[Peace-discuss] Importance of Venezuelan Election

[David Green]

ZNet Commentary
What's at Stake in the Venezuela Referendum August 15,
2004
By Yves Engler 

It is surprising that the media --left media included
-- has been 
relatively silent regarding Venezuela?s upcoming
presidential recall 
referendum. Little has been reported about the
importance of a Chavez win both 
domestically and internationally.

What exactly is at stake in Venezuela?s presidential
recall referendum 
this Sunday?

A "yes" vote on the recall to remove Chavez from the
presidency would 
be devastating for Cuba. The new regime would likely
halt the shipment 
of subsidized oil, presently being exchanged for Cuban
doctors, sports 
officials and educators. 

An opposition victory would also have broader
geopolitical consequences 
throughout the Caribbean. Venezuela provides Caribbean
countries with 
oil on good terms and as a result these states are
increasingly 
sympathetic to the present Venezuelan regime. (i.e.
they are decreasingly 
submissive in the face of US pressure, especially in
the Organization of 
American States (OAS)). The Caribbean community
(Caricom) recently made 
the decision to refuse to recognize the regime in
Haiti. Right-wing 
commentators, nervous about newfound Caribbean
independence, have been 
citing this decision as example of Venezuela?s
influence on the region.(In 
fact, Caricom?s action, stem mainly from the fear that
accepting such 
blatant disregard for the democratic process may
increase the likelihood 
similar events in their own countries.) If the
opposition wins the 
recall referendum we can expect any counterweight
influence Venezuela 
exerts on the Caribbean nations to cease.

Victory for the opposition would also have the effect
of halting fiery 
denunciations of US imperialism characteristic of the
Chavez regime. 
Opposition forces would be more likely to send
Venezuelan troops to Iraq, 
Haiti or whichever country is next on Washington?s
list.

Odds are the opposition would harm the various
"mission" programs the 
government has set up. There are ten different kinds
of "missions" 
including food, micro credit and literacy programs.
These have been a huge 
boost in basic services to the poor majority. They
have also genuinely 
empowered the poor, laying the ground for future
social gains.

As evidence of the "missions" popularity, even the
opposition has been 
forced to embrace them, publicly at the very least.
The opposition?s 
new position is that efficient missions should be
kept. In reality it is 
almost certain that the new regime would abolish the
Barrio Adentro 
(Health mission) mainly because the clinics are
staffed by 17,000 Cuban 
doctors who work in under-serviced slums and poor
rural communities.

Venezuela is endowed with a wealth of oil, however,
the United Nations 
Human Development Index ranks it as only the 68th best
country in the 
world in which to live. Decades of pumping black gold
have only 
succeeded in enriching a minority. According to UN
figures, the richest 10 per 
cent of the Venezuelan population has 62.9 times the
yearly income of 
the poorest 10 per cent. (The comparable ratio for the
USA is 15.9 and 
Japan ranks as the most equal country at 4.5)

Latin America remains the most unequal region on the
globe. All eyes 
are turned towards Venezuela in the hope that
something can be done about 
the extreme poverty and inequality. The ratios of
income/consumption 
for richest 10 per cent of population compared to the
poorest 10 per cent 
are as follows:

Brazil 85.0Paraguay 70.4Venezuela 62.9Panama
62.3Colombia 57.8Guatemala 
55.1Peru 49.9Honduras 49.1El Salvador 47.4Mexico
45.0Ecuador 44.9Chile 
40.6Argentina 39.1Nicaragua 36.1Guyana 25.9Costa Rica
25.1Bolivia 
24.6Uruguay 18.9

On the international front a large step backwards will
be taken on the 
path towards Latin American integration if the
opposition prevails. 
Chavez has been a vocal opponent of the Free Trade
Area of the Americas, 
preferring to focus efforts on strengthening ties
within South America. 
Washington, on the other hand, has for 200 years
actively opposed Latin 
American integration, preferring to interact with
smaller, weaker 
states.

The process of integration has been advancing on many
different fronts. 
Venezuela recently gained partner status in Mercosur,
the common market 
between Brazil, Argentina, Uraguay and Paraguay. A few
weeks ago Chavez 
announced plans to buy eight new oil tankers from
long-slumping 
shipyards near Buenos Aires, Argentina. Venezuela and
Argentina have begun the 
creation of a common Energy company named Petrosur.
Brazil?s 
state-owned oil company, Petrobas, plans to be
associated with this emerging Pan 
South American oil enterprise.

Venezuela and Colombia plan to build a gas pipeline
that will ship 
natural gas between the two countries. Chavez is
trying to bring together 
the Caribbean countries in the creation of
PetroCaribe, which would 
receive Venezuelan oil under preferential terms.
Chavez states that it is 
necessary for Venezuela to "support our brothers in
the Caribbean where 
small countries are having great energy difficulties
and they are 
exploited. By whom?" he asks, "the transnational oil
companies," he replies.

A public TV station broadcasting throughout South
American is in the 
works and the Venezuelan government has discussed the
idea of a South 
American Development bank.

The aforementioned steps towards Latin American
integration may be 
curbed if the opposition wins the recall referendum.
Additionally 
Venezuelan support for various social movements across
the continent will come 
to an end.

And what if Chavez wins the recall election? Will the
U.S. intervene to 
further destabilize Venezuela? The Bush administration
has certainly 
done a lot to get rid of Chavez. That he?s alive for
the recall 
referendum is a sign of the Bolivarian process?
resilience.  Just this Tuesday 
Spain?s El Mundo newspaper reported on a Central
Intelligence Agency 
meeting held in Chile to prepare a contingency plan in
the event that 
Chavez wins the recall.

Still, the current International and domestic
situation make it very 
difficult for Bush to get rid of Chavez until after
the US election at 
the very least. Chavez? supporters, including much of
the military, would 
not take kindly to his ouster (read: assassination).
Removing Chavez 
would undoubtedly cut Venezuela?s oil production,
driving oil prices even 
higher. Bush?s buddies in the oil industry wouldn?t
complain, but many 
within the larger business class certainly would make
some noise.

Oil prices have already affected the profits of many
companies.  
Additionally, as the US election approaches, these
high gas prices are 
nothing but trouble for Bush. In a society totally
dependent upon cars for 
transportation, increased gas costs hurt much of the
working class, in 
turn costing Bush votes.

Winning the recall referendum would give the
opposition the presidency 
for just over two years. The Chavistas would still
control the 
Congress. If the "missions" are truly popular and the
poor continue to 
organize, it will be difficult for the opposition to
dismantle them. In fact a 
serious attack by the opposition on these missions
would increase the 
likelihood of a victory for Chavez two years down the
road.

Of critical importance it is also necessary to
consider the position of 
the army, who would, in the short-term at least, most
likely remain 
loyal to Chavez. Drastic purges of their ranks or
heavy repression -- 
against protesters trying to save the "missions" for
instance -- could spur 
a left-wing military coup. Likewise the opposition?s
ability to retake 
control over the state oil company, Pdvsa, is not
assured. The newly 
formed blue-collar oil workers union has already
announced plans to 
strike if the recall is successful.

After Sunday hopefully we will be asking how can the
initial Bolivarian 
successes be expanded not how will the opposition
destroy the 
accomplishments.

Yves engler is author of the forthcoming book playing
left wing from 
hockey to politics: the making of a student activist.
He?s traveled 
extensively in Venezuela.





		
__________________________________
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail - 50x more storage than other providers!
http://promotions.yahoo.com/new_mail