[Peace-discuss] bad news

[C. G. Estabrook]

Washington Post - February 2, 2003

Support for a War With Iraq Grows After Bush's Speech

Half the Nation Favors Military Action Without U.N. Backing

By Richard Morin and Claudia Deane

President Bush has reversed the downward drift in public support for war
with Iraq despite widespread fears that the conflict would continue for
many months and produce large numbers of U.S.  casualties, according to a
Washington Post-ABC News poll.

After the president's State of the Union speech on Tuesday in which he
laid out the case for a U.S.-led invasion, the survey found that 66
percent of Americans favor taking military action against Iraq, up from 57
percent two weeks ago and the most support for war since mid-September.

Slightly more than six in 10 Americans also approve of the way Bush is
handling the situation in Iraq; two weeks ago, half the country endorsed
the job that the president was doing. Bush's overall job approval rating
stands at 62 percent, up slightly from mid-January.

And for the first time in Post-ABC News surveys, about half of all
Americans say the United States should take military action even without
the endorsement of the United Nations.

The survey is based on telephone interviews conducted Thursday through
yesterday with 855 randomly selected adults. Margin of sampling error is
plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Support for war is growing even though most Americans are realistic about
the consequences. Two-thirds of those interviewed said they expect
"significant" numbers of U.S. military casualties if the United States
attacks Iraq. Less than one in five -- 19 percent -- believe the conflict
would be over in a "few weeks," while 32 percent say it would probably
last several months, and 45 percent predict that it could continue for a
year or more.

Taken together, nearly four in 10 respondents expected the conflict would
be relatively long and relatively bloody. But even among those who most
fear a high-cost war, a narrow majority -- 52 percent -- still favors
taking military action against Iraq.

Fifty-four percent of the country said the administration has presented
enough evidence to demonstrate the need for military force, up from 48
percent in mid-January. Less than half worry that Bush is moving too fast
to war, down slightly from two weeks ago.

But most Americans -- 57 percent -- would like to see Bush present more
evidence before using force. Two thirds said the United States should be
prepared to offer its own hard evidence to the United Nations to support
an attack. And 52 percent said circumstantial evidence alone isn't enough
to justify taking military action against Iraq.

The administration will have another opportunity to sway public opinion at
home and abroad on Wednesday, when Secretary of State Colin L. Powell is
to present fresh evidence to the U.N. Security Council that Iraqi
President Saddam Hussein is hiding weapons of mass destruction.

The poll suggests that the country has not reached consensus on key
questions regarding a possible invasion.

Half of those interviewed agreed with Bush that the United States should
give U.N. weapons inspectors only a few more weeks to search for chemical,
biological and nuclear weapons in Iraq, while nearly as many are willing
to give them a few months or more before going to war.

About half the country is concerned that a war with Iraq would take money
way from needed programs, but just as many are not concerned about the
war's cost.

Opinions regarding the possible invasion also continue to have a strongly
partisan cast, with Republicans much more likely to support Bush's
aggressive stance, which most Democrats oppose.