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"<span style="margin:0px;padding:0px"><span
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;color:rgb(136,136,136)">However,
inflation is picking up, as citizens will have noticed. It hit
8% in March — it’s highest level since October 2001. This is in
part due to a shrinking food supply — caused, among other
things, by one of the worst droughts — which has forced food
prices up."</span></span>
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<th valign="BASELINE" align="RIGHT" nowrap="nowrap">Subject:
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<td>[ufpj-activist] Colombia’s economic outlook darkens:
report - Leftist leader joins Santos government</td>
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<th valign="BASELINE" align="RIGHT" nowrap="nowrap">Date: </th>
<td>Thu, 28 Apr 2016 06:53:34 -0500</td>
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<th valign="BASELINE" align="RIGHT" nowrap="nowrap">From: </th>
<td>Cort Greene <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:cort.greene@gmail.com"><cort.greene@gmail.com></a></td>
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<th valign="BASELINE" align="RIGHT" nowrap="nowrap">To: </th>
<td><a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:globalresistance@yahoogroups.com">globalresistance@yahoogroups.com</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:globalresistance@yahoogroups.com"><globalresistance@yahoogroups.com></a></td>
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href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__colombiareports.com_leftist-2Dopposition-2Dleader-2Dresigns-2Daccepting-2Djob-2Dgovernment_&d=CwMFaQ&c=8hUWFZcy2Z-Za5rBPlktOQ&r=_iuwmBDMEAIAz6k1h--JVoji6x5mlDiImSbbdIp2zWg&m=VN23gEflrNYnNju86hPx_CEaapouFZ2pcq9Wh4XvT_Y&s=JrWhZGXEcOWsTgeAV3Z0HJFfGMOaMj8709dnd4HFZns&e="
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26px;padding:0px;text-align:center;vertical-align:top"><a
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href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__s3.amazonaws.com_colombiareports_wp-2Dcontent_uploads_2016_04_26120325_clara-5Flopez.jpg&d=CwMFaQ&c=8hUWFZcy2Z-Za5rBPlktOQ&r=_iuwmBDMEAIAz6k1h--JVoji6x5mlDiImSbbdIp2zWg&m=VN23gEflrNYnNju86hPx_CEaapouFZ2pcq9Wh4XvT_Y&s=GhohpFWsAd1OC8RhtHbtK0_jfYj6IijvIjjP4SNiQPI&e="
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alt="Clara Lopez"
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:none;max-width:100%;vertical-align:top;min-height:auto"
width="1024" height="576"></a></div>
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target="_blank">NEWS</a></span></div>
<h1
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:24px;margin:0px;padding:0px;letter-spacing:1px">Colombia’s
leftist opposition leader resigns after accepting job
in government</h1>
<div
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:6px
0px 0px;padding:0px"><span style="margin:6px 0px
0px;padding:0px;color:rgb(136,136,136);font-style:italic"><span
style="margin:0px;padding:0px">written by <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__colombiareports.com_author_thomasgraham_&d=CwMFaQ&c=8hUWFZcy2Z-Za5rBPlktOQ&r=_iuwmBDMEAIAz6k1h--JVoji6x5mlDiImSbbdIp2zWg&m=VN23gEflrNYnNju86hPx_CEaapouFZ2pcq9Wh4XvT_Y&s=VIhHXgpvZe_oXh1nogT17UTF6W7Dv9iPnRLPN81tnp0&e="
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(49,49,49);outline:none;text-transform:capitalize"
target="_blank">Thomas Graham</a></span></span> <span
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;color:rgb(136,136,136)">April 26, 2016</span></div>
<div
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:6px
0px 0px;padding:0px"><span
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;color:rgb(136,136,136)"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="margin:6px 0px 0px;padding:0px"><span
style="margin:0px;padding:0px">
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">The
leader of Colombia’s leftist opposition resigned
after her party rejected her new job as Labor
Minister in the government she was supposed to
oppose.<span style="margin:0px;padding:0px"></span></p>
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">The
board of the Democratic Pole (PDA) party voted
unanimously to accept the resignation of Clara
Lopez as their president, following her
appointment as the new Minister of Labor.</p>
<hr
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px
17px;padding:0px;border-top-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-left-width:0px;min-height:0px;border-bottom-style:solid;border-bottom-color:rgb(222,222,222);clear:both;line-height:32.4px">
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;letter-spacing:1px;text-align:center"><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__colombiareports.com_santos-2Dincorporates-2Dleftist-2Dopposition-2Dcabinet-2Dleaving-2Duribe-2Deven-2Dmarginalized&d=CwMFaQ&c=8hUWFZcy2Z-Za5rBPlktOQ&r=_iuwmBDMEAIAz6k1h--JVoji6x5mlDiImSbbdIp2zWg&m=VN23gEflrNYnNju86hPx_CEaapouFZ2pcq9Wh4XvT_Y&s=NA_kZjzUbAdqtggJ8G-D_APO_MsELzOOt9cvuccYjvw&e="
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(220,57,18);outline:none"
