perspective, both as direct neighbours to Israel and the Palestinian Territories as well as because of their strategically important location as the geographic interconnection between Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East.â€<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>The new US Army report is authored by Mohammed al-Katiri and Laura al-Katiri. Mohammed al-Katiri was previously research director at the UK Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) Advanced Research and Assessment Group (ARAG), but now heads up two private intelligence consultancies,<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><a href="http://www.menainsights.com/team1" target="_blank"><span style='color:#6778B9;text-decoration:none'>MENA Insight</span></a><span class=apple-converted-space> </span>and the<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><a href="http://www.conflictstudies.org.uk/key-personnel.php" target="_blank"><span style='color:#6778B9;text-decoration:none'>Conflict Studies Research Centre</span></a> (CSRC), both of which provide services to government and commercial sectors, including the oil and gas industry.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) which published the report, calls itself an Army “think factory†for “commanders and civilian leaders.†SSI uses independent analysis to help “develop policy recommendations†for the US Army on national security and to “influence policy debate†across the military.<o:p></o:p></span></p><h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:13.5pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Advancing Israel’s energy empire<o:p></o:p></span></h3><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>The SSI report on the risk of Middle East resource conflicts notes that Israel’s massive offshore gas discoveries “have yet to translate into proven gas reserves,†but that it’s total of 9.48 tcf of proven and 30 tcf estimated reserves, positions Israel “ahead of all East Mediterranean countries in terms of gas reserves and resource prospectivity.â€<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>The Army report also reveals that Syria could hold significant offshore oil and gas potential. In 2007, before the outbreak of hostilities, President Bashar al-Assad launched a first bidding round to secure investment into new exploration efforts, and another in 2012 that was cancelled due to deteriorating security conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>“Once the Syria conflict is resolved, prospects for Syrian offshore production - provided commercial resources are found - are high,†observes the report. Potential oil and gas resources can be developed “relatively smoothly once the political situation allows for any new exploration efforts in its offshore territories.â€<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>The report also mentions significant gas finds in the offshore territories of Lebanon and Palestine, including the Gaza Marine, which holds over 1 tcf – production of which has been “obstruction by Israel over concerns regarding the flow of revenues to Palestinian stakeholders.†But in addition to the Gaza Marine, “Palestinian offshore territories near Gaza are believed to hold substantial hydrocarbon potential,†whose total quantities are still unknown because a lack of exploration there:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>“Both Israel and Cyprus are key US allies and pillars of US foreign policy in the region: Israel, with its long history of close political ties with the United States, historically has stood at the heart of American efforts to secure regional peace; while Cyprus forms the most eastern part of Europe and is an important strategic location for both US and British military interests.â€<o:p></o:p></span></p><h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:13.5pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><strong><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Regional war</span></strong><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'><o:p></o:p></span></h3><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>The region faces four main potential arcs of conflict. Firstly, in Israel-Palestine, the US Army study warns that “the presence of valuable natural resources in disputed territory may further feed the conflict.â€<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Secondly, rival claims between Israel and Lebanon over maritime boundaries could “complicate†the development of regional offshore hydrocarbon resources and result in military confrontation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Thirdly, that risk has, in turn, delayed efforts to define Cypriot-Israeli and Cypriot-Lebanese exclusive economic maritime zones.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Fourthly, in 2013 Israel granted oil exploration licenses in the Syrian-claimed Golan Heights, spelling “potential for another armed conflict between the two parties should substantial hydrocarbon resources be discovered.†According to a report to the UN Security Council in early December, Israel has been in regular contact with Syrian rebels, including<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.in/un-report-israel-regular-contact-syrian-rebels-including-isis-616404" target="_blank"><span style='color:#6778B9;text-decoration:none'>Islamic State fighters</span></a>, raising the question of Israel’s role in supporting anti-Assad extremists to cement its control of Golan’s potential fossil fuel resources.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>The US Army study highlights a real risk that tensions across these flashpoints could escalate into a wider regional conflict:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>“In the case of an armed conflict between Israel and Lebanon, the security of the wider Levant region could once again be at stake, with a possible escalation of the conflict into neighbouring Syria and the Palestinian Territories, as well as (with historical precedents) Jordan and Egypt. In combination, the pre-existing political problems in all of these countries – Syria destabilizing into de facto civil war, Egypt in the midst of political instability, the Palestinians and Lebanese lacking stable political cores – the potential for a new, escalating regional war is a threatening scenario indeed.