From carl at newsfromneptune.com  Thu Jan 12 20:18:14 2023
From: carl at newsfromneptune.com (C. G. Estabrook)
Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2023 14:18:14 -0600
Subject: [Peace] Fwd: [New post] Scott Ritter: 2023 Outlook for Ukraine
References: <174340743.32406.0@wordpress.com>
Message-ID: <7B396D82-F339-4170-A8D7-551052098E73@newsfromneptune.com>



> Begin forwarded message:
> 
> From: "scheerpost.com" <donotreply at wordpress.com>
> Subject: [New post] Scott Ritter: 2023 Outlook for Ukraine
> Date: January 12, 2023 at 5:10:08 AM CST
> To: carl at newsfromneptune.com
> 
> 	scheerpost.com <https://scheerpost.com/>
> Scott Ritter: 2023 Outlook for?Ukraine <https://public-api.wordpress.com/bar/?stat=groovemails-events&bin=wpcom_email_click&redirect_to=https%3A%2F%2Fscheerpost.com%2F2023%2F01%2F12%2Fscott-ritter-2023-outlook-for-ukraine%2F&sr=0&signature=d8c0cd38390ff4bd47be3205de899f30&blog_id=174340743&user=37e3cd0b61ad8261c8cbc92cb2eb3661&_e=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&_z=z>
> Editor
> Jan 12
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin observing military exercises in the eastern Primorsky Krai region, September 2022. (Kremlin)
> By Scott Ritter / Consortium News <https://consortiumnews.com/2023/01/11/scott-ritter-2023-outlook-for-ukraine/>
> After almost a year of dramatic action, where initial Russian advances were met with impressive Ukrainian counteroffensives, the frontlines in the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict have stabilized, with both sides engaged in bloody positional warfare, grinding each other down in a brutal attritional contest while awaiting the next major initiative from either side.
> 
> As the one-year anniversary of Russia?s invasion of Ukraine approaches, the fact that Ukraine has made it this far into the conflict represents both a moral and, to a lesser extent, a military victory.
> 
> From the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff <https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/gen-mark-milley-reportedly-warned-congress-that-a-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-could-cause-kyiv-to-fall-within-72-hours/ar-AATw5Zh> to the director of the C.I.A. <https://theintercept.com/2022/10/05/russia-ukraine-putin-cia/>, most senior military and intelligence officials in the West assessed in early 2022 that a major Russian military offensive against Ukraine would result in a rapid, decisive Russian victory.
> 
> The resilience and fortitude of the Ukrainian military surprised everyone, including the Russians, whose initial plan of action, inclusive of forces allocated to the task, proved inadequate to the tasks assigned. This perception of a Ukrainian victory, however, is misleading <https://consortiumnews.com/2022/09/12/scott-ritter-why-russia-will-still-win-despite-ukraines-gains/>.
> 
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> The Death of Diplomacy
> 
> As the dust settles on the battlefield, a pattern has emerged regarding the strategic vision behind Russia?s decision to invade Ukraine. While the mainstream Western narrative continues to paint the Russian action as a precipitous act of unprovoked aggression, a pattern of facts has emerged which suggests that the Russian case for preemptive collective self-defense under Article 51 <https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/29/russia-ukraine-the-law-of-war-crime-of-aggression/> of the United Nations Charter may have merit.
> 
> Recent admissions on the part of the officials responsible for the adoption of the Minsk Accords of both 2014 and 2015 (former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko <https://www.rt.com/russia/557307-poroshenko-comments-minsk-agreement/>, former French President Francois Hollande <https://www.rt.com/news/569201-hollande-merkel-minsk-ukraine/> and former?German Chancellor Angela Merkel <https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/merkel:-minsk-agreement-attempted-to-give-ukraine-time>) show that the goal of the Minsk agreements for the promotion of a peaceful resolution to the post-2014 conflict in the Donbass between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatists was a lie.
> 
> Instead, the Minsk Accords, according to this troika, were little more than a means to buy Ukraine time to build a military, with the assistance of NATO, capable of bringing the Donbass to heel and driving Russia out of Crimea.
> 
> Seen in this light, the establishment of a permanent training facility by the U.S. and NATO in western Ukraine <https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2017/10/ukraine-us-trains-army-west-fight-east/141577/> ? which between 2015 and 2022 trained some 30,000 Ukrainian troops to NATO standards for the sole purpose of confronting Russia in eastern Ukraine ? takes on a whole new perspective.
> 
> The admitted duplicity of Ukraine, France and Germany contrasts with Russia?s repeated insistence prior to its Feb. 24, 2022, decision to invade Ukraine that the Minsk Accords be implemented in full.
> 
> In 2008, ?former U.S. Ambassador to Russia William Burns, the current C.I.A. director, <https://libertarianinstitute.org/dont-tread-on-anyone/nyet-nato/>warned that any effort by NATO to bring Ukraine into its fold would be viewed by Russia as a threat to its national security and, if pursued, would provoke a Russian military intervention. That memo by Burns provides much-needed context to the Dec. 17, 2021, initiatives by Russia <https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/12/21/russias-draft-agreements-with-nato-and-the-united-states-intended-for-rejection/> to create a new European security framework that would keep Ukraine out of NATO.
> 
> Simply put, the trajectory of Russian diplomacy was conflict avoidance. The same cannot be said of either Ukraine or its Western partners, who were pursuing a policy of NATO expansion linked to the resolution of the Donbass/Crimea crises through military means.
> 
> Game Changer, Not Game Winner
> 
> The reaction of the Russian government to the failure on the part of the Russian military to defeat Ukraine in the opening phases of the conflict provides important insight into the mindset of the Russian leadership regarding its goals and objectives.
> 
