<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class="">We're imprecise in telling exactly when the sun set, but we know when it’s dark.<div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">This is another version of the ‘Thucydides trap’ - imprecise but suggestive historical parallels.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_T._Allison#Thucydides_Trap" class="">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_T._Allison#Thucydides_Trap</a></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">—CGE <br class=""><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Jul 19, 2018, at 4:32 PM, Brussel, Morton K via Peace-discuss <<a href="mailto:peace-discuss@lists.chambana.net" class="">peace-discuss@lists.chambana.net</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div class="">
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All terribly imprecise, hence ambiguous and not worth serious consideration. <br class="">
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<div class="">On Jul 19, 2018, at 12:48 AM, David Green via Peace-discuss <<a href="mailto:peace-discuss@lists.chambana.net" class="">peace-discuss@lists.chambana.net</a>> wrote:</div>
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<div dir="ltr" class="">"When a poor country is <em class="">very</em> poor, with a per capita income less than 25% the rich country level, it stands in a “zone of mutual gain” vis-a-vis the rich country: both countries benefit from the poor country’s progress.
But when the poor country’s income lies between 25% and 75% of the rich country’s, the two countries stand in a “zone of conflict,” in which the progress of the poor country reduces the rich country’s income. Then, once the formerly poor country’s relative
income exceeds 75%, the two nations re-enter a “zone of mutual gain,” in which the progress of one benefits the other.
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<div class="gmail-po-cn gmail-po-wc gmail-wp"><p class="">And where does that leave China today? According to the World Bank, in 2016 China’s purchasing-power-adjusted per capita income stood at exactly 26.7 percent of the US level.</p><p class="">It’s almost spooky.</p><p class="">That, perhaps, is why, in Foroohar’s words, “there is a growing group of thoughtful people who believe that American national security interests will require a forcible untangling of the investment and supply chain links between the US and China.”</p><p class="">Which means we’ve definitely entered the zone of conflict."</p><p class=""><a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2018/07/trump-trade-war-china" class="">https://www.jacobinmag.com/2018/07/trump-trade-war-china</a><br class="">
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