[Peace-discuss] Why there'll be an October Surprise

[C. G. Estabrook]

...and even before October, perhaps, so long as it frightens Americans
enough to vote Republicn (or at least not vote Democrat) in November. The
self-described "war president" (actually the people around him) are
capable of committing enormities to see that happen. James K. Galbraith
(in Salon) here analyses the poll results that will lead them to that
conclusion.  --CGE

*************

"...What is the message of these numbers? One stands out: In his entire
first term, only three episodes so far have gained approval for Bush. All
were related to terrorism and to war. They were 9/11, the war on Iraq,
and the capture of Saddam. Taken together, the five months when Bush
gained popularity on these events account for 89 percent of all the
variation in the change of Bush's job approval, measured by the average
of these polls.

"But equally, consider what has happened in the other 32 months. The
record is remarkably consistent: In the range of approvals above 48
percent or so -- that is, among voters who did not vote for him in 2000
-- Bush loses support, month after month. And he does so at what is
nearly a constant rate. Tick, tock.

"Measured by a number of different techniques (including regression
analysis), Bush's monthly loss of approval appears to be a little less
than 1.6 percentage points -- every month, on average. And the variation
around that average (standard error) is quite small: less than one-fourth
of that value. That means that in 95 percent of the cases, the decline is
between 0.9 and 2.3 percent per month. Tick, tock..."

http://salon.com/opinion/feature/2004/02/09/bush_approval/index.html