[Peace-discuss] News notes 030706

[C. G. Estabrook]

	Notes on the week's news from the "War on Terrorism"
	 -- for the AWARE meeting, Sunday, July 6, 2003

[Many of these notes are taken from Slate's "Today's Papers"; see
<slate.msn.com>.]

****Remember, when the Reagan administration first declared "war on
terrorism" twenty years ago, the U.S. army manual defined terrorism as the
"calculated use of violence or the threat of violence to attain goals that
are political, religious or ideological in nature."  The problem is that
that also describes U.S. foreign policy, then and now.****

1. LITERAL BOMBS

The Sunday papers lead with a bomb attack upon Iraq's new American-trained
police force that left at least seven dead and injured as many as 70. It
came just one day after the release of an audio message linked to Saddam
Hussein urged Iraqis to punish anyone cooperating with American and
British forces. The NYT reports that the day before the explosion, Iraqis
in the area had warned that a large attack was in the works for the
weekend.

On Saturday there were two assaults on the US in central Iraq, a mortar
attack on an airfield that wounded at least 17 soldiers, and a failed
attempt by a band of 50 guerrilla fighters to destroy a convoy from the
3rd Infantry Division left no troops dead but aroused fears of more
sophisticated coordination among Iraqi insurgent groups. The WP emphasizes
the surprising size of the Iraqi force, citing an anonymous U.S. official
who worried that "a group of 50 suggests a degree of organization we
haven't seen before."

On Friday there was a massive suicide bombing at a Shiite Muslim mosque in
the Pakistani city of Quetta. The attack, which killed at least 30 and as
many as 50 people, was attributed by most sources to militant Sunni Muslim
sectarians.

On Thursday one American soldier was killed and 20 others wounded. "We're
still at war," an Army general declares in the NYT, two months after Bush
said that major combat was finished. "The multiple attacks came a day
after Mr. Bush seemingly invited confrontation with militant Iraqis,
saying, 'Bring 'em on.' The American-led alliance, he said, has adequate
force to deal with the security situation. Thursday's attacks seemed to
defy that assertion." [NYT 0703] The capture—or death—of Saddam may
not quell the attacks, according to the Times. Thursday's incidents
occurred in diverse areas, carried out by some who supported the former
government and some who did not. The NYT briefly mentions that the total
number of attacks is actually "considerably higher" than the number
released by the military: "Though often willing to confirm attacks when
asked about them, Army officers rarely announce incidents that do not
result in American casualties." The AP recently mentioned that the
Pentagon's press office has had a tough time keeping up with the number of
attacks.

On Tuesday, four Iraqis were killed by GIs at checkpoints. It's not clear
what happened yet. But the Times says, "Soldiers have become more willing
to shoot first and ask questions later." [NYT 0702] There's an ongoing
sweep by U.S. forces in Iraq, dubbed Operation Sidewinder: GIs have now
detained 180 people, including a former Iraqi colonel.

Last Sunday there was a car explosion in central Baghdad, seriously
wounding at least four soldiers. On the same day, the country's leading
Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, widely considered a
moderate, issued a fatwa demanding general elections and opposing the
U.S.'s plans to unilaterally name a national council. U.S. forces arrested
the American-appointed governor of Najaf, saying he's been involved in
kidnappings and shakedowns. About 25 Iraqis, probably looters, were killed
when scavengers rooting through an ammo dump apparently set off some
ordnance. And a GI was lightly injured in a grenade attack.

The week began with a series of raids in Iraq by U.S. forces -- more than
20 -- trying to smash the growing guerrilla campaign. "We want to send a
message: 'don't mess with us,'" said one American officer. It's not a
helpful message, Iraqi police officers told the Post. "No one is happy
with the Americans, no one in this entire area," said one cop in the
so-called Sunni Triangle, where the raids were concentrated. "They are
occupiers, and they act as occupiers. It's a military force and we don't
want to have any relations with them." The NYT suggests that the ongoing
raids haven't been particularly productive.

Rumsfeld said "If you want to call [it] a quagmire, do it. I don't."  He
also said that the attackers aren't guerrillas, "they are functioning much
more like terrorists." One reporter at the Pentagon briefing looked up the
military's own definition of guerrilla warfare, which is, "Military and
paramilitary operations conducted in enemy-held or hostile territory by
irregular, predominantly indigenous forces." The reporter added, "That
seems to fit a lot of what's going on in Iraq." Rumsfeld responded, "It
really doesn't" -- which according to the transcript was followed by
"laughter."

A double suicide bombing outside a Moscow rock festival that killed at
least 16 people, including two female bombers. It was the first major
terrorist strike in Moscow since Chechen rebels stormed a theater last
fall taking 900 people hostage.

2. METAPHORICAL BOMBS

Bush leaves tomorrow on a six-day, five-country tour of Africa. An African
NGO official claims the U.S. only helps oil rich nations, regardless of
their human rights records, and accuses the president of avoiding "the
continent's worst trouble spots."

An envoy sent by the CIA to Africa to investigate allegations about Iraq's
nuclear weapons program contends the Bush administration manipulated his
findings, possibly to strengthen the rationale for war. That conclusion
came on Sunday from Joseph Wilson, former U.S. ambassador to the West
African nation of Gabon, who was dispatched in February 2002 to explore
whether Iraq tried to buy uranium from Niger. That desert country is the
world's third-largest producer of mined uranium. Writing in a New York
Times op-ed piece, Wilson said it did not take him long "to conclude that
it was highly doubtful that any such transaction had ever taken place." In
an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press," Wilson insisted his doubts about
the purported Iraq-Niger connection reached the highest levels of
government, including Vice President Dick Cheney's office.

