[Peace-discuss] Fwd: [FAIFE-L] Bush's Plan for Cuba

[Alfred Kagan]

FYI, relevant to the forthcoming program on Cuba.

Begin forwarded message:
> Bush's Plan for Cuba
>
> This guide has been developed for legislators, journalists, teachers 
> and others interested in understanding the intent and possible 
> ramifications of a US-Cuba policy based on the recommendations in the 
> Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba Report. We have tried to:
>
> 1. emphasize the dangerous actions recommended by the Commission;
> 2. provide an index to the key passages of the report;
> 3. identify the hypocrisy in the rationale for “regime change”
>
> We believe the report’s blatant intent is to end Cuba’s socialist 
> government and to impose a capitalist state and an electoral system 
> based on the two-party model of United States. The report itself does 
> not clearly explain how the changes will come about, but there are 
> three obvious possibilities: invasion, internal uprising, and 
> disruption in the government on the death of Fidel Castro. The 
> Commission report provides recommendations for capitalizing on all of 
> these which the following pages will call to your attention.
>
> We take the Commission report very seriously because we believe the 
> Bush administration’s actions toward Cuba repeat a pattern that has 
> led to aggressive US military action in other countries and because 
> some of the recommendations have already been put into action. We will 
> identify six steps in this pattern:
>
> 1. promote dissidence,
> 2. intimidate,
> 3. strangle the economy,
> 4. make accusations of dangerous military capacity,
> 5. demonize the existing government,
> 6. impose US occupation.
>
> How to Use this Guide
>
> Content:
> 1. Prelude To The Commission For Assistance To A Free Cuba
> 2. Mandate to the Commission
> 3. Six Interrelated Tasks For Hastening Regime Change
>
> Appendix:
> 1. Recommended Funding
>
> Format of the Document
> 1. all quotes from the document are italicized with page numbers that 
> refer to the PDF file available at 
> www.state.gov/p/wha/rt/cuba/commission/2004/c12237.htm
> 2. commentary and quotes from other sources are referenced for access 
> through the internet.
>
> Prelude to the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba
>
> Following are examples of the Bush Administration’s increasingly 
> hostile language and actions against the Cuban government that 
> establishes a context for evaluating the significance of the 
> Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba Report.
>
> 1. April 1999 – Even though US intelligence agencies in 1997 stated 
> that “Cuba did not pose a threat to U.S. national security,” in 1999, 
> the Department of State contradicted this assessment to justify Cuba’s 
> designation on the terrorist list. [The Cuban Threat to U.S. National 
> Security, 1997, Defense Intelligence Agency, the Southern Command 
> Joint Intelligence Center & Central Intelligence Agency; and Patterns 
> of Global Terrorism: 1999, US Department of State annual report on 
> terrorism]
>
> 2. September 20, 2001 - “President Bush put state supporters of 
> terrorism on notice in his September 20 address to the joint session 
> of Congress: ‘Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to 
> make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.’ The 
> seven designated state sponsors—Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, 
> Syria, and Sudan—clearly heard the President’s message.” [Patterns of 
> Global Terrorism: 2001, US Department of State annual report on 
> terrorism]
>
> 3. May, 2002 - “Beyond the axis of evil, there are other rogue states 
> intent on acquiring weapons of mass destruction -- particularly 
> biological weapons
> namely, Cuba.” John R. Bolton, Under Secretary for Arms Control and 
> International Security stated in an address to the Heritage 
> Foundation. “Here is what we now know: The United States believes that 
> Cuba has at least a limited offensive biological warfare research and 
> development effort. Cuba has provided dual-use biotechnology to other 
> rogue states.” [BBC News, Analysis: Axis of Evil Capabilities, May 9, 
> 2002]
>
> 4. April, 2003 - U.S. Ambassador to the Dominican Republic, Hans 
> Hertell: "The war in Iraq was aimed at all countries around the world 
> with oppressive political systems. I think what's happening in Iraq is 
> going to send a very positive signal, and it's a very good example for 
> Cuba
> " [Commondreams, Strategic Manipulation of the “War on Terror” 
> Apparent in U.S. Treatment of Cuba, by Alana Y. Price Sept 23,2004]
>
> 5. April 2003 – “ Secretary of Defense “Donald Rumsfeld did not 
> totally close the door to the possibility of U.S. military action in 
> Cuba --indicating it might happen if Havana has or develops weapons of 
> mass destruction. While there is no specific evidence, the Bush 
> administration said last year that it believed Cuba has ‘at least a 
> limited offensive biological warfare’ program and could be sharing its 
> expertise with other countries that are hostile to the United States.” 