â€<o:p></o:p></span></p><h3 style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:13.5pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>War for peace (for gas)<o:p></o:p></span></h3><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>To stave off this disturbing prospect, the US report recommends that Israel and other Levant gas hubs like Lebanon and Cyprus play a key role in exporting Eastern Mediterranean gas to their Arab neighbours, such as Egypt, Turkey and Jordan, given that Middle East demand for gas is projected to rise dramatically in coming decades.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Further, the report highlights the possibility of Israel piping gas to Turkey, where it can be exported to European markets, making Turkey a regional gas transhipment hub. This would allow both Turkey and Europe to wean off their Russian gas dependence, and integrate instead into a “peaceful†US-Israeli dominated regional energy architecture.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>As has been confirmed by Quartet Middle East envoy Tony Blair’s energy advisor, Ariel Ezrahi, Gaza’s offshore gas resources are seen as a<span class=apple-converted-space> </span><a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/israel-s-looming-gas-empire-requires-final-solution-gaza-1582434143" target="_blank"><span style='color:#6778B9;text-decoration:none'>potential bridge</span></a><span class=apple-converted-space> </span>to overcome popular Arab public opposition to gas deals with Israel. “Israeli as well as Palestinian offshore hydrocarbon resources could play a significant role in facilitating mutual trust and the willingness to cooperate,†the US Army study suggests, “including between Israel and a few of its other Arab neighbours, Jordan and Egypt.â€<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>But ultimately this architecture cannot be installed without extensive US intervention of some kind. “US diplomatic and military support has a pivotal role to play in the East Mediterranean’s complex geopolitical landscape, and its importance will only grow as the value of the natural resources at stake increases,†concludes the Army report:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>“US security and military support for its main allies in the case of an eruption of natural resource conflict in the East Mediterranean may prove essential in managing possible future conflict.â€<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Diplomatically, the US could play a significant role in mediating between the various parties to facilitate successful oil and gas development projects across the East Mediterranean, not just for “Israel’s sake,†but also to shore-up allies like Jordan and Egypt with “low-cost Israeli gas,†contributing to regional economic and thus political stability:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>“US support - diplomatic and, where necessary, military - can form a potentially powerful element in the safeguarding of these long-term economic benefits, at little cost in relative terms.â€<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>If regional tensions escalate though, the report warns that “the United States also holds an important military position that could have an impact in securing the East Mediterranean,†including “military training and equipment support†to defend Cyprus and Israel from attacks on “their energy infrastructure and gas developments.â€<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>This Orwellian document thus reveals that in the name of maintaining regional peace, a new Great Game is at play. To counter Russian and Chinese influence while cementing influence over its Arab allies, US military strategists are contemplating the threat of war to redraw the Middle East’s energy architecture around Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><em><b><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'> - Nafeez Ahmed</span></b></em><strong><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'> </span></strong><em><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>PhD, is an <a href="http://www.nafeezahmed.com/" target="_blank"><span style='color:#6778B9;text-decoration:none'>investigative journalist</span></a>, international security scholar and bestselling author who tracks what he calls the '<a href="http://www.crisisofcivilization.com/" target="_blank"><span style='color:#6778B9;text-decoration:none'>crisis of civilization</span></a>.' He is a winner of the Project Censored Award for Outstanding Investigative Journalism for his Guardian reporting on the intersection of global ecological, energy and economic crises with regional geopolitics and conflicts. He has also written for The Independent, Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, The Scotsman, Foreign Policy, The Atlantic, Quartz, Prospect, New Statesman, Le Monde diplomatique, New Internationalist. His work on the root causes and covert operations linked to international terrorism officially contributed to the 9/11 Commission and the 7/7 Coroner’s Inquest.</span></em><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:7.5pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><em><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.</span></em><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:15.0pt;background:white;BOX-SIZING: border-box'><em><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>Photo:</span></em><span class=apple-converted-space><i><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'> </span></i></span><em><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'>An Egyptian man looks at flames rising from a pipeline that delivers gas to Israel and Jordan after it was hit by an explosion some 40 kilometres (25 miles) west of the town of Al-Arish in the north of the Sinai peninsula, early on 10 November, 2011 (AFP)</span></em><span style='font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#333333'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>