[Peace-discuss] Fact Check on Swing Districts

[Alfred Weiss]

Mr. Fabri claims that the Green Party candidates for County Board will 
somehow cause Republicans to win in the "swing" districts of 7, 8, and 
9 and cause a Republican takeover of the County Board.  This claim, 
however, is not supported by the numbers.

In the last election cycle, the first and only for the new County 
electoral map drawn by the Democrats, the top vote-getting Republican 
in district 8 received barely 30% of the vote (and the second place 
candidate received just 26%).  It is highly unlikely that the 
Republican candidate this time (George Gore) will be able to receive 
over the 33.3% of the vote mathematically necessary to win in a 
three-way race.

In districts 7 and 9, according to the vote totals from the highest 
vote-getting Republicans in the 2002 elections, it would be 
mathematically *possible* for a Republican to win in a three-way race, 
although highly unlikely.  The three highest-getting vote totals (to 
include the well-known Hank Spies who ran as a Republican in District 
7) were in the mid 30% range--just over the 33.3% threshold.  The low 
vote totals were below the 33.3% threshold and hovered around 30%.  In 
other words, these districts are *not* Florida and Ohio.

Furthermore, these totals were not the result of an extraordinary field 
of Democratic Party candidates.  Ralph Langenheim, for example, the 
lowest Democratic Party vote-getter in district 8, still received 55% 
of the vote (which also means, incidentally, that lots of people 
refused to cast all their votes rather than vote for Langenheim or a 
Republican).  The vote totals are the result of a carefully 
gerrymandered map that was created to ensure large Democratic 
majorities in these districts.

To sum up, these are not "swing" districts, but districts where 
Republicans are extremely marginalized and have no real chance of 
taking a seat regardless of whether a Green, Socialist, or other left 
of center candidate was in the race.

Peace,

Alfred Weiss