[Peace-discuss] 100,000 Iraqi excess deaths?

[Morton K.Brussel]

[Below are extracts from an analysis of the studies on the number of 
war related deaths of Iraqis, especially the latest one published by 
Lancet. It comes from an article in ZNet by Stephen Soldz, a 
sympathetic statistician. MKB]

…In interpreting this estimate [~100,000 deaths], the researchers, like 
all good researchers, give an estimate of its precision. This is done 
by providing what are known as 95% confidence intervals. These mean 
that, 95% of the time, the true value is between the lower and upper 
limits of the confidence interval (remember, these are estimates). 
Given the nature of the study, the confidence intervals for this 98,000 
estimate are broad, from 8,000 to 194,000. Thus, it is 95% likely that 
the true rate of excess deaths is between 8,000 and 198,000.

 From these results alone, it could be that the true value is nearer the 
lower estimate of 8,000 than at the middle or upper end of this 
interval. On this basis, one could conclude that the headlines about 
100,000 excess deaths are unwarranted. But is that all there is to it? 
Fred Kaplan in Slate seems to think so.[21] A closer examination of 
this crucial issue is needed, however.
…

Conclusion
This study is an extremely well-conducted and analyzed piece of 
research. Like most high-quality research, it has potential limitations 
and the paper's Discussion section details possible interferences with 
the accuracy of the results. The authors argue convincingly that none 
of these limitations invalidate their basic findings of high excess 
deaths following the invasion and occupation of Iraq. In fact, they 
argue, based on arguments somewhat different from those I present here, 
that the real number of excess deaths may be even higher than their 
98,000 estimate.

So, have excess 100,000 Iraqis died since the invasion? I don't know 
for sure. But this study convinces me that it is extremely likely that 
many tens of thousands of Iraqis have died, far more than the Iraqi 
Body Count estimate that I had previously relied upon. Noted Middle 
East scholar Juan Cole came to a similar conclusion.[31]

We researchers never consider a single study to be the definitive word 
on a topic. We always like to see a number of studies, using somewhat 
different methodologies and carried out by researchers with different 
biases. The authors clearly recognize this desirability and do not 
present their study as the last word on Iraq mortality rates. (See the 
excellent interview with one of the study authors from the New Republic 
Online.[32]) Near the end of their paper they call for "confirmation by 
an independent body such as the ICRC, Epicentre, or WHO" (p. 7). The 
British-based NGO, Medact has endorsed the call for independent 
investigations.[33] Medact further points out that this study only 
examines Iraqi deaths and that "experience suggests that at least three 
times as many people are injured as are killed in conflict." Thus, it 
is likely that hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have been wounded in the 
last 18 months.

In the absence of this confirmation, this study remains the best 
estimate of Iraq deaths. Its finding are truly horrifying. Recent 
reports indicate that the US is placing a far greater reliance on air 
power as a way of reducing Coalition casualties.[34] If this study's 
findings are at all accurate, the result of these policies will be even 
higher Iraqi civilian casualties. The continued US war in Iraq cannot 
be justified on any conceivable humanitarian grounds when many tens of 
thousands of Iraqis are being killed and many more injured. Surely, 
this study should be a wake up call for all those, regardless of their 
opinions about the original justifiability of the war, who sincerely 
are concerned about the fate of the Iraqi people. The looming attacks 
on Falluja and Ramadi suggest that, in the absence of world outrage 
restraining this Coalition action, the death and injury toll will soon 
be rising far higher.

 
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