> [The Miami Herald, After Iraq, Cuba not next on U.S. list, Rumsfeld 
> says, by Elaine de Valle, April 14, 2003]
>
> 6. May, 2003 - “The mass expulsion of Cuban diplomats is among the 
> most sweeping ever undertaken by Washington in a long history of 
> tit-for-tat ousters.” [New York Times, 14 May 03]
>
> 7. May, 2003 - Dagoberto Rodriguez, chief of the Cuban Interest 
> Section in Washington, DC stated that “Cuba was warned, officially, 
> that a new wave of illegal immigration would be considered ‘an act of 
> war’. This he fears may then be used as a pretext for US 
> intervention.” [Guardian Unlimited Friday May 16, 2003]
>
> 8. January, 2004 - . " ‘The United States is willing to reconsider the 
> scheduling of the next round of migration talks when Cuba informs us 
> that it agrees to a productive agenda
> ’ spokesman Richard Boucher said. The [Cuban] ministry accused the 
> United States of unilaterally canceling the talks. Cuba said it was 
> willing to "seriously" discuss all issues raised by US authorities. 
> [Caribbean Net News- www.caribbeannetnews.com, US says Cuba to blame 
> for cancellation of immigration talks, Thursday, January 8, 2004]
>
> 9. March, 2004 – “Charges of drug trafficking: Cuban territorial 
> waters and airspace continue to serve as an inviting corridor for 
> smugglers transiting from South America and the Caribbean to the U.S., 
> Mexico, Haiti, and the Bahamas. The country's geographic proximity to 
> the U.S.,... provide a favorable environment for both air and maritime 
> smuggling...Cuban authorities have chosen not to provide an effective 
> use of force policy and adequate resources to counter-narcotics 
> authorities ....” International Narcotics Control Strategy Report - 
> 2003, Released by the Bureau for International Narcotics and Law 
> Enforcement Affairs, March 2004
>
> 10. May, 2004 - Commission Report blatantly recommends that $56 
> million be allocated to “regime change” in Cuba
>
> 11. June, 2004 – Office of Foreign Assets Contol (OFAC) severely 
> restricts family remittances and travel to Cuba, thus tightening the 
> pressure on the Cuba economy.
>
> 12. July 2004 - Bush accuses Fidel Castro of promoting prostitution: 
> “The dictator welcomes sex tourism. Here's how he bragged about the 
> industry," Bush said. "This is his quote: ‘Cuba has the cleanest and 
> most educated prostitutes in the world’.” [statement lifted from an 
> undergraduate paper by Charles Trumbull written in 2001]
>
> Charles Trumbull, when asked by AP, stated that the statement was 
> taken out of context: " Even when Castro made the remarks, ...he was 
> not boasting about Cuba's prostitutes as sex workers. Castro was 
> merely trying to emphasize some of the successes of the revolution by 
> saying 'even our prostitutes are educated....." (The Associated Press, 
> Bush accuses Cuba's Castro of encouraging sex-tourism industry, USA 
> Today, July18,2004)
>
> 13. August, 2004 – “The US Air National Guard took the first Comando 
> Solo flight hovering on the boundary of US airspace, broadcasting to 
> the Cuban people.” TV and Radio Marti have been broadcasting anti- 
> Castro propaganda to Cuba since 1985. Funding comes from the 
> Broadcasting Board Governors. The signal has been jammed since the 
> early 1990’s.” [Miami Herald Sun, Aug. 22, 2004]
>
> Mandate of the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba
>
> President George W. Bush mandated that the Commission for Assistance 
> to a Free Cuba identify additional means by which the United States 
> can help the Cuban people bring about an expeditious end to the Castro 
> dictatorship. [CAFC: 14]
>
> The Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba sought a more proactive, 
> integrated, and disciplined approach to undermine the survival 
> strategies of the Castro regime. [CAFC: 15]
>
> The Steps for Hastening Regime Change
>
> This comprehensive framework is composed of six inter-related tasks 
> considered central to hastening change: [CAFC: 15]
>
> 1. Empower Cuban Civil Society [CAFC: 15] – Promote Dissidence
>
> $36 million to the State Department, USAID, and other appropriate U.S. 
