[Peace-discuss] Fwd: The pretence of an independent Iraq

[Morton K.Brussel]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Susan Davis <sgdavis at uiuc.edu>
> Date: July 12, 2004 3:14:23 PM CDT
> To: "Morton K. Brussel" <brussel4 at insightbb.com>
> Subject: Fwd: The pretence of an independent Iraq
>
>
>
>> http://argument.independent.co.uk/commentators/story.jsp?story=533904
>>
>> The Independent     22 June 2004
>>
>> The pretence of an independent Iraq
>>
>> The new government has a few cards in its hands, but the resistance 
>> to the
>> occupation is growing
>>
>> by Patrick Cockburn
>>
>> 'Our soldiers call them the League of Frightened Gentlemen," said an
>> American officer pointing derisively towards the buildings in the 
>> so-called
>> green zone in Baghdad, housing the US-led Coalition Provisional 
>> Authority
>> which has ruled Iraq for over a year.
>>
>> It is a miserable record. Isolated behind the concrete walls of the 
>> green
>> zone, Paul Bremer, the head of the CPA, presided over a sort of
>> Washington-on-Tigris, visibly out of touch with the political 
>> realities of
>> Iraq and absorbed in its own bureaucratic civil wars.
>>
>> The ease of the American victory in the war last year led to a rush 
>> of blood
>> to the head. "They were drunk with victory," a Kurdish ally of the US 
>> told
>> me. Saddam Hussein lost the war so swiftly because he had almost no 
>> base in
>> Iraq. Mr Bremer behaved as if the Iraqi leader had a host of loyal
>> followers. The CPA disbanded the Iraqi army and persecuted former 
>> members of
>> the Baath Party. Several million Iraqis had a reason for supporting 
>> the
>> armed resistance.
>>
>> Iraqi politics revolve around relations between the three main 
>> communities
>> in the country: the Shia Arabs (about 60 per cent of the population), 
>> Sunni
>> Arabs (20 per cent) and Kurds (20 per cent). The CPA began by 
>> alienating the
>> Sunni, the main support for Saddam Hussein's regime, and by this 
>> spring had
>> infuriated the Shiites, the majority of Iraqis, who want an election 
>> so they
>> can, at last, take power.
>>
>> In just over a week, the CPA will disappear, supposedly handing over 
>> power
>> to an interim Iraqi government. Few will regret its passing. After 30 
>> June,
>> Iraq will once again have a sovereign government with Sheikh Ghazi 
>> al-Yawer,
>> a Sunni businessman and tribal leader from northern Iraq, as the 
>> President,
>> and Iyad Allawi, a former Baath party member, Shiite and long- term 
>> exile as
>> the Prime Minister.
>>
>> Most of the changes will be cosmetic. The new Iraqi government will 
>> have
>> only limited power. The chances that it will succeed are very 
>> limited. In a
>> situation dominated by security, or rather the lack of it, the interim
>> government does not have an effective armed force. It will have to 
>> rely on
>> the 138,000 American troops, and soldiers from a few assorted foreign 
>> allies
>> such as Britain, Poland and Ukraine. It must also depend largely on 
>> the US
>> for money, because Iraqi oil exports have been hit by sabotage.
>>
>> The priority of the White House in the run-up up to the US 
>> presidential
>> elections in November is to stop bad news from Iraq leading the 
>> nightly
>> television news or dominating the front pages of the newspapers. The 
>> main
>> instrument to achieve this is to pretend that an independent Iraq is 
>> being
>> created which can fight its own wars.
>>
>> The problem is that this picture simply is not true. The base of the 
>> new
>> government is very small. Its leading figures are former exiles. They 
>> have
>> not been elected. They do not have the legitimacy necessary to 
>> establish
>> security forces capable of re-establishing order.
>>
>> Mr Allawi will certainly try. He wants to rebuild an Iraqi army and 
>> security
>> force by persuading senior officers from Saddam Hussein's army to
>> reconstitute their units. He says he will centralise control of the 
>> armed
>> forces so they are no longer auxiliaries for the US army, and direct 
>> them
>> against the insurgents. On paper, the plan sounds convincing. Iraqis, 
>> in
>> general, are desperate for more security which they see deteriorating 
>> every
>> day. But, in contrast with a year ago, Iraqis these days see the US 
>> army as
>> part of the problem rather than the solution. The CPA's own poll 
>> shows that
>> 55 per cent of Iraqis want US troops to leave immediately. A similar 
>> number
>> say that the behaviour of US prison guards at Abu Ghraib prison is 
>> typical
>> of American soldiers in the rest of the country.
>>
>> The interim government will have popular Iraqi support to the extent 
>> that it
>> opposes the US. It won some points when it demanded the return of 
>> Saddam
>> Hussein's old Republican Palace which is to be used by the new 
>> American
>> embassy and its 1,000 employees. Even Muqtada Sadr, the radical Shiite
>> cleric, says he will support the new government if it tries to end the
>> occupation. But Mr Allawi's government cannot ride two horses heading 
>> in
>> different directions for long. At the end of the day, he relies on 
>> the US
>> for soldiers and money and must do what Washington wants.
>>
>> The new government has a few cards in its hands. Part of the Sunni 
>> Arab
>> community may support it if it starts to rebuild the army. Arab 
>> states like
>> Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are more sympathetic than they were to 
>> the
>> Iraqi Governing Council. So, too, are the vastly influential Arab 
>> satellite
>> channels.
>>
>> But the resistance to the occupation is also getting stronger. During 
>> the
>> uprisings in April, the US found its political position in Iraq was 
>> so weak
>> it dare not use its undoubted military strength for fear of provoking 
>> a
>> general rebellion. The insurgents now have their own capital in 
>> Fallujah
>> just 30 miles from Baghdad. Even the road to the airport is unsafe 
>> with
>> almost daily ambushes. Americans can only appear in the streets of 
>> Baghdad
>> inside armoured convoys.
>>
>> The task for Mr Allawi's government will surely prove too great. "The 
>> policy
>> of the US government is one of retreat, and a retreat under fire is
>> notoriously difficult to conduct," said one Iraqi minister. The White 
>> House
>> wants to win the presidential election by showing that it has Iraq 
>> under
>> control, but its many enemies here in Iraq intend to prove the 
>> opposite. A
>> bloody summer is likely to be followed by an even bloodier autumn.
>
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