target="_blank"><strong
style="margin:0px;padding:0px"><span
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Santos
incorporates leftist opposition to cabinet,
leaving Uribe even more marginalized</span></strong></a></p>
<hr
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px
17px;padding:0px;border-top-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-left-width:0px;min-height:0px;border-bottom-style:solid;border-bottom-color:rgb(222,222,222);clear:both;line-height:32.4px">
<div
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 10px
30px;padding:20px;line-height:32.4px;float:right;width:280px;background-color:rgb(238,238,238)">
<h3 style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;font-size:20px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0px;clear:both;line-height:1.3em">Profile</h3>
<h2 style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;font-size:22px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;letter-spacing:0px;clear:both;line-height:1.3em"><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__colombiareports.com_clara-2Dlopez_&d=CwMFaQ&c=8hUWFZcy2Z-Za5rBPlktOQ&r=_iuwmBDMEAIAz6k1h--JVoji6x5mlDiImSbbdIp2zWg&m=VN23gEflrNYnNju86hPx_CEaapouFZ2pcq9Wh4XvT_Y&s=vrtrskRQHUVqYKoXyYivZT3UMMri8rGg53-4vu2Pqoc&e="
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(220,57,18);outline:none"
target="_blank">Clara Lopez</a></h2>
</div>
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">The
appointment of Lopez was part of a broad cabinet
reshuffle by President Juan Manuel Santos. He
granted minister positions to both leading left
and conservative opposition politicians. This put
the parties in the peculiar position of opposing a
cabinet in which they are now represented.</p>
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">Santos
also sought to diversify his cabinet by making
appointments outside the traditional Bogota
political elite.</p>
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">In an
interview with Caracol Radio, Lopez said she is
very enthusiastic “about the challenge that Santos
has handed me in the final straight of the peaces
talks with FARC and in the opening of dialogues
with ELN.”</p>
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px"> </p>
<hr
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px
17px;padding:0px;border-top-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-left-width:0px;min-height:0px;border-bottom-style:solid;border-bottom-color:rgb(222,222,222);clear:both;line-height:32.4px">
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;text-align:center"><span
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><strong
style="margin:0px;padding:0px"><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__colombiareports.com_colombias-2Dpolitics-2Dagree-2Dequal-2Ddistribution-2Dpower-2Dslush-2Dfunds_&d=CwMFaQ&c=8hUWFZcy2Z-Za5rBPlktOQ&r=_iuwmBDMEAIAz6k1h--JVoji6x5mlDiImSbbdIp2zWg&m=VN23gEflrNYnNju86hPx_CEaapouFZ2pcq9Wh4XvT_Y&s=4n_h9CnxZIpy4UmoEblOdhhrQOixxKe4tkmU3fz86Ms&e="
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(220,57,18);outline:none"
target="_blank">Colombia’s political players
agree to more equal distribution of power
and slush funds</a></strong></span></p>
<hr
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px
17px;padding:0px;border-top-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-left-width:0px;min-height:0px;border-bottom-style:solid;border-bottom-color:rgb(222,222,222);clear:both;line-height:32.4px">
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">However,
voices within Polo were less enthusiastic. Senator
Jorge Robledo was clear that “Clara Lopez should
not accept the position. If she does she should
resign as president of Polo, so that it can
continue in opposition to Santos.”</p>
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">Following
a party meeting, it was announced that Lopez would
resign.</p>
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">“The
national executive committee of Polo Democratico
has accepted the resignation of President Clara
Lopez Obregon and announces that her decision to
take the position of minister will not compromise
the opposition of this leftist party to the
government.</p>
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">Nonetheless,
the PDA indicated that it will continue supporting
the peace talks with FARC in Havana and the
opening of negotiations with ELN.</p>
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">Those in
the Santos administration did welcome the
appointment.</p>
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px
0px 17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">The
Interior Minister, Juan Fernando Cristo, hailed
the new cabinet as more representative of the
country. “There are more women, there are more
parties, there are more regions and there are
indigenous people, and with this it demonstrates
the necessary diversity for territorial peace.”</p>
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">The
President of the Senate, Luis Fernando Velasco,
also approved of the cabinet reshuffle. “I like
the ideological diversity that comes with the
inclusion of Clara Lopez as minister of labor.