Liberian President Charles Taylor, who used to drive a cab in Bostin,
again offered to leave once peacekeepers enter his country,while the U.S.
military plans to increase counterterror forces in countries such as
Morocco and Tunisia. The Pentagon however opposes sending any troops to
Liberia, while the State Department favors it.

3. BOMBS TO COME

Six Guantanamo prisoners have been chosen -- the papers say by Bush
himself -- for trial before a U.S. military tribunal.  The fate of the six
detainees picked out by Bush will now be determined by Paul Wolfowitz,
according to the Post lead. He'll decide what they'll be charged with, and
he'll also appoint the members of the tribunal itself. [WP 0704] The six
prisoners (of more than 680) include two Britons and one Australian. [BBC
0706] They will be given a choice: plead guilty and accept a 20-year
prison sentence, or be executed if found guilty. American legal sources
close to the process said that the prisoners' dilemma was intended to
encourage maximum 'co-operation'. [GUARDIAN 0706]

Rep. Jim McDermott says that in addition to building up the U.S. military
presence in the Middle East, the Bush administration, "is upping the
psychological ante here at home... The deputies of the Bush Terror Posse
-- Donald Rumsfeld, Tom Ridge and John Ashcroft -- are conducting a
deliberate campaign to frighten us."

The NYT reports inside that American forces detained 11 Turkish soldiers
after storming a compound in northern Iraq. While the facts remain
sketchy, according to a leading Turkish newspaper the soldiers had been
plotting to assassinate a Kurdish governor when they were apprehended.

Karl Rove has found his favorite 2004 presidential candidate: Howard Dean.
Bush's political adviser apparently believes that it would serve the
president best to have the former Vermont governor as his main opponent in
next year's election. So, to drum up support, Rove spent most of
Independence Day facetiously hanging around a tiny Dean rally, shouting
exhortations such as "Come on, everybody! Go, Howard Dean!"

The Post says the administration's appeal to get other countries to send
troops to Iraq isn't going well. Of 70 countries asked to contribute, so
far 10 have agreed to pitch in. And that's a problem, because with fully
half the Army in Iraq, and other large numbers in Afghanistan, Korea, and
elsewhere, the Pentagon "at the moment has no troops to replace many of
those on extended deployments in Iraq."

The Asia Times Syed Saleem Shahzad says that the U.S. and its allies have
failed to break the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, where the
resistance movement "has fully re-organized itself, even setting up
offices... And, efforts to accommodate the Taliban notwithstanding, the
U.S. has little idea what is going on."

The Israeli-Palestinian cease-fire announced last weekend is supposed to
include the halting of Israeli assassinations and Israel's release of "all
Palestinian and Arab prisoners"  (Israel holds 6-10,000 people.)  Hamas
and Islamic Jihad said they'll cease strikes for three months, the al-Aqsa
Martyrs Brigades, for six. The NYT and LAT both notice that Israel troops
withdrawing from northern Gaza left, as the NYT puts it, "a trampled
landscape of uprooted orange orchards, smashed sewer lines and demolished
houses." The LAT and NYT also both notice that National Security Adviser
Condoleezza Rice criticized the construction of a security fence around
the West Bank, which at points cuts deeply into Palestinian territory. She
suggested it amounts to a unilateral border.

Israeli troops handed control of Bethlehem over to Palestinian forces,
though they kept a cordon around the city and according to the Post
actually tightened it. As the Wall Street Journal notes, the pullout
didn't involve "any major redeployment of troops," since Israeli soldiers
only went into Bethlehem itself to patrol and conduct raids.

The CIA believes that North Korea is working on miniaturizing its coming
nukes to fit onto ballistic missiles. But the NYT doesn't quote any intel
officials. Instead it relies on "officials who have received the
intelligence reports" -- which sounds like the White House.

4. POLLS

In a new poll 71 percent of respondents said they "believe that the Bush
administration implied that Hussein was involved in the Sept. 11, 2001,
attacks."

In a poll by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA), 52% of
respondents said they believe the U.S. found evidence that Iraq was
working closely with al-Qaeda, while 23% believe the U.S. found WMD in
Iraq, down from 34% in a previous PIPA poll.  President Bush's recent
claim is that looters stole Saddam's weapons.

Only 56 percent of Americans view the current fighting as going well in
Iraq, according to a new CNN/USA Today Gallup poll. That is much lower
than the 70 percent in late May and the 86 percent in early May who
thought the fighting was going well ...  Although the percentage of those
who believe going to war in Iraq was worthwhile has fallen to 56 percent
from 73 percent in April, more than two-thirds believe having U.S. troops
in Iraq now is worthwhile. [Q: Would it matter to you if Bush did mislead
the public on Iraqi weapons? Great Deal: 53% / Moderate Amount: 22% / Not
Much: 11% / Not At All: 11%] The number of respondents who believe Bush
did lie about WMD has risen to 37% from 31% since early June. Meanwhile,
the number who are "very confident" the U.S. will eventually find those
same WMDs has fallen from 52% in March to just 22% now.

  ==============================================================
  C. G. Estabrook, Ph.D., Visiting Scholar
  University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [MC-190]
  109 Observatory, 901 South Mathews Avenue, Urbana IL 61801 USA
  office: 217.244.4105 mobile: 217.369.5471 home: 217.359.9466
  <www.carlforcongress.org>
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