[Peace-discuss] FW: Kicking Ass in Afghanistan (fwd)

[Alfred Kagan]

Yes, remember our original AWARE pamphlet on Afghanistan.

At 2:09 PM -0400 4/6/04, Dlind49 at aol.com wrote:
>not just kick  some ass but to overthrow taliban so UNICOL could build oil
>pipeline:
>
>
>U.S. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE
>ON ASIA AND THE PACIFIC OF THE COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS HOUSE OF
>REPRESENTATIVES
>
>ONE HUNDRED FIFTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION
>FEBRUARY 12, 1998
>
>
>Next we would like to hear from Mr. John J. Maresca, vice president of
>international relations, Unocal Corporation. You may proceed as you wish.
>
>STATEMENT OF JOHN J. MARESCA, VICE PRESIDENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,
>UNOCAL CORPORATION
>
>Mr. Maresca. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. It's nice to see you again. I am John
>Maresca, vice president for international relations of the Unocal Corporation.
>Unocal, as you know, is one of the world's leading energy resource and project
>development companies. I appreciate your invitation to speak here today. I
>believe these hearings are important and timely. I congratulate you 
>for focusing
>on Central Asia oil and gas reserves and the role they play in shaping U.S.
>policy.
>
>I would like to focus today on three issues. First, the need for multiple
>pipeline routes for Central Asian oil and gas resources. Second, the need for
>U.S. support for international and regional efforts to achieve balanced and
>lasting political settlements to the conflicts in the region, including
>Afghanistan. Third, the need for structured assistance to encourage 
>economic reforms and
>the development of appropriate investment climates in the region. In this
>regard, we specifically support repeal or removal of section 907 of 
>the Freedom
>Support Act.
>
>Mr. Chairman, the Caspian region contains tremendous untapped hydrocarbon
>reserves. Just to give an idea of the scale, proven natural gas reserves equal
>more than 236 trillion cubic feet. The region's total oil reserves may well
>reach more than 60 billion barrels of oil. Some estimates are as high as 200
>billion barrels. In 1995, the region was producing only 870,000 
>barrels per day. By
>2010, western companies could increase production to about 4.5 million
>barrels a day, an increase of more than 500 percent in only 15 years. If this
>occurs, the region would represent about 5 percent of the world's total oil
>production.
>
>One major problem has yet to be resolved: how to get the region's vast energy
>resources to the markets where they are needed. Central Asia is isolated.
>Their natural resources are landlocked, both geographically and 
>politically. Each
>of the countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia faces difficult political
>challenges. Some have unsettled wars or latent conflicts. Others have evolving
>systems where the laws and even the courts are dynamic and changing. In
>addition, a chief technical obstacle which we in the industry face 
>in transporting
>oil is the region's existing pipeline infrastructure.
>
>Because the region's pipelines were constructed during the Moscow-centered
>Soviet period, they tend to head north and west toward Russia. There are no
>connections to the south and east. But Russia is currently unlikely to absorb
>large new quantities of foreign oil. It's unlikely to be a 
>significant market for
>new energy in the next decade. It lacks the capacity to deliver it to other
>markets.
>
>Two major infrastructure projects are seeking to meet the need for additional
>export capacity. One, under the aegis of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium,
>plans to build a pipeline west from the northern Caspian to the 
>Russian Black Sea
>port of Novorossiysk. Oil would then go by tanker through the Bosporus to the
>Mediterranean and world markets.
>
>The other project is sponsored by the Azerbaijan International Operating
>Company, a consortium of 11 foreign oil companies, including four American
>companies, Unocal, Amoco, Exxon and Pennzoil. This consortium conceives of two
>possible routes, one line would angle north and cross the north Caucasus to
>Novorossiysk. The other route would cross Georgia to a shipping 
>terminal on the Black
>Sea. This second route could be extended west and south across Turkey to the
>Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.
>
>But even if both pipelines were built, they would not have enough total
>capacity to transport all the oil expected to flow from the region 
>in the future.
>Nor would they have the capability to move it to the right markets. Other
>export pipelines must be built.
>
>At Unocal, we believe that the central factor in planning these pipelines
>should be the location of the future energy markets that are most 
>likely to need
>these new supplies. Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Newly
>Independent States of the former Soviet Union are all slow growth markets
>where demand will grow at only a half a percent to perhaps 1.2 
>percent per year
>during the period 1995 to 2010.
>
>Asia is a different story all together. It will have a rapidly increasing
>energy consumption need. Prior to the recent turbulence in the Asian Pacific
>economies, we at Unocal anticipated that this region's demand for 
>oil would almost
>double by 2010. Although the short-term increase in demand will probably not
>meet these expectations, we stand behind our long-term estimates.
>
