[Peace-discuss] Sense reaches even CNN

[C. G. Estabrook]

[Note that we have here conservative pundit Bob Novak saying, "The last
thing that the hawks inside the administration, and their friends outside
the administration, want is a coup d'etat that would replace Saddam
Hussein.  They want a war as a manifestation of U.S. power in the world
and as a sign that the United States is capable of changing the balance of
power and the political map of the Middle East." --CGE]


CNN CAPITAL GANG

Aired January 18, 2003 - 19:00   ET

ANNOUNCER: Live from Washington, THE CAPITAL GANG.

MARK SHIELDS, HOST: Welcome to THE CAPITAL GANG. I'm Mark Shields with the
full GANG, that's Al Hunt, Robert Novak, Kate O'Beirne, and Margaret
Carlson.

U.N. weapons inspectors discovered 11 empty chemical weapons warheads in a
bunker near Baghdad.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIPS)

ARI FLEISCHER, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: The fact that Iraq is in
possession of undeclared chemical warheads, which the United Nations says
are in excellent condition, is and of itself a serious and troubling
matter.

GEN. HOSSAM AMIN, IRAQI MONITORING DIRECTOR: It is expired rockets, and
they were for weapons without any intention to use them, because they were
expired since 10 years ago.

(END VIDEO CLIPS)

SHIELDS: The U.N. weapons inspectors said this was no smoking gun, but
nevertheless criticized Iraq's lack of cooperation.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HANS BLIX, CHIEF U.N. WEAPONS INSPECTOR: A lot has been destroyed, perhaps
more than during the Gulf War. However, there is not yet confidence, there
is not yet certainty that all the chemical, biological weapons and
missiles are gone.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SHIELDS: President Bush and Saddam Hussein both issued threats.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The evidence hasn't been
very good that he is disarming. And time is running out. At some point in
time, the United States' patience will run out.

SADDAM HUSSEIN, PRESIDENT OF IRAQ (through translator): Everyone in
(UNINTELLIGIBLE), the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) intent and action has settled down,
will commit suicide at the walls of Baghdad and the Iraqi towns.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SHIELDS: Bob Novak, on a day when thousands rallied against U.S. military
action, do people in favor of war have legitimate reason, given these
warheads?

ROBERT NOVAK, CAPITAL GANG: I can't imagine that anybody would say, We're
going to war because there are 11 empty warheads, probably left over from
10 years ago. These warheads are not the nuclear weapons we've been warned
about. They travel about 12 miles.

But this is being used as a pretext for a decision that's already been
made at high levels of the U.S. government to change the government in
Iraq. It has nothing to do with, boy, we're -- we are really worried about
these little chemical warheads that's going to cause a holocaust in the
Middle East.

Most disturbing thing is that Secretary of State Powell, a lot of people
were relying on to keep some sanity, played the good soldier this week and
said that at the end of the month, there would be more evidence. If
there's more, if there's evidence, why not put it out now?

SHIELDS: Kate O'Beirne, in the eyes of the Bush administration, is Iraq
guilty until proven innocent?

KATE O'BEIRNE, CAPITAL GANG: No, I think in the eyes of the Bush
administration, they've never thought that Saddam Hussein is going to be
disarmed through inspections, which is why I -- this is not these 11 or 12
empty warheads are not a smoking gun. If they were particularly menacing,
inspectors never would have found them. The really menacing stuff has been
long since hidden.

The inspectors aren't really looking for a smoking gun. That's not what
they're supposed to be doing there. They're supposed to be confirming that
a cooperating state has disarmed. Saddam Hussein is not disarming. False
declaration in December, he's already in material breach.

SHIELDS: Margaret Carlson.

MARGARET CARLSON, CAPITAL GANG: You know, what was interesting about Colin
Powell is, it reminds those of us who wonder if the war is a good idea, a
war that seems to have been decided upon, whether, at the base of every
hawk's desire to go to war is that Bush has the goods and we just haven't
seen it. And has Colin Powell this week been shown what Tony Blair has
perhaps seen, and what Bush knows to exist, which is weapons of mass
destruction that Saddam Hussein has and is capable of using?

That's what I wonder, because I -- you know, we haven't seen it yet. And
what we have here is perhaps a clerical material breach, which is, you
know, Saddam Hussein didn't say he had these. And Hans Blix doesn't think
it's enough, I don't think the Security Council. And I wouldn't have
thought Colin Powell, simply being a good soldier, would have thought it
was enough.

SHIELDS: Al Hunt, do you think the Bush administration is looking for a
smoking gun, or is it just looking for sort of a, you know, a deception
and pattern of deception that they can then cite?

