[Peace-discuss] lunch on friday

[C. G. Estabrook]

[A poll apropos of our prandial palaver; I posted the Pilger piece
previously... --Psmith]

 
Bush, Kerry tied in poll

WASHINGTON (AP) -- John Kerry and President Bush are starting the general
election campaign tied, according to an Associated Press poll, while
independent Ralph Nader is drawing enough support to make Democrats
squirm.

The Republican incumbent had 46% support, Democrat Kerry had 45% and
Nader, the 2000 Green Party candidate who entered the race last month, was
at 6% in the survey conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs.

Bush and the four-term Massachusetts senator, who emerged as the nominee
Tuesday after a string of primary race wins over several rivals, have run
close or Kerry has been ahead in most recent polls that did not include
Nader.

Since Nader entered the race Feb. 22, campaign strategists and political
analysts have been trying to assess the impact of another presidential bid
by the consumer activist who is blamed by some Democrats for Al Gore's
loss in 2000.

The Nader campaign said Thursday it has raised about $250,000 in the 10
days since Nader announced his candidacy.

In the last presidential election, Nader was on the ballot in 43 states
and Washington, D.C., garnering only 2.7% of the vote. But in Florida and
New Hampshire, Bush won such narrow victories that had Gore received the
bulk of Nader's votes in those states, he would have won the general
election.

Exit polls from 2000 show that about half of Nader's voters would have
backed Gore in a two-way race, far more than would have supported Bush.
Nader dismisses the spoiler label.

While Nader's support in the AP-Ipsos poll was 6%, his backing in polls in
2000 fluctuated in the single digits — often at about 4%, but sometimes
higher. This year, Nader is unlikely to get the Green Party's nomination
and he faces a stiff challenge in getting his name on the ballot in the 50
states.

Kenneth Freeman, an 86-year-old retiree from New Smyrna Beach, Fla., who
leans Democratic, was unhappy with Nader's presidential bid.

"Ralph Nader is fouling it all up," Freeman said. "He's taking votes away
from the Democrats. I think he's on an ego trip."

Bush's job approval in the AP-Ipsos poll was 48%, with 49% disapproving
— essentially the same as last month when 47% approved of his job
performance.

His approval rating, which soared close to 90% after the Sept. 11, 2001,
terrorist attacks and remained high for months, has dipped to the lowest
levels of his presidency in recent weeks.

Six in 10 said the country is on the wrong track, up from last month,
while slightly more than one-third of those surveyed — 35% — said the
country is headed in the right direction.

"We're 240-something days from Election Day. We've got a long way to go
and expect it to be a close race throughout, no matter what the factors
are," said Terry Holt, a spokesman for the Bush campaign.

The poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday as Kerry captured nine of
10 Super Tuesday elections and claimed the nomination. Nightly results
suggested that Kerry did not get a bounce from winning the nomination.

"For all those who want to bring change to America, we need to remain
united behind the Democratic nominee," said Kerry campaign spokeswoman
Stephanie Cutter.

Kerry, who had solid backing from 28% of the voters, was strong among
minorities, low-income people, singles, older voters and Catholics.

Bush, who had solid backing from 37%, did well among whites, men,
Protestants, homeowners and suburban dwellers.

"I'm worried about the Democrats taking control," said Stephanie
Rahaniotis, a Republican from Lynbrook, N.Y. She said after the Sept. 11
attacks she feels safer with Bush in charge and thinks Democrats will
"divert our attention from the military."

In the poll, Nader was most likely to get the backing of young adults, and
independents.

The AP-Ipsos poll of 771 registered voters was taken March 1-3 and had a
margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Copyright
2004 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be
published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 
Find this article at:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-03-05-potus-poll_x.htm