[Peace-discuss] Fwd: Congo (Kinshasa): Back to the Brink

[Al Kagan]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: africafocus at igc.org
> Date: December 19, 2004 1:06:12 PM CST
> To: akagan at uiuc.edu
> Subject: Congo (Kinshasa): Back to the Brink
>
>
> Congo (Kinshasa): Back to the Brink
>
> AfricaFocus Bulletin
> Dec 19, 2004 (041219)
> (Reposted from sources cited below)
>
> Editor's Note
>
> "In Iraq ...the 2003 aid budget was $3.5 billion or $138 per
> person. ... In spite of [the Democratic Republic of] Congo's rank
> as the deadliest recorded conflict since World War II, the world's
> humanitarian response in 2004 was a total of $188 million in aid or
> a scant $3.23 per person." - International Rescue Committee
>
> As the year draws to a close, the Democratic Republic of the Congo
> (DRC), along with Sudan, stands as one of the most formidable
> immediate challenges to the capacity of Africa and the
> international community to curb violence costing millions of lives.
> This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains summaries from new briefings
> from the International Crisis Group and the International Rescue
> Committee on the imminent threat of escalated conflict in the DRC.
>
> Meanwhile, the head of the African Union monitoring force in Sudan
> warned that the unresolved conflict there was "a time-bomb." For
> previous Bulletins and links to current news on Sudan, see
> http://www.africafocus.org/country/sudan.php
>
> Another AfricaFocus Bulletin today contains a commentary on the
> recent peaceful and well-run election in Ghana, one of five African
> countries that held national elections in the last two months
> with little international notice (the others were Botswana,
> Namibia, Niger, and Mozambique).
>
> ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
>
> NOTE: Today's two issues of AfricaFocus Bulletin are the last for
> 2004. My best wishes to readers for the holidays and for our common
> work and concerns for Africa as we enter the new year. Publication
> will resume in the second week of January.
>
> AfricaFocus Bulletin will continue to need your support in 2005. To
> make a voluntary subscription payment, visit
>  http://www.africafocus.org/support.php
>
> The AfricaFocus website is always available and regularly updated
> with news feeds from AllAfrica.com and IRIN. For convenient access
> to country-specific background links and news feeds, visit
> http://www.africafocus.org/country/countries.php
>
> Previous issues of AfricaFocus Bulletin are easily accessible on
> the site. Topical listings include:
>
> Politics and human rights
> http://www.africafocus.org/polexp.php
>
> Peace and security
> http://www.africafocus.org/peaceexp.php
>
> Health
> http://www.africafocus.org/healthexp.php
>
> Economy and development
> http://www.africafocus.org/econexp.php
>
> ++++++++++++++++++++++end editor's note+++++++++++++++++++++++
>
> Back to the Brink in the Congo
>
> International Crisis Group
>
> http://www.crisisweb.org
>
> Press Release
>
> Nairobi/Brussels, 17 December 2004: Rwanda's dramatic escalation of
> the conflict in the eastern Congo (Democratic Republic) risks
> catastrophe in Central Africa. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan
> should immediately convene an emergency meeting of all concerned
> parties to prevent the impending disaster.
>
> Back to the Brink in the Congo, the latest briefing from the
> International Crisis Group, shows why Rwanda's recent armed
> incursion into the Congo is a major threat to regional stability.
> Two wars devastated the Congo in the past decade, resulting in some
> 3.8 million deaths, and both began the same way: with Rwandan
> troops crossing the border into its giant neighbour's unstable
> east.
>
> "We're now looking into the abyss of a third explosive calamity",
> says Suliman Baldo, Crisis Group's Africa Program Director. "But
> the situation can still be saved if the key players come together
> now to hammer out a joint strategy".
>
> Kigali has consistently complained about the continued presence of
> the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) in North
> and South Kivu provinces of the Congo, and the danger they pose to
> Rwanda. The UN estimates FDLR forces to be some 8,000 to 10,000
> strong; they do not seem to pose a serious military threat to
> Rwanda, but recent signs the group has been readying attacks have
> understandably raised tensions.
>
> "Kigali has legitimate concerns about the FDLR in the Congo that
> need to be addressed, but risking a return to full-scale regional
> conflict only exacerbates the problem", says Susan Linnee, Crisis
> Group's Central Africa Project Director. "Rwanda is playing with
> fire".
>
> The crisis is rooted in both failure to deal with security issues
> in the Kivus and the faltering political process in Kinshasa meant
> to produce a legitimate government in June 2005 elections. None of
> the bilateral and regional security agreements have been
> implemented. A major unfulfilled bargain is definitive Rwandan
> withdrawal in exchange for disarming of the FDLR, voluntarily or by
> the Congo transitional government's yet unreformed, weak army.