> Denied a decisive victory, the Russians seemed prepared to accept an outcome which limited Russian territorial gains to the Donbass and Crimea and an agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO. Indeed, Russia and Ukraine were on the cusp of formalizing an agreement along these lines in negotiations scheduled to take place in Istanbul in early April 2022.
> 
> This negotiation, however, was scuttled following the intervention of then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson <https://scheerpost.com/2022/09/01/report-russia-ukraine-tentatively-agreed-on-peace-deal-in-april/>, who linked the continued provision of military assistance to Ukraine to the willingness of Ukraine to force a conclusion to the conflict on the battlefield, as opposed to negotiations. Johnson?s intervention was motivated by an assessment on the part of NATO that the initial Russian military failures were indicative of Russian weakness.
> 
> The mood in NATO, reflected in the public statements of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg <https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_208037.htm> (?If [Russian President Vladimir] Putin wins, that is not only a big defeat for the Ukrainians, but it will be the defeat, and dangerous, for all of us?) and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin <https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10751233/We-want-Russia-weakened-Defense-Secretary-Lloyd-Austin-says.html> (?We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can?t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine?) was to use the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as a proxy war designed to weaken Russia to the point that it would never again seek to undertake a Ukraine-like military adventure. [Coupled with an ill-fated economic war, it was also designed to bring down the Russian government, as President Joe Biden admitted last spring.]
> 
> This policy served as the impetus for the injection of what would amount to well over $100 billion worth of assistance, including tens of billions of dollars of advanced military equipment, to Ukraine.
> 
> This massive infusion of aid was a game-changing event <https://www.ustourofduty.org/blog/the-ritter-sitcheroo-imbroglio-part-two-big-arrow-war>, allowing Ukraine to transition from a primarily defensive posture to one that saw a reconstituted Ukrainian military, trained, equipped and organized to NATO standards, launching large-scale counterattacks that succeeded in driving Russian forces from large swaths of Ukraine. It was not, however, a game winning strategy ? far from it. 
> 
> Military Math
> 
> The impressive Ukrainian military accomplishments that were facilitated through the provision of military aid by NATO came at a huge cost in lives and material. While the exact calculation of casualties suffered by either side is difficult to come by, there is widespread acknowledgement, even among the Ukrainian government, that Ukrainian losses have been heavy <https://www.eurasiareview.com/02122022-eu-commission-chief-in-hot-water-over-ukraine-war-loss-estimates/>.
> 
> With the battle-lines currently stabilized, the question of where the war goes from here comes down to basic military math ? in short, a causal relationship between two basic equations revolving around burn rates (how quickly losses are sustained) versus replenishment rates (how quickly such losses can be replaced.) The calculus bodes ill for Ukraine.
> 
> Neither NATO nor the United States appear able to sustain the quantity of weapons that have been delivered to Ukraine, which enabled the successful fall counteroffensives against the Russians.
> 
> This equipment has largely been destroyed, and despite Ukraine?s insistence on its need for more tanks, armored fighting vehicles, artillery and air defense, and while new military aid appears to be forthcoming <https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3260464/ukraine-troops-to-get-bradley-fighting-vehicles/>, it will be late to the battle and in insufficient quantities to have a game-winning impact on the battlefield.
> 
> Likewise, the casualty rates sustained by Ukraine, which at times reach more than 1,000 men per day, far exceed its ability to mobilize and train replacements.
> 
> Russia, on the other hand, is in the process of finalizing a mobilization of more than 300,000 men who appear to be equipped with the most advanced weapons systems in the Russian arsenal.
> 
> When these forces arrive in full on the battlefield, sometime by the end of January, Ukraine will have no response. This harsh reality, when coupled with the annexation by Russia of more than 20 percent of Ukraine?s territory and infrastructure damage approaching $1 trillion, bodes ill for the future of Ukraine.
> 
> There is an old Russian saying, ?A Russian harnesses slowly but rides fast.? This appears to be what is transpiring regarding the Russian-Ukraine conflict.
> 
> Both Ukraine and its Western partners are struggling to sustain the conflict they initiated when they rejected a possible peace settlement in April 2022. Russia, after starting off on its back feet, has largely regrouped, and appears poised to resume large-scale offensive operations which neither Ukraine nor its Western partners have an adequate answer for.
> 
> Moreover, given the duplicitous history of the Minsk Accords, it is unlikely Russia can be dissuaded from undertaking its military offensive through diplomacy. As such, 2023 appears to be shaping up as a year of continued violent confrontation leading to a decisive Russian military victory.
> 
> How Russia leverages such a military victory into a sustainable political settlement that manifests itself in regional peace and security is yet to be seen.
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> Scott Ritter
> Scott Ritter is a former U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties, in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD. His most recent book is Disarmament in the Time of Perestroika, published by Clarity Press.
> 
> Author SIte <https://consortiumnews.com/tag/scott-ritter/>
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From carl at newsfromneptune.com  Sun Jan 15 21:19:17 2023
From: carl at newsfromneptune.com (C. G. Estabrook)
Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2023 15:19:17 -0600
Subject: [Peace] Fwd: Matt Taibbi on the Twitter Files
References: <20230115211024.3.4513417cda46186b@mg2.substack.com>
Message-ID: <733D709E-0871-41A9-B97A-EDF790C3255C@newsfromneptune.com>



Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Aaron Mat? from Aaron Mate <mate at substack.com>
> Date: January 15, 2023 at 3:11:17 PM CST
> To: cgestabrook at gmail.com
> Subject: Matt Taibbi on the Twitter Files
> Reply-To: Aaron Mat? from Aaron Mate <reply+1lphlc&692a&&973f4630ba73d8f75f3a3bf753fbd776fc4e1b4a016931a9c44ff866459e15cf at mg1.substack.com>
> 
> ?
> Open in app or online
> Matt Taibbi on the Twitter Files
> An interview with Matt Taibbi on how Democratic operatives and US intelligence officials pressured Twitter to validate Russiagate and censor dissenting voices.
> AARON MAT?
> JAN 15
> 
>  
> 
> 
> 
> CROSS-POST
>  
> Matt Taibbi joins The Grayzone?s Max Blumenthal and Aaron Mat? to discuss his reporting on internal Twitter files exposing US government pressure on the social media giant to validate Russiagate propaganda ? and censor dissenting voices.
> 
> Video:
> 
> 
> Audio:
> 
> 
> 	
> Matt Taibbi on the Twitter files by Pushback with Aaron Mate
> Pushback with Aaron Mate
> Aaron Mate is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
> 
> Upgrade to paid
> 
> To support Aaron Mat??s independent journalism, subscribe here:
> 
> Upgrade to paid
> 
> Give a gift subscription
> 
> Share Aaron Mate
>  
> CROSS-POST
>  
>  
> LIKE
> COMMENT
> SHARE
>  
> ? 2023 Aaron Mat?
> 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 
> Unsubscribe
> 
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From carl at newsfromneptune.com  Mon Jan 16 17:10:47 2023
From: carl at newsfromneptune.com (C. G. Estabrook)
Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2023 11:10:47 -0600
Subject: [Peace] "An Inevitable War"
Message-ID: <EEEBBD96-CF2C-4DBE-AA79-C176FBA8D580@newsfromneptune.com>