> Government agencies [CAFC: 22]:
> · We propose...to strengthen
> opposition through material assistance and training.[CAFC: 7]
> · Information dissemination that will foster democratic change [CAFC: 
> 17]
> · The United States Interests Section (USINT) in Havana is also a 
> vital asset in the effort to aid the Cuban people in their struggle 
> [CAFC: 17]
>
>
> the regime portrays (youth, women, and Afro-Cubans) as pillars of 
> social support and stability for Castro’s regime. [CAFC: 18] The US 
> will
> fund programs to train, develop and organize these...segments of Cuban 
> society to take greater action [CAFC: xvii]
>
> Outreach to Cuban youth represents one of the most significant 
> opportunities to hasten the end of the regime. More than half of 
> Cuba’s population is under age 35
> youth have been critical catalysts for regime change in other 
> countries...[CAFC: 18]
>
> Afro Cubans and mixed-ethnicity Cubans comprise 62% of the population. 
> [CAFC: 18] grants of U.S. funds could provide the critical spark to 
> activate more of the Afro Cuban community in promoting change in Cuba. 
> [CAFC: 19]... persons of color currently occupy only 33 percent of the 
> seats
> . in the National Assembly of People’s Power... [CAFC: 19] Currently 
> in the US Senate there are NO African- Americans www.senate.gov/ and 
> in 2002 the House had only 15% minorities in total. [Office of 
> minority Health, US Census 2000; www.house.gov/barrett/abouthor.htm,] 
> According to the 2000 U.S. Census, approximately 30% of the population 
> belongs to a racial or ethnic minority group. 
> [www.cdc.gov/omh/Populations/populations.htm. ]
>
> 2. Break the Information Blockade [CAFC: 8] - Intimidate
>
> $18 million for
> immediate deployment of the C-130 COMMANDO SOLO airborne platform and 
> make available funds to acquire and refit a dedicated airborne 
> platform for the transmission of Radio and Television Martí into Cuba 
> [CAFC: 28]
>
> “The right of each government to control telecommunications in its 
> territory is confirmed in the 1982 Nairobi Convention of the United 
> Nations International Telecommunications Union (ITU), which was signed 
> by both Cuba and the United States.” 
> [www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/dfat/treaties/1984/35.html]
>
> “August 14, 2004 The US Air National Guard took the first Comando Solo 
> flight hovering on the boundary of US airspace, broadcasting to the 
> Cuban people.” TV and Radio Marti have been broadcasting anti- Castro 
> propaganda to Cuba since 1985. Funding comes from the Broadcasting 
> Board Governors. The signal has been jammed since the early 1990’s.” 
> [Miami Herald Sun, Aug. 22, 2004]
>
> “1995-6 continual breaches of Cuban airspace by anti-Castro Miami 
> Cubans resulted in the shooting down of 2 planes, 4 deaths, the 
> imprisonment of five Cubans in the US, and the tightening of the US 
> blockade against Cuba;” [www.cnn.com/US/9602/cuba_shootdown/25/10am/]
>
> “There are different types of C-130s. The EC-130 (Comando SOLO) is 
> electronically equipped. The AC-130 is armed with devastating 
> firepower; it is one of the most terrifying weapons being used on 
> Iraq. Cubans could never be sure that the EC-130 would not turn out to 
> be an AC- 130. This serious provocation could lead to disaster.” 
> [Building a Prison and Preaching Democracy: Bush’s Cuba Obsession, 
> Jane Franklin; [ZNet,June 07, 2004: 
> www.zmag.org/content/print_article.]