>
> The Security Council should immediately direct the peacekeeping
> mission (MONUC) to secure key border points, then sit all parties
> down urgently, decide on a specific course of action with a
> time-line, designate responsible actors, establish UN verification,
> and apply a mix of muscle and diplomacy to make a comprehensive
> solution possible. Donors should link their aid to progress on
> these agreements, and the Council should punish either country --
> an arms embargo and targeted measures against high officials -- if
> it fails to fulfil its obligations.
>
> Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) +32 (0) 485 555 946
> Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
>
> *******************************************************************
>
> Back to the Brink in the Congo
>
> Africa Briefing
>
> Nairobi/Brussels, 17 December 2004
>
> Overview
>
> Both wars that devastated the Congo (Democratic Republic) in the
> past decade and led to some 3.8 million deaths[1] began when
> Rwandan troops crossed the border into that giant country's
> unstable eastern region, the Kivus. History may be repeating itself
> in recent weeks as a Rwandan incursion stirs fears of a third
> catastrophe, but the situation can still be saved. There is
> uncertainty about what is actually happening on the ground in the
> isolated and rugged border terrain -- including whether the
> Rwandans are holding territory -- but the strong government in
> Kigali appears to have limited aims, and the weak government in
> Kinshasa is unlikely to confront the invaders seriously. At the
> least, however, the crisis threatens the Congo's fragile political
> transition. At worst it could cause the Great Lakes region to go up
> in flames again. The international community, including the UN,
> whose peacekeeping mission (MONUC) has stood by ineffectively,
> needs to sit all parties down for urgent discussions, decide on a
> course of action and apply a mix of muscle and diplomacy to make a
> comprehensive solution possible.
>
> Antagonism between the Kivus' ethnic groups has been steadily
> rising in the last few months. Increased Rwandan interference in
> the two eastern provinces will add to the resentment of inhabitants
> of other origins against those of Rwandan origin whom they tend to
> view as collaborators with a foreign aggressor. In the recent wars,
> many Congolese of Rwandan origin, and particularly Tutsis, actively
> cooperated with the Rwandans and their local allies, the RCD-Goma.
> They fear a repeat of past pogroms against their community by
> government soldiers sent from Kinshasa to quell local rebellions or
> repel Rwandan incursions. Fighting in the past few days for control
> of Kanyabayonga between reinforcements sent by the government and
> the North Kivu-based segment of the army made up of former
> Rwanda-backed rebels and the resulting flight of civilians
> underscore the dangers of ethnic polarisation and inter-communal
> violence.
>
> The crisis is rooted in both the failure to deal with security
> issues in the Kivus and the faltering political process in
> Kinshasa. Neither the 2002 Pretoria Agreement, which envisages a
> transition culminating in election of a Congo government in June
> 2005, nor subsequent bilateral and regional security agreements
> signed by the parties, have been implemented. A key bargain that
> remains unfulfilled is definitive Rwandan withdrawal in exchange
> for disarming of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda
> (FDLR), the insurgent force with strong links to the génocidaires
> of 1994. It is time to end the cycle of impunity: donors should
> link progress on these agreements directly to their aid and those
> who undermine the agreements need to be held personally responsible
> for their actions.
>
> Rwanda's reckless decision to play with fire followed almost
> immediately the summit pledge of eleven regional leaders, including
> President Paul Kagame, to "fully support the national peace
> processes in the region and refrain from any acts, statements or
> attitudes likely to negatively impact them..."[2] It has multiple
> motivations. The 8,000 to 10,000 FDLR fighters in the Kivus are too
> few and disorganised to pose an imminent military or political
> threat to the country but they are a grave danger for civilians in
> the Kivus on whom they prey, including those of Rwandan origin.
> Kigali also wishes to maintain its political and economic influence
> over the two potentially rich provinces.
>
> UN Secretary General Kofi Annan should convene an emergency meeting
> to develop a coherent strategy that addresses all aspects of the
> crisis: the continuing presence of armed FDLR, Rwandan security
> needs, and the endangered Congolese political transition. Congo and
> Rwanda should participate and voice their concerns and proposals.
>
> On its past record, the international community will have no
> difficulty speaking strongly to the effect that any sign of
> continued support for the FDLR by the Congolese government, its
> continued failure to disarm those rebels, a renewed Rwandan
> incursion, and even continued dithering on the transition by
> Congolese politicians is unacceptable. More difficult, but
> necessary, will be to give teeth to those sentiments.
