[Peace-discuss] Turkey

[Dlind49 at aol.com]

March 2, 2003
Troop Vote Strains U.S. - Turkish Relations
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

 
Filed at 2:53 p.m. ET

ISTANBUL, Turkey (AP) -- A top member of Turkey's governing party on Sunday 
rejected a quick new vote on letting U.S. troops use the country to open a 
northern front against Iraq -- a second harsh blow to U.S. war planners in as 
many days.

After a revolt in its ranks Saturday, the Islamic-rooted ruling party is in 
disarray, torn between popular opposition to war and fears of possible 
lasting damage to the historically close ties with Washington.

``Trust between the United States and Turkey is in breakdown,'' said Huseyin 
Bagci, professor of International Relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical 
University. ``The decision is good for Turkey's democracy, but bad for the 
U.S.-Turkish strategic relationship.''

Eyup Fatsa, deputy head of the governing party's parliamentary group, said 
there would be no quick revote after Turkey's parliament Saturday failed to 
approve a government-backed motion to allow 62,000 U.S. combat troops in the 
country for a possible war against neighboring Iraq. The move was rejected 
despite the party's overwhelming majority in parliament.

The decision stunned Washington and seriously jeopardizes U.S. planning for a 
northern front against Iraq, a crucial part of the American war strategy.

The ruling Justice and Development Party had also placed its prestige on the 
line, with leaders pressing legislators to vote for the motion. But almost 
100 of the party's 362 legislators defected, raising the possibility of 
disunity and political instability as the United States prepares for a war in 
neighboring Iraq.

``The proposal has been delayed to an open-ended time. There is no proposal 
for the foreseeable future,'' Fatsa told reporters at a Justice party meeting 
Sunday on whether to resubmit the motion to parliament, which next convenes 
on Tuesday.

It is not clear why the government was delaying a new vote.

Some legislators may fear that pushing forward with a vote could split the 
party between hardline factions that oppose the war and the more pragmatic 
legislators who believe that not supporting Washington could have devastating 
consequences for Turkey's economy.

The Justice party, which is rooted in Turkey's Islamic movement, unites 
factions that are more traditional and religious with a more pragmatic group.

The impact on Turkey's economy could be swift.

``There could be a mini-crisis Monday morning when markets reopen,'' warned 
Bulent Aliriza, director of the Turkey project at the Washington-based Center 
for Strategic and International Studies.

Washington had been offering Turkey $15 billion in loans and grants to help 
cushion the Turkish economy if there is a war. The critical economic pad 
could be lost now, although neither side has discussed the future publicly.

Ships carrying equipment and some of the 62,000 U.S. troops who would be 
based in Turkey are already off the Turkish coast, a sign of how sure 
Washington was of Turkish support.

For the United States, parliament's failure allow deployment of the troops 
leaves in question the U.S. war strategy, which called for a northern front 
against Iraq to divide Saddam Hussein's forces.

For Turkey, in addition to the possible loss of a huge tranche of U.S. funds, 
Ankara could lose a say in the future of neighboring Iraq if there is a war. 
That is a critical issue for the Turks, who fear that a war could lead Kurds 
in northern Iraq to declare an independent state and in turn inspire Turkey's 
own Kurdish minority.

Turkey is also likely to lose the U.S. goodwill that Ankara had counted on to 
help lobby European nations in its bid for membership in the European Union. 
Also at stake is U.S. backing with the International Monetary Fund.

Turkish leaders Sunday sought to downplay such concerns, emphasizing instead 
the strength of ties between the five-decade-long NATO allies.

``We will continue these relations with mutual friendship and mutual 
understanding. These (relations) shouldn't be bound to a motion,'' Prime 
Minister Abdullah Gul said.

Justice Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan also sought to ease concerns that a 
crisis was brewing within the governing party. Among the dissenters in 
Saturday's vote was Deputy Prime Minister Ertugrul Yalcinbayir.

``By our party not taking a group decision on this critical issue, we carried 
out democracy within the party,'' Erdogan said.