[Peace-discuss] Hussein Kamal UNSCOM/IAEA transcript

[Margaret E. Kosal]

Peace-discuss folks -

Another group queried my analysis on the Hussein Kamal (Dubya et al's 
favorite Iraqi defector/Saddam Hussein's son-in-law) transcript which was 
initially mentioned in Newsweek and suqsequently obtained and posted to the 
web by Glen Rangwala, Cambridge.

Of potential interest to the folx here.

Margaret

>Date: Mon, 17 Mar 2003 13:23:59 -0600
>From: "Margaret E. Kosal" <nerdgirl at scs.uiuc.edu>
>Subject: Hussein Kamal UNSCOM/IAEA transcript
>
>First, analysis of the 15-page (edited) transcript 
>(http://www.casi.org.uk/info/unscom950822.pdf) doesn't need *any* 
>particular technical training :-)
>
>Conclusion:
>It is cursory and non-specific.  It's very 'squishy' ... there are lots of 
>aspects on which i could more creatively speculate, but i would not use 
>this document as a basis to build a case in any direction, other than to 
>further support the continuation of and increase in weapons' inspection.
>
>More detailed analysis:
>It's heavy on logistical info - where stuff is or was and who was working 
>on what, rather than technical detail.
>
>In general, it confirms what was known or suspected by IAEA and UNSCOM 
>rather than containing revelations.  A typical exchange has Prof. M. 
>Zifferero (IAEA) or N. Smidovich (UNSCOM) pose a question to which Kamal 
>would respond affirmatively or negatively and provides more info.  This 
>does not, to me, make him quite the revelatory source that Rumsfeld, et al 
>like to *use* him as.
>
>The 15 page transcript breaks down:
>pp.1-5 nuclear
>pp.6-7 biological weapons (BW)
>pp. 8-12 missile development and acquisition
>pp. 13-14 1/2  chemical weapons (CW)
>pp. 14.5 - 15 conclusions and final comments by Kamal
>
>Kamal is not technically trained, e.g., when asked if a certain BW agents 
>were "mycotoxins?", Kamal responds "I don't remember medical 
>terms."  Mycotoxin is a microbiological term, refers to toxins generated 
>by fungi.
>
>A German company, Interatom, is indicated in helping with pre-Gulf War 
>Iraqi attempts to build centrifuge to enrich uranium.  Kamal indicts the 
>French for supplying weapons grade uranium (>90% highly enriched) and the 
>Russians for supplying uranium enriched to 80% (U-238) ... too low an 
>enrichment by typical weapons needs.
>
>Kamal does indicate Iraqi nuclear weapons program was trying to make their 
>own HEU and trying to build a functional nuclear device "but they never 
>reached a point close to testing."
>
>W/r/t weapons inspection, BW specifically, Kamal states "You have 
>important role in Iraq with this.  You should not underestimate 
>yourself.  You are very effective in Iraq."  That statement is another one 
>of Kamal's that Bush, et al never seem to remember to cite!  Kamal goes on 
>to indicate that BW agents were destroyed before UNSCOM arrived in Iraq 
>and that "the place where they buried them was found by you [UNSCOM]."
>
>When asked about Iraq's VX program, Kamal indicates "During the Gulf War, 
>there was no intention to use chemical weapons as the Allied force was 
>overwhelming.  They finished work on binary [nerve agent, insert by mek 
>not in original transcript] that had a long shelf life."  .... "Sarin had 
>a short life."
>
>Binary weapons are relatively nontoxic intermediates that can be stored 
>separately and are usually not placed in proximity to one another until 
>just before use.
>
>Kamal is asked if VX was successfully stabilized.  He responds "they were 
>able to do it by splitting VX into binary.  Bombs consisted of two parts 
>and they made it during the last days of the Iran-Iraq war.  ... After the 
>Iran-Iraq war, the factory was turned into civilian production," which 
>would end Iraqi ability to produce more of  VX pre-cursors.  Neither, the 
>Iraqis nor the Russians were ever very good at getting pure VX anyway, the 
>last part (distillation) is difficult; the US otoh ...
>
>Another quote ignored by Bush regime:  "Some of the chemical components 
>came from US to Iraq.  Even Iran bought some components from the US but 
>when they arrived, the Iranians discovered they were water."
>
>For those who question the origin of the CW agents used against the Kurds 
>in Halabja, Kamal volunteers " Iran also had mustard and sarin and they 
>used mustard in small quantities."
>
>Toward the end of the discussion w/r/t CW agents, Kamal states "All 
>chemical weapons were destroyed.  I ordered destruction of all chemical 
>weapons.  All weapons - biological, chemical, missile, nuclear were 
>destroyed."
>
>My analysis is that the (edited) transcript is not a smoking gun ... for 
>anyone's agenda.  It's more an outside confirmation.
>The largest portion of the transcript and the most detailed account is 
>given in the section on missile development and acquisition, second on 
>uranium enrichment & nuclear weapons development.  i want to know what 
>more Kamal had to say because the web-posted transcript is cursory and 
>non-specific.  Again, it's very 'squishy' ... there are lots of aspects on 
>which i could more creatively speculate, but i would not use this document 
>as a basis to build a case in any direction, other than to further support 
>the continuation of and increase in weapons' inspection.
>
>Namaste,
>Margaret