>
> Should Congo or Rwanda fail to fulfil existing obligations or those
> assumed in the course of the new process that Crisis Group believes
> must be launched immediately, the Security Council, acting under
> Chapter VII of the UN Charter in response to the threat to
> international peace and security, should impose penalties on the
> culpable party, including a targeted suspension of international
> assistance (with care to minimise effects on the civilian
> population); an arms embargo; and an assets freeze and travel ban
> against high officials.
>
> It will perhaps be even more difficult to reach agreement on
> realistic measures to deal with the FDLR. Insecurity in the Kivus
> is a fundamental source of tension and instability, crippling the
> Congolese transition and poisoning relations between Rwanda and the
> Congo. The FDLR presence there is a major element of the witches'
> brew. Unfortunately, the voluntary program of disarmament,
> demobilisation, repatriation, resettlement, and reintegration (DDR)
> has failed.[3] Forcible disarmament is called for and has received
> some verbal support from the African Union (AU) and South Africa.
> But the Congo's own army (the FARDC) is too weak. MONUC is
> unwilling and in its present configuration perhaps incapable as
> well. Creative thinking is needed to devise a workable compromise
> combining more vigorous FARDC and MONUC steps, while MONUC and
> others redouble their efforts to establish a functioning national
> army capable of meeting the Congo's security needs and
> responsibilities.
>
> Donors should turn the coordination body they have in Kinshasa --
> the International Committee in Support of the Transition (CIAT) --
> into a much more proactive body to further progress in the
> politically deadlocked capital, including on the all important
> reform of the security sector.
>
> Once a plan has been devised, the Security Council should endorse
> it and request that the Secretary General supervise its
> implementation through his Special Representative in the Congo and
> keep the Council closely advised.
>
> If all this can be done, or at least set on its way, within the
> next few weeks, perhaps another collapse of the Congo and war for
> its riches can be headed off.[4]
>
> [1] This is the figure in a recent study by the International
> Rescue Committee, "Mortality Rates in the Democratic Republic of
> Congo: Results from a Nationwide Survey, Conducted April-July
> 2004", December 2004, available at
> http://www.theirc.org/pdf/DRC_MortalitySurvey2004_RB_8Dec04.pdf.
>
> [2] "Dar-Es-Salaam Declaration on Peace, Security, Democracy, and
> Development in the Great Lakes Region", First Summit of Heads of
> State and Government, Dar-Es-Salaam, 19-20 November 2004, Ch. III,
> Article 17.
>
> [3] "Third Special Report of the Secretary-General on the UN
> Organisation Mission in the DR Congo", S/2004/650, 16 August 2004.
> For simplicity, Crisis Group uses the short form abbreviation DDR
> in this briefing to cover the five concepts rather than DDRRR.
>
> [4] Crisis Group plans to publish an extensive report on the
> situation in the Kivus early in 2005.
>
> *************************************************************
>
> International Rescue Committee
>
> http://www.theirc.org
>
> IRC study reveals 31,000 die monthly in Congo conflict and 3.8
> million died in past six years. When will the world pay attention?
>
> Amid a rapidly deteriorating security situation in the Democratic
> Republic of Congo, the International Rescue Committee issued a
> mortality survey today which finds that more than 3.8 million
> people have died there since the start of the war in August, 1998
> and more than 31,000 civilians continue to die monthly as a result
> of the conflict.
>
> "DR Congo remains by far the deadliest crisis in the world, but
> year after year the conflict festers and the international
> community fails to take effective action," says the IRC's Dr.
> Richard Brennan, one of the study's authors. "In a matter of six
> years, the world lost a population equivalent to the entire country
> of Ireland or the city of Los Angeles. How many innocent Congolese
> have to perish before the world starts paying attention?"
>
> The latest mortality study, a joint effort by the IRC and
> Australia's Burnet Institute, is among the most comprehensive ever
> conducted in a conflict zone, covering 19,500 households. Mortality
> data was collected for the period between January 2003 and April
> 2004.
>
> * Teams of physicians and epidemiologists found that during this
> time more than 1,000 people died every day in excess of normal
> mortality, nearly 500,000 excess deaths in all, and almost half of
> the casualties were among children under five.
>
> * As documented by three previous IRC surveys in DR Congo, the vast
> majority (this time 98%) were killed by disease and malnutrition,
> byproducts of a war that destroyed much of the health care system
> and economy.
>
> * Of particular importance is the finding that insecurity has a
> powerful effect on death from both violent and non-violent causes.
> In the eastern conflict-prone provinces where insecurity often
> impedes access to humanitarian aid, death from infectious disease
> and hunger is highest. If the effects of insecurity and violence in
> Congo's eastern provinces were removed entirely, mortality would
> reduce to almost normal levels. Such was the case in
> Kisangani-Ville, where the arrival of peacekeepers helped quell
> fighting, allowing the IRC and its partners to rehabilitate basic
> health care, water and sanitation services. Crude mortality rates
> subsequently declined by 79 percent and excess mortality was
> eliminated.