This is an important indication of the need to
forge a different country once the peace treaty
has been signed.”</p>
<p
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:0px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px">---------------------------</p>
<p style="margin:0px;padding:0px"><font
face="Georgia, serif" color="#313131"><span
style="font-size:18px;line-height:32.4px"><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__colombiareports.com_colombias-2Deconomic-2Doutlook-2Ddarkens-2Dreport_&d=CwMFaQ&c=8hUWFZcy2Z-Za5rBPlktOQ&r=_iuwmBDMEAIAz6k1h--JVoji6x5mlDiImSbbdIp2zWg&m=VN23gEflrNYnNju86hPx_CEaapouFZ2pcq9Wh4XvT_Y&s=vTZu29AmcnbzxgAl89LxbBUd1E-ikoEdHt6tcW2HBu0&e="
target="_blank"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://colombiareports.com/colombias-economic-outlook-darkens-report/">http://colombiareports.com/colombias-economic-outlook-darkens-report/</a></a></span></font><br>
</p>
<p style="margin:0px;padding:0px"><font
face="Georgia, serif" color="#313131"><span
style="font-size:18px;line-height:32.4px"><br>
</span></font></p>
<h1
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:24px;margin:0px;padding:0px;letter-spacing:1px">Colombia’s
economic outlook darkens: report</h1>
<div
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:6px
0px 0px;padding:0px"><span style="margin:6px 0px
0px;padding:0px;color:rgb(136,136,136);font-style:italic"><span
style="margin:0px;padding:0px">written by <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__colombiareports.com_author_thomasgraham_&d=CwMFaQ&c=8hUWFZcy2Z-Za5rBPlktOQ&r=_iuwmBDMEAIAz6k1h--JVoji6x5mlDiImSbbdIp2zWg&m=VN23gEflrNYnNju86hPx_CEaapouFZ2pcq9Wh4XvT_Y&s=VIhHXgpvZe_oXh1nogT17UTF6W7Dv9iPnRLPN81tnp0&e="
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;text-decoration:none;color:rgb(49,49,49);outline:none;text-transform:capitalize"
target="_blank">Thomas Graham</a></span></span> <span
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;color:rgb(136,136,136)">April 26, 2016</span></div>
<div
style="color:rgb(49,49,49);font-family:Georgia,serif;font-size:18px;margin:6px
0px 0px;padding:0px"><span
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;color:rgb(136,136,136)">
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">Colombia’s
economy is facing a bleak few years before
it’ll be able to crawl out of its economic
slump, according to a newly released report.<span
style="margin:0px;padding:0px"></span></p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">The
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast collated
research from central banks and independent
panelists to gauge the continent’s economic
outlook. Their conclusions do not bode well
for Colombia — at least in the short-term.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">The
good news was few and far between. In
February, industrial production was bolstered
by the newly-upgraded Cartagena refinery and
its index growth reached an almost two year
high. Unemployment was also down by two
percentage points.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">However,
inflation is picking up, as citizens will have
noticed. It hit 8% in March — it’s highest
level since October 2001. This is in part due
to a shrinking food supply — caused, among
other things, by one of the worst droughts —
which has forced food prices up.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">Moreover,
consumer confidence has dropped sharply since
the turn of the year, likely due to inflation
and pessimism about the country’s economic
conditions. Simply put, people are being
cautious and not willing to purchase major
items.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">According
to the report, the central bank’s efforts to
reduce inflation and the expanding current
account deficit will impede growth in 2016.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">It
has increased the reference interest rate to
6.5% in an attempt to curb inflation. The
logic here is that by increasing interest
rates, consumers will have less money to
spend. And with less money to spend, the
economy slows and inflation decreases, coming
back under control.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">However,
although interest rates are a major driver of
inflation, there are other factors involved.
So success is far from guaranteed. Panelists
estimate 2016 will close with inflation at
5.8%, and expect this to drop to 3.7% for
2017.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">Once
inflation is under control, the central bank
can take measures to accelerate growth once
more.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">However,
many events in 2016 will be beyond their
control. This is introducing a lot of
uncertainty that is reducing confidence in
Colombian markets.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">For
one, the national security situation is
unclear. Although peace treaties with FARC and
perhaps ELN are seemingly in the horizon, the
first deadline for the deal was missed and the
result is far from certain.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">Similarly,
the effect of El Niño cannot be predicted with
any surety. Many expect this year’s El Niño to
be one of the strongest in six decades. It may
result in a severe and persistent drought
across Colombia, affecting crop yields and
causing forest fires.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">Clearly
this will affect the price of basic
consumables, and thus inflation. Attempts to
limit the damage of forest fires are also
costly blow for a government that is already
running a deficit.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">However,
the biggest driver of Colombia’s recent
economic struggles has been the crash in oil
prices. Colombia is the third largest
oil-producing country in Latin America and oil
makes up roughly 50% of its exports.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">So
it is unsurprising the crash in price of a
barrel of oil has rattled it.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">The
crash is a simple matter of supply and demand.
Many economies are in recession and some are
becoming less reliant on oil. Both of these
factors are reducing demand. Yet supply has
rocketed due to an oil glut, meaning that the
price of a barrel has plummeted. This has
reduced the value of Colombia’s exports.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">The
Colombian peso is therefore strongly linked to
energy prices. Until oil-producing countries
agree a deal to freeze oil production to
increase energy prices down the line, the
Colombian peso will continue to be volatile.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">Unfortunately,
the last round of talks between oil-producing
countries on April 17th failed to produce an
agreement.</p>
<p style="margin:0px 0px
17px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">With
domestic uncertainty and a weak, unstable
international economy, 2016 looks like it will
be a trying year for Colombia. However, the
report’s panelists agreed that promising
growth would return beyond 2017.</p>
<p
style="margin:0px;padding:0px;line-height:32.4px;color:rgb(49,49,49)">But,
realistically, trying to predict the economy
that far into the future is a fool’s game.</p>
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