[Peace-discuss] Gen Clark
Dlind49 at aol.com
Dlind49 at aol.com
Thu Oct 10 19:29:02 CDT 2002
A quick war, then lots of trouble
Wesley Clark Los Angeles Times Syndicate International
Wednesday, October 9, 2002
My best scenario
LOS ANGELES My guess is that most of the fighting in Iraq will be over within
two weeks. We may need to prepare 250,000 troops, but many of those won't
even get into the fight. Actual combat troops might number 75,000 to 100,000.
We are going to go in with perhaps 1,000 air and missile strikes the first
night. Ten or fewer of those may miss or misfire and strike Iraqi civilians.
And there may be some military targets that have to be struck that are so
close to civilian housing that some civilians are hit in so-called collateral
damage. Nevertheless, there are unlikely to be that many Iraqi civilian
losses initially.
I would not expect any American casualties in the initial strikes, and
overall, depending on the intensity of the fighting, perhaps a few dozen
casualties.
Now those are my best-scenario expectations. The assumption is that the
Iraqis will not precipitate conflict, and that when the Iraqis experience
that first night of strikes and see the strength of the attacks coming,
resistance will melt away.
The white flags will come out. There will be such an awareness of the
inevitability of defeat by overwhelming American power that as soon as the
Iraqi soldiers realize there is more danger from the front than the rear,
they will find the opportunity to surrender. Saddam's apparatus will come
apart from the bottom up, from the outside in. Our greatest problem in the
fighting is likely to be how to handle hundreds of thousands of deserting and
surrendering soldiers who are armed and hungry.
But then, even under the most optimistic scenarios, the troubles are likely
to begin. Food distribution will break down. Health care will break down.
There will be violence and revenge in the streets as Saddam's secret police
melt away. Despite our efforts to maintain order, there are likely to be
uprisings, as in Basra at the end of the Gulf War. The popular violence will
be widespread and targeted on those associated with Saddam's regime.
The high-end casualty assessment is that Saddam sees us coming as we're
staging in Kuwait. He says, "I've never liked those Shiites anyway," and he
unleashes on them all his biological and chemical stocks, such as anthrax by
the truckload, south of the 33d parallel. When the Americans drive through on
their way to Baghdad, we will ingest all that dust and it will present a high
risk to us. But more importantly it will affect the Iraqi people. And Saddam
will try to say we caused it. Here we are talking about 12 to 14 million
people at risk in southern Iraq. Even if we have our protective suits on, how
are we going to take care of all the sick and dying?
Saddam may also try to use his few remaining Scuds to strike Israel. The
Israelis will shoot back with their anti-missile systems. And we will also be
attacking the Iraqis to neutralize the threat from the Scuds. Still, there is
always the possibility that a Scud loaded with anthrax spores might slip
through and strike Israel. And in that event, say the Israelis, they would
have to respond against Iraq. This is the recipe for tens of thousands of
civilian casualties.
There is some risk of short-term instability in the Middle East. There may be
popular riots early in the campaign. But if the war ends quickly, the impact
will probably be minimal.
Last year, once people on the "Arab street" saw that American forces were
successful in Afghanistan, they abandoned Osama bin Laden and the Taliban.
Once they see that Saddam Hussein is a loser, they will abandon him just as
well.
But there is a long-term risk from a devastating defeat of Saddam that is
extremely dangerous - a deepening of the Arab sense of humiliation across the
region. They will view the American and allied victory as a reimposition of
colonialism. This perception is not helped by those who say we can pay for
the war by taking a million barrels of Iraqi oil a day. That kind of talk
just confirms the mistaken idea that America is doing all this only for oil.
Another danger is that Iraq could become a battleground of fundamentalists.
There is little our American soldiers can do to prevent this - it will depend
on establishing quickly an effective Iraqi government.
This comment by the former supreme allied commander in Europe has been
adapted from an interview conducted by Nathan Gardels for Los Angeles Times
Syndicate International.
Copyright © 2002 The International Herald Tribune
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