[Peace-discuss] CASI

[Dlind49 at aol.com]

Please find below a press release issued by CASI this morning.

Regards,
Seb Wills, CASI


Press release -- 7 January 2003, 07:00 GMT
For Immediate Release

>From the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq (CASI)

For more information contact:
- Nathaniel Hurd at (+1) 917-407-3389 or nathaniel_hurd at hotmail.com;
- Jonathan Stevenson (CASI) on +44 7818 651124.

CONFIDENTIAL UN DOCUMENT PREDICTS HUMANITARIAN EMERGENCY IN EVENT OF WAR
ON IRAQ

A "strictly confidential" UN document, written to assist with UN
contingency planning in the event of war with Iraq, predicts high civilian
injuries, an extension of the existing nutritional crisis, and "the
outbreak of diseases in epidemic if not pandemic proportions." The
existence of the draft document, entitled "Likely Humanitarian Scenarios"
and dated 10th December 2002, was first reported in the Times (London) on
23rd December 2002, but this is the first time it has been made publicly
accessible. It is available at
http://www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/war021210.pdf

The document focuses on the likely humanitarian consequences of a range of
anticipated military scenarios. It estimates that:

- "as many as 500,000 people could require treatment to a greater or
lesser degree as a result of direct or indirect injuries", based upon
World Health Organisation estimates of 100,000 direct and 400,000 indirect
casualties [para 23]. It indicates existing shortages of some medical
items, "rendering the existing stocks inadequate" for war-increased demand
[para 22], and exacerbated by the "likely absence of a functioning primary
health care system in a post-conflict situation" [para 24].

- damage to the electricity network will reduce "water and sanitation as
well as health [sectors]" [para 5]. In the short term "39% of the
population will need to be provided with potable water" [para 28]. The
high number of indirect casualties may be because "the outbreak of
diseases in epidemic if not pandemic proportions is very likely" [para
25].

- "It is estimated that the nutritional status of some 3.03m people
countrywide will be dire and that they will require therapeutic feeding
[according to UNICEF estimates]. This consists of 2.03m severely and
moderately malnourished children under 5 and one million pregnant women"
[para 27]

- "It is estimated that there will eventually be some 900,000 Iraqi
refugees requiring assistance, of which 100,000 will be in need of
immediate assistance, [according to UNHCR]" [para 35]. An estimated 2
million people will require some assistance with shelter [para 33]. For
130,000 existing refugees in Iraq "it is probable that UNHCR will
initially be unable to provide the support required" [para 36]

The document also rejects comparisons with humanitarian outcomes of both
the 2001 Afghanistan and 1991 Gulf conflicts, since the existing
sanctions-induced humanitarian situation in Iraq has produced a population
in which 16 million (60%) "have no other means with which to provide for
other essential requirements" other than monthly government food rations
[para 2,4,11]

Notes for editors:

1) The document is available at
http://www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/war021210.pdf, the website of the
Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq (CASI), a Cambridge-based NGO which
exists to raise awareness of the effects of sanctions on Iraq, and
campaigns on humanitarian grounds for the lifting of non-military
sanctions. CASI does not support or have ties to the government of Iraq.
The document has been obtained by Nathaniel Hurd, Consultant on UN Iraq
policy for the Mennonite Central Committee (MCC) UN Office. He has also
prepared accompanying notes in a personal capacity, at
http://www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/war021210notes.html

2) Please note this UN document is a draft. Estimates and other content
may have since been revised. Additionally, several paragraphs and tables
have been deleted at the request of the individual who released the
document, including the entirety of page 3.

3) CASI's website can be found at www.casi.org.uk, and it can be contacted
by email on info at casi.org.uk.




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