[Peace-discuss] rumors

[Chas. 'Mark' Bee]

C. G. Estabrook wrote:

>There may have been a decision that the current situation can't go on, and
>the only thing to do is escalate, because (as our liberal Democratic
>candidate for Congress said the other night), " We can't just pull out."
>
>Why not?  --CGE
>

    I dunno, maybe fifty thousand more civilian deaths in the next 6 
months?  I keep hearing people voice this desire, but so far I haven't 
really followed the reasoning, number-of-dead-kids-wise.  So to avoid 
raising folks' hackles with a bunch of ill-informed armchair preaching, 
I propose a thought experiment.  Let's say all the troops were pulled 
out in a timely fashion, starting now.  I'm interested in what folks 
here think would happen to the Iraqi civilians next.

   Here's my own personal, sketchy, not-quite-worst-case timeline, just 
off the top of my head so you know where I'm coming from (lucky you, eh?):

   24 hours:  Attempted lockdown of roads leading to large tracts of 
Iraq by 'warlords' (actually, whoever has the weapons); seizure and/or 
looting of foodstuffs and medical supplies, closure of (and later, 
possible siege of) many hospitals.  Possible move for reinstatement of 
economic sanctions by US or UN.

   48 hours:  Establishment of first local Sharia courts; persecution, 
torture, execution of collaborators begins.  Formation of local 
militias.  Surge in vigilate activity among populace.

   72-96 hours: Troop movements in Iran and Syria, possible experimental 
border incursions, don't know what Kurds and Turks would do, but 
whatever it is, they'd probably be cranking up by this time as well.  
Starvation, dehydration and cholera deaths begin to rise, medical care 
becoming nearly unobtainable.

   1-3 weeks:  Individual members of US-selected Iraqi council, 'new 
police', and other collaborators run to ground and executed.  Religious 
police, 'official' and/or self-appointed, appear on streetcorners and 
etc.  Surge in civilian deaths from disease.

   1-3 months:  Some sort of influx of troops from Iran, disguised as 
civilians or no; clashes with 'warlords' and/or any possible attempts to 
set up UN presence.  Terrorism exports begin/increase.

   3-6 months:  Establishment of religious patriarchy with attendant 
mass executions, or civil war, or border war.  Carnage continues.  
Possible balkanization of Iraq, or ongoing theatre-wide religious conflict.

   I don't think I can express my fears for the Iraqi people much better 
than that.  And all that assumes Saddam is dead.  So yeah, I'd think an 
estimate of 50k civilian deaths might be very conservative.

   But I'm not married to this scenario, except as things to consider.  
So, what do those folks here who argue for immediate withdrawal believe 
would happen?  Remember, the UN doesn't currently have enough equipment 
or personnel commitments to hold the whole country, IIRC, and if they 
did it would probably take 3-6 months to get them in there...  -cmb

p.s.  Carl, your comments didn't read as sarcastic to me.  Just my 2c.