>
> “These [AC-130] heavily armed aircraft incorporate side-firing weapons 
> integrated with sophisticated sensor, navigation and fire control 
> systems to provide surgical firepower or area saturation during 
> extended loiter periods, at night and in adverse weather...” [Air 
> Force Link fact sheet: www.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet]
>
> 3. Deny Revenues To The Castro Regime [CACF 28] - Strangle the Economy
>
> The economic lifelines of the Castro regime are tourism, access to 
> subsidized Venezuelan oil, commodities, and revenues and other support 
> generated by those with family on the island, with the vast majority 
> of such support coming from the United States. [CACF: xiv]
>
> a) Tourism
>
> · Eliminate abuses of educational travel by limiting it to 
> undergraduate or graduate degree granting institutions and for 
> full-semester study programs, or shorter duration only when the 
> program directly supports U.S. policy goals;
>
> · Support efforts by NGOs in selected third countries to highlight 
> human rights abuses in Cuba, as part of a broader effort to discourage 
> tourist travel.
>
> · Eliminate the regulatory provision allowing for the import of $100 
> worth of Cuban goods produced by Cuban state entities, including 
> cigars and rum;
> · Eliminate the general license provision for amateur or 
> semi-professional athletic teams to travel to Cuba to engage in 
> competitions and require that all such travel be specifically 
> licensed.
> · Eliminate the specific license provision for travel related to 
> clinics and workshops in Cuba, leaving general and specific license 
> categories for professional research and attendance at professional 
> meetings unchanged.
>
> b) Venezuelan oil
>
> · While the CACF goes into great detail on how the other “Revenue” 
> categories will be addressed, the report strangely gives NO indication 
> of the strategy to be used to thwart Venezuelan oil sales to Cuba. 
> However, looking into Cuba/Venezuela relations and US/Venezuela 
> relations, one can see the only path to cutting this oil source is to 
> oust Chavez.
>
> · The US has been accused of supporting the April 2002 coup attempt 
> against Chavez. The US was the only American country to recognize the 
> new leadership and claim that Chavez had resigned; the US media 
> parroted this line [ Fair & Accuracy in Reporting: Media Advisory, 
> April 18, 2002: 
> http://www.fair.org/press-releases/venezuela-editorials.html], the NED 
> financially supports the Venezuelan opposition [Venezuela Freedom of 
> Information Act www.venezuelafoia.info], and continues to demonize the 
> government by accusing them of human trafficking, arms piling, and 
> relationships with Colombian Guerrillas.
>
> · In this report, the US questions Chavez commitment to democracy: “
> governments that are not ideologically committed to democratic and 
> free market values (e.g., the Chavez government in Venezuela).” [CAFC: 
> 205]
>
> · Reports from Venezuela also indicate that Cuban doctors are engaging 
> in overt political activities...as well as more senior political and 
> military advisors to help Chavez strengthen his authoritarian grip on 
> the nation. [CAFC: 43]
>
> · While the US media focuses on the Oil convention between Venezuela 
> and Cuba claiming that its purpose is to prop up the current Cuban 
> government,( “...53,000 barrels of oil per day that Chavez subsidizes 
> for Castro to keep Cuba's moribund economy on life support.” [Will 
> Venezuelan Freedom Survive Chavez? Jonathan Gurwitz, Arizona Daily 
> Star 08.20.2004 
> http://www.dailystar.com/dailystar/relatedarticles/35056.php]) it 
> ignores the fact that the Chavez government is offering the same oil 
> “deal” to all members of the Association of Caribbean States through 
> the San Jose Pact and the Caracas Accord. In addition, a separate 
> accord has been reached with Argentina that exchanges oil for food. 
> [Venezuela Promotes Regional Energy Integration For Developing Nations 
> of Central America and the Caribbean, Venezuela Information Office 
> www.veninfo.org]
>
> c) Commodities
>
> · Neutralize Cuban government front companies by establishing a Cuban 
> Asset Targeting Group, comprised of appropriate law enforcement 
> authorities, to investigate and identify new ways in which hard 
> currency is moved in and out of Cuba. [CAFC: 44]
>
> · and revenues and other support generated by those with family on the 
> island, with the vast majority of such support coming from the United 
> States. [CAFC: xiv]
>
> · Offer rewards to those who report on illegal remittances that lead 
> to enforcement actions
> Direct U.S. law enforcement authorities to conduct “sting” operations 
> against “mule” networks and others who illegally