>
> In Iraq, where Sadaam Hussein's years of brutality, the effects of
> sanctions and three wars have led to far fewer casualties than DR
> Congo, the 2003 aid budget was $3.5 billion or $138 per person.
> Precise aid figures for 2004 were unavailable. The desperate
> situation in Darfur, Sudan, where an estimated 70,000 people have
> died and some two million have been displaced, has led to more than
> $530 million in foreign aid for 2004 or $89 for each person. In
> spite of DR Congo's rank as the deadliest recorded conflict since
> World War II, the world's humanitarian response in 2004 was a total
> of $188 million in aid or a scant $3.23 per person.
>
> "The international response to the humanitarian crisis in Congo has
> been grossly inadequate in proportion to need," says Brennan. "Our
> findings show that improving and maintaining security and
> increasing simple, proven and cost-effective interventions such as
> basic medical care, immunizations and clean water would save
> hundreds of thousands of lives in Congo. There's no shortage of
> evidence. It's sustained compassion and political will that's
> lacking."
>
> The peace accords of 2002 fueled hope that the years of slaughter,
> displacement, sexual violence and desperation would come to an end.
> The subsequent deployment of international peacekeeping troops
> coincided with the withdrawal of foreign forces, leading to
> increased stability and humanitarian access and a dramatic decline
> in mortality. A new transitional government was established, tasked
> with reunifying the country.
>
> In spite of all these advances, DR Congo is now dangerously close
> to sliding back into full-scale war. Political progress has
> stalled, the reduction in mortality has plateaued and a series of
> violent incidents threaten to undermine the peace process and
> destabilize the region. At this time, Rwanda is threatening to
> attack Hutu extremists in DR Congo, while numerous reports indicate
> an incursion has already taken place. This follows an explosion of
> violence in the eastern city of Bukavu in June and the brutal
> August massacre of nearly 160 Congolese Tutsi refugees at a camp in
> Burundi.
>
> Urgent action is needed to restore stability, strengthen the peace
> process and address the underlying causes of the conflict. The IRC
> makes the following recommendations:
>
> * Stop the Violence. The recent scaling up of the UN peacekeeping
> mission, MONUC, falls short of what's required, as the current
> force remains largely incapable of protecting civilians or Congo's
> borders. It is crucial that all of the requested 23,000 forces be
> deployed. However, more of the same will not help. From the start,
> the troops have been poorly equipped and trained and lacking in
> commitment or will to carry out their mandate. It is vital that
> MONUC be given the training, equipment and resources necessary to
> implement their mandate -- to disarm and apprehend Rwandan Hutu
> fighters, prevent cross-border incursions and arms flows, protect
> vulnerable civilians and restore stability to eastern provinces.
>
> * Promote lasting peace. Donor governments must hold all parties
> involved in the conflict more accountable, ensuring they abide by
> and effectively implement the December 2002 Pretoria peace
> agreement and subsequent accords. Peace in the east must be made a
> priority. More pressure from the international community must be
> exercised on foreign governments, forces and militias to cease
> violent and destabilizing actions in DR Congo. Donor governments
> must also insist on improved management of Congo's natural wealth
> and support recommendations outlined by the UN panel on illegal
> exploitation of natural resources in DR Congo. In addition, key
> governments must work toward improved coordination and
> implementation of the critical disarmament, demobilization and
> reintegration process for foreign and Congolese combatants.
>
> * Vastly increase humanitarian aid. Save Lives. The current level
> of international humanitarian assistance for Congo is abysmal and
> basic needs are not being met. While European donors slightly
> increased funding in 2004, the US government reduced its support.
> In general, global donors have fallen far short of the UN's funding
> appeal for DR Congo. This appeal must be met. As suggested by the
> IRC's survey, simple inexpensive aid interventions could revive the
> health system and save hundreds of thousands of lives. The IRC
> urges donor nations to scale-up aid to meet the region's immense
> needs. Congolese civil society is vibrant and needs to be
> empowered. With appropriate support, it will be able to regain
> self-sufficiency and mitigate further conflicts in the region.
>
> *************************************************************
> AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication
> providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with
> a particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus
> Bulletin is edited by William Minter.
>
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>
> ************************************************************
>
>

Al Kagan
Africana Unit, Room 328
University of Illinois Library
1408 W. Gregory Drive
Urbana, IL 61820
USA

tel. 217-333-6519
fax 217-333-2214
akagan at uiuc.edu
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