[Peace-discuss] public opinion poll in Iraq

[patton paul]

This article describes the results of a public opinion poll conducted in
Iraq, to find Iraqi opinions concerning the occupation, Saddam Hussein and
the future of the country.
-Paul P.


Still Waiting for the Euphoria
A Poll Among Iraqis Indicates the Bush Team Was Wrong in Foreseeing a Warm
Welcome for the Occupiers
by John Zogby


Five months after the end of the war, Americans remain deeply ambivalent
over whether it was right or wrong to invade Iraq. In part, that's because
it's still not clear whether we were, in fact, welcomed by the people we
set out to liberate.

Most people know by now that the popularity of the United States has
dramatically declined across the Arab world during the last half year. But
how about in Iraq itself? Are Iraqis glad that we came? Do they see a
brighter future ahead? Do they want us to stay and see them through this
mess or do they want us to pack up and get out?

In August, I conducted the first serious public opinion survey of Iraqis
since the end of the war, in hopes of getting answers to some of these
questions.

Polling in Iraq is not easy for many reasons. People are scared, unused to
free speech and often eager to give the answers they think you want to
hear.

Unable to conduct a U.S.-style telephone survey, we instead sent out
dozens of door-to-door interviewers to talk to women in their households
and men in public places. Bowing to custom, women interviewed women and
men interviewed men.

What would be a routine process in most countries was anything but in
Iraq. Our teams of interviewers were caught in a crossfire in Ramadi
during an attack on a military convoy. In Kirkuk, one of our supervisors
was seized by Kurdish forces and was not released until several calls were
made  and a bounty paid  to locals. Interviewers were detained several
times in Basra, where they were also chased by an unidentified automobile.
And checkpoints manned by armed soldiers were everywhere, making travel
difficult.

We conducted 600 interviews in four metropolitan areas that we determined
would give us the right cross section of the population: Basra (mainly
Shiite), Ramadi, (near Baghdad and mainly Sunni), Kirkuk (Kurd and
Turkmen), and Mosul (Sunni and Christian). Our results date from late
August, but we have no reason to believe opinions have changed
substantially since then.

What we found is that Iraqis, like people all around the world, hold
nuanced views. They are glad to see Saddam Hussein gone  as shown by their
desire to punish members of the old regime  but they don't really trust
the Americans who drove him out.

They are intrigued by democracy but worry that it may not be compatible
with their culture. They object to being occupied and are eager to take
the reins of government themselves. But those in the minority are a little
more nervous at the prospect of democracy than those in the majority.

Here are some specifics:

 Seven in 10 told us that Iraq would be a better country and that they
themselves would be better off in five years.

 Only two in five (39%) said that "democracy can work in Iraq," while a
majority (51%) agreed that "democracy is a Western way of doing things and
will not work here." Shiites  who suffered the most under Hussein and who
make up the majority in Iraq  are more evenly split about democracy
(45%-46%), while Sunnis are far less favorable.

 Asked about the kind of government that would be best for Iraq, half of
all respondents (49%) said they preferred "a democracy with elected
representatives guided by Sharia (Islamic law)." Twenty-four percent
prefer an "Islamic state ruled by clerics based on Sharia." Only one in
five (21%) preferred a "secular democracy with elected representatives."

 Three out of five made it clear that they wanted Iraqis left alone to
work out a government for themselves, while only one in three want the
United States and Britain to "help make sure a fair government is set up."
Two out of three Iraqis  and seven in 10 Sunnis  want U.S. and British
forces out of Iraq in a year.

 Three out of four Iraqis want the leaders of Hussein's Baath Party
punished. Osama bin Laden is viewed favorably by 36% and unfavorably by
47%.

 Half of all Iraqis interviewed say the United States will hurt Iraq over
the next five years. Only 36% say the U.S. will help.

One thing is clear: The predicted euphoria of Iraqis has not materialized.

Months after the U.S. military victory, American policymakers and troops
are left not only with the daunting task of nation-building and restoring
the country's devastated infrastructure but also with having to win the
hearts and minds of Iraqis who are not keen on the U.S. occupation.

Iraqis, like their fellow Arabs, feel victimized by a history of betrayal
and humiliation at the hands of Western powers. It appears that U.S.
policymakers overlooked or misread this sentiment.

John Zogby is president and chief executive officer of an independent
polling company in Utica, N.Y., and Washington, D.C.

Copyright 2003 Los Angeles Times