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House?-- it probably was easy to gaze at Iraq and "the long-suffering
Iraqi people" (as Bush put it) and see the obvious. Why wouldn't they
welcome being freed from a brutal, murderous tyrant who reportedly fed
opponents into a wood-chipper? It was also easy to dismiss the Iraqi
military. Why would anyone fight for such a regime, particularly when the
outcome was so obvious? Yet the people have not mounted uprisings and
embraced Bush's war, and the Iraqi soldiers and paramilitary squads have
fought back. They must be fighting for something. Or against something.

Perhaps the soldiers and thugs--threatened or intimidated by Hussein's
regime or not-- are only resisting out of self-preservation. Whatever the
motivation, their ability to defy the US military seems to have caught our
leaders and war advocates by surprise. Bush and his supporters often
compare the struggle against Iraq to the battle against fascism. But did
the people of Germany rebel against the Nazi dictatorship? Did the German
military roll over? It was the people of France, occupied by a foreign
power, who were glad to see the Yanks--not the Germans, who, like the
Iraqis of today, lived under a brutal homegrown regime. What reasons did
US policymakers and the pundits have for believing events in Iraq would
follow their expectations? Was it too inconvenient for them to factor in
Iraqi nationalism or resentment? Or were they unaware such sentiments
might become sand in the gears? Their hubris came in projecting American
assumptions (or wishes) upon the realities of Iraq.

Maybe the optimistic predictions will still come to pass--the Iraqi regime
and military falls apart and Iraqis celebrate their liberation and then
work with the postwar occupation to establish a democratic and prosperous
Iraq. But if hubris helped pave the way to as-of-yet-untaken Basra, such
countermeasures as humility and understanding ought to be introduced into
the US arsenal as postwar plans are drafted. Let's hope the United States
is soon in a position to use them.

Copyright 2003 The Nation