[Peace-discuss] Optimism = Realism = Peace

[patton paul]

Published on Wednesday, January 15, 2003 by CommonDreams.org
For Peace Movement, Optimism = Realism = Peace
by Ira Chernus


Mother nature will not wait for the Bush administration to make up its
mind. She will bring summer to the desert sands of Iraq, right on
schedule. If the Bushies dont start their war by the end of February, it
will be too hot to fight until late next autumn.

Too many of my friends in the peace movement assume that war is
inevitable. In fact, it is far from a done deal.

Last summer, the hawks in the administration clearly had the upper hand.
Since then, they have slowly but steadily lost their grip. For months now,
the president has been backpedaling, in the face of a world-wide wall of
opposition to war that just wont budge. Even George W. no longer believes
that America can do whatever it damn pleases.

In Britain, organizers of the world-wide demonstrations on February 15
expect up to a million people to fill Trafalgar Square. This week, the
German Green Party came out against war. That forced the German government
to demand a second Security Council resolution before war can begin. The
French and Russians remain sympathetic to that view. The five new members
who just joined the Security Council are less likely than the old members
to vote for war. Kofi Annan added another warning to his continuing string
of cautionary statements.

At the same time, the administration revealed its obvious double standard
by agreeing to negotiate with North Korea (as long as it isnt called
negotiation). Bush pulled the rug out from under his own stated principle
of going after dictators with weapons of mass destruction. That makes all
his arguments for war with Iraq even less believable. It gives all those
nations intent on blocking the path to war more reason to stand firm.

In light of all this, it is no coincidence that the White House now says
January 27 is not a drop-dead deadline. Theres still plenty of wiggle
room.

The man who may cast the deciding vote is the administration's political
strategist and vote-counter-in-chief, Karl Rove. He reads the polls. One
number has not changed in months: two-thirds or more of U.S. voters will
support a war only if its waged by an international coalition under UN
auspices -- a coalition that just is not there. If we go into war alone,
and the war drags on with any sizeable number of U.S. casualties, Rove
might suffer the only casualty he really cares about: losing the 2004
election.

Ill bet that every night Rove communes with the ghost of Bush past, George
the First, vintage 1992. Rove knows how fast a war president can lose
popularity. He also knows how slim the Republican victory was last fall.
If a mere 20,000 voters in key states around the country had voted
Democrat instead of Republican, the Dems would now control the Senate. So
Rove is shining a big yellow caution light over the White House.

Those of us who want to stop the war have good reason to be optimistic.
Weve built the biggest peace movement in over thirty years. Why, then, do
so many of us go around telling each other that Bush will go to war, no
matter what? Do we want to feel like powerless victims? Do we get some
perverse masochistic pleasure from it?

I suspect that, more than anything else, we are just preparing for another
disappointment. When you work for peace, its easy to feel that your work
is in vain. People remember all the wars that happened. They quickly
forget the ones that could have happened but didnt. So peace activists can
easily see themselves as permanent losers. Psychologically, it makes sense
to cushion the next loss by preparing for it in advance.

Politically, though, it makes no sense at all. Pessimism is a
self-fulfilling prophecy. It saps our energy, just when we need energy the
most, just when we are on the verge of stopping this war before it starts.
So lets cut out all the doomsaying. Lets be realists and face the facts.
Lets start telling each other that we can stop this war. Lets believe it,
because it is true. That will give us the one last burst of energy we need
to bring peace before summer comes to the desert sands.

Ira Chernus is Professor of Religious Studies at the University of
Colorado at Boulder. chernus at spot.colorado.edu