http://theislander.eu/

From carl at newsfromneptune.com  Fri Jan 27 22:37:52 2023
From: carl at newsfromneptune.com (C. G. Estabrook)
Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2023 16:37:52 -0600
Subject: [Peace] Biden admin. in an intelligence vacuum
Message-ID: <E13C5865-09C0-456D-8764-05FD6CC00F02@newsfromneptune.com>

https://original.antiwar.com/Veteran-Intelligence-Professionals-for-Sanity2/2023/01/25/leopards-vs-the-russian-bear/

From carl at newsfromneptune.com  Sat Jan 28 03:36:06 2023
From: carl at newsfromneptune.com (C. G. Estabrook)
Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2023 21:36:06 -0600
Subject: [Peace] Fwd: We can't keep living like this
References: <2F.BC.33486.66874D36@hh.mta2vrest.cc.prd.sparkpost>
Message-ID: <606530BC-FC4B-4854-92E2-89F65120C550@newsfromneptune.com>



Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Barbara Lee <info at barbaraleeforcongress.org>
> Date: January 27, 2023 at 7:20:40 PM CST
> To: cgestabrook at gmail.com
> Subject: We can't keep living like this
> Reply-To: info at barbaraleeforcongress.org
> 
> ?
> 	
> 
> CG:
> 
> Once again, we find ourselves filled with sorrow, outrage and grief. The Memphis police just released the video of Tyre Nichol's killing ? and I'm horrified by the senseless loss of yet another Black man?s life at the hands of law enforcement.
> Mr. Tyre Nichols ? an avid skateboarder, a FedEx worker, a son, a friend, and a father to a 4-year-old boy ? was murdered at the hands of police in Memphis. And today, my heart is broken along with many of yours for his family and loved ones.
> It's truly hard to find words to describe the shocking brutality with which five police officers took Tyre Nichols? life. His pleas and cries tear at our hearts, just as the knowledge that tragedies like this seem to happen again and again and again rattles not only our conscience, but also our understanding of what makes a just and humane society.
> It has only been three years since George Floyd?s life was stolen by our broken and racist law enforcement system in America. The names of Breonna Taylor and Ahmaud Arbery still ring loud in my ears, reminding me of the violence perpetrated against Black and brown communities. We are tired of living in fear. We cannot, and should not, continuously endure this trauma.
> I know it is hard to find the words to meet this moment. It can be even more challenging to know what to do. Yet it is clear that tremendous work must be done to address the injustices in our systems.
> President Biden made progress in repairing the broken system that led to George Floyd?s death with a historic executive order to combat police brutality. But that is not enough. 
> 
> I'm leading the charge to pass the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act in Congress, and I want you to know that I will not rest until our communities are safe from police violence.
> If you're unsure where your representative or senator stands on this pressing issue, please reach out to them now and let them know you support the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.
> There are moments in history that test who we are and what we stand for. There are many ways to struggle for justice. There are many ways to express solidarity. But the first step is to commit to anti-racism and to find how we can contribute, even in small ways, toward racial justice and equality.
> Please take care of yourself and each other during these challenging times.
> 
> In solidarity,
> Barbara Lee
> 
> 	
> Barbara Lee for Congress
> 333 Hegenberger Road
> Suite 369
> Oakland, CA 94621
> 
> BARBARALEEFORCONGRESS.ORG | INFO at BARBARALEEFORCONGRESS.ORG | PRIVACY POLICY
> 
> PAID FOR BY BARBARA LEE FOR CONGRESS
> 
> This email was sent to cgestabrook at gmail.com. If you wish to no longer receive these messages, please unsubscribe: unsubscribe
> 
> 
> 
> 
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