>I should note that it is in everyone's interest that there be adequate
>supplies for Asia's increasing energy requirements. If Asia's energy 
>needs are not
>satisfied, they will simply put pressure on all world markets, driving prices
>upwards everywhere.
>
>The key question then is how the energy resources of Central Asia can be made
>available to nearby Asian markets. There are two possible solutions, with
>several variations. One option is to go east across China, but this would mean
>constructing a pipeline of more than 3,000 k ilometers just to reach Central
>China. In addition, there would have to be a 2,000-kilometer 
>connection to reach
>the main population centers along the coast. The question then is what will be
>the cost of transporting oil through this pipeline, and what would be the
>netback which the producers would receive.
>
>For those who are not familiar with the terminology, the netback is the price
>which the producer receives for his oil or gas at the wellhead after all the
>transportation costs have been deducted. So it's the price he receives for the
>oil he produces at the wellhead.
>
>The second option is to build a pipeline south from Central Asia to the
>Indian Ocean. One obvious route south would cross Iran, but this is 
>foreclosed for
>American companies because of U.S. sanctions legislation. The only other
>possible route is across Afghanistan, which has of course its own unique
>challenges. The country has been involved in bitter warfare for 
>almost two decades, and
>is still divided by civil war. From the outset, we have made it clear that
>construction of the pipeline we have proposed across Afghanistan 
>could not begin
>until a recognized government is in place that has the confidence of
>governments, lenders, and our company.
>
>Mr. Chairman, as you know, we have worked very closely with the University of
>Nebraska at Omaha in developing a training program for Afghanistan which will
>be open to both men and women, and which will operate in both parts of the
>country, the north and south.
>
>Unocal foresees a pipeline which would become part of a regional system that
>will gather oil from existing pipeline infrastructure in Turkmenistan,
>Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia. The 1,040-mile long oil pipeline 
>would extend
>south through Afghanistan to an export terminal that would be 
>constructed on the
>Pakistan coast. This 42-inch diameter pipeline will have a shipping 
>capacity of
>one million barrels of oil per day. The estimated cost of the project, which
>is similar in scope to the trans-Alaska pipeline, is about $2.5 billion.
>
>Given the plentiful natural gas supplies of Central Asia, our aim is to link
>gas resources with the nearest viable markets. This is basic for the
>commercial viability of any gas project. But these projects also 
>face geopolitical
>challenges. Unocal and the Turkish company Koc Holding are 
>interested in bringing
>competitive gas supplies to Turkey. The proposed Eurasia natural gas pipeline
>would transport gas from Turkmenistan directly across the Caspian Sea through
>Azerbaijan and Georgia to Turkey. Of course the demarcation of the Caspian
>remains an issue.
>
>Last October, the Central Asia Gas Pipeline Consortium, called CentGas, in
>which Unocal holds an interest, was formed to develop a gas pipeline 
>which will
>link Turkmenistan's vast Dauletabad gas field with markets in Pakistan and
>possibly India. The proposed 790-mile pipeline will open up new 
>markets for this
>gas, traveling from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Multan in Pakistan.
>The proposed extension would move gas on to New Delhi, where it would connect
>with an existing pipeline. As with the proposed Central Asia oil pipeline,
>CentGas can not begin construction until an internationally 
>recognized Afghanistan
>Government is in place.
>
>The Central Asia and Caspian region is blessed with abundant oil and gas that
>can enhance the lives of the region's residents, and provide energy for
>growth in both Europe and Asia. The impact of these resources on 
>U.S. commercial
>interests and U.S. foreign policy is also significant. Without peaceful
>settlement of the conflicts in the region, cross-border oil and gas 
>pipelines are not
>likely to be built. We urge the Administration and the Congress to give strong
>support to the U.N.-led peace process in Afghanistan. The U.S. Government
>should use its influence to help find solutions to all of the 
>region's conflicts.
>
>U.S. assistance in developing these new economies will be crucial to business
>success. We thus also encourage strong technical assistance programs
>throughout the region. Specifically, we urge repeal or removal of 
>section 907 of the
>Freedom Support Act. This section unfairly restricts U.S. Government 
>assistance
>to the government of Azerbaijan and limits U.S. influence in the region.
>
>Developing cost-effective export routes for Central Asian resources is a
>formidable task, but not an impossible one. Unocal and other 
>American companies
>like it are fully prepared to undertake the job and to make Central Asia once
>again into the crossroads it has been in the past. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
>
>[The prepared statement of Mr. Maresca appears in the appendix.]
>
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-- 


Al Kagan
African Studies Bibliographer and Professor of Library Administration
Africana Unit, Room 328
University of Illinois Library
1408 W. Gregory Drive
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e-mail. akagan at uiuc.edu