AL HUNT, CAPITAL GANG: Well, both. I mean, as Kate suggested, the Iraqis
agreed in 1991 to disarm, so really they -- in that sense, they have to
prove themselves innocent. I mean, that is true, the burden of proof is on
them.

I don't think the Powell-Cheney -- I think increasingly bitter feud has
really played itself out yet, Bob. I don't -- I still think Powell wants
to go through more international approval of this, you know, before we go
into any regime change. And that there's still more to be played out
there. And that is an increasingly bitter disagreement.

The other thing that was fascinating this week was that "TIME" magazine
and others reported that the Saudis and the Egyptians and others are
talking about a coup against Saddam, or getting him to leave. Now, that
says two things. That says, number one, that they think there is a
probability of war. But it also says, Mark, that it's a war they're scared
stiff as to what it's going to mean for them after it's all over.

NOVAK: That's exactly right. But the last thing that the hawks inside the
administration, and their friends outside the administration, want is a
coup d'etat that would replace Saddam Hussein. They want a war as a
manifestation of U.S. power in the world and as a sign that the United
States is capable of changing the balance of power and the political map
of the Middle East.

There's no question that the last thing they want is Saddam Hussein put on
a plane and taken...

O'BEIRNE: Bob, Bob, speaking...

NOVAK: ... to -- taken away.

O'BEIRNE: ... speaking, speaking for this hawk, I want to see a regime in
Baghdad that would not be armed with weapons of mass destruction. That
might not happen through a coup. If that could happen through a coup, you
could avoid war.

SHIELDS: But Bob, that's a pretty serious charge (UNINTELLIGIBLE). You're
saying that there are people, I mean, who almost have a blood lust in this
administration.

NOVAK: Listen, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) don't (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

SHIELDS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE), you're saying they want war.

NOVAK: All right. Talking to a senior official, and he said to me, he
said, Well, if we don't hit in Iraq, where are we going to hit? And they
-- it's a desire that the United States, the superpower, is going to
manifest its authority to the rest of the world.

Listen, I just feel that this potential -- this war, I just trust it comes
off easily. But I have trepidation that it won't be easy, and there's
going to be a terrible consequences from it.

HUNT: Well, my fear is...

CARLSON: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HUNT: ... not that the war itself won't be easy. It may be harder than we
think. But, I mean, I think it's -- you -- one can make the assumption
that it may be relatively easy. But that's the easy part, because the
aftermath is what I think is what concerns the...

SHIELDS: I agree with you, Al, but I, you know, the wonderful thing, the
first thing about war is, all assumptions go out the door and out the
window. I mean, they really -- plans in war don't work out. I mean...

HUNT: Well, pundits always do the last war, and '91 was easy, so therefore
the assumption is this time's going to be.

SHIELDS: That...

HUNT: One thing, it's a guarantee, it won't be like '91.

SHIELDS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

HUNT: Never.

SHIELDS: ... Margaret, these 11 empty chemical warheads represent no
threat to the United States territory in any way...

NOVAK: Or to anybody.

SHIELDS: ... right?

CARLSON: I mean, Hans Blix is...

O'BEIRNE: Nobody's using them as hot checks (ph).

CARLSON: But, but -- well, but Bush said it was serious and troubling, and
Hans Blix says, Huh-uh. And no one in the Security Council thinks it's a
serious -- serious and troubling.

O'BEIRNE: President Bush said the entire...

CARLSON: Now, when Powell said...

O'BEIRNE: ... (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

CARLSON: ... at the end, We will have cause by the end of the month, I'm
wondering, is it 20 warheads, empty warheads? What is it? We don't know.
But it does make me think that, as Bob says, war is what is wanted.
SHIELDS: Kate O'Beirne, is there anything that the Iraqi regime could do
to appease you and convince you there shouldn't be a war?

NOVAK: And just, if I could, before you answer, that's what the Iraqis
want to know on back channel communications.

O'BEIRNE: Oh, please!

NOVAK: They do, they really do.

O'BEIRNE: They know, they have known since 1991 what the international
community is asking for. And since 1991, he's refused to do it. He full
well -- he knows full well what he has to do, disarm, voluntarily disarm.
And the kind of false report he issued in December shows he has no
intention of doing so.

NOVAK: Don't you think if he has to disarm, it obliges the United States
and the international community to show what he has to disarm, that he has
these things? And what -- and it's just not...

O'BEIRNE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

NOVAK: ... an imaginary...

O'BEIRNE: ... as, as, as Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld has pointed out,
the whole world knows he has these things, Bob. Any country with an
intelligence service knows he has the...

CARLSON: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

O'BEIRNE: Bob, he's used these things.

SHIELDS: I'd just say in closing, saw the president for the first time
this week fall under 60 percent in approval polls. He has not made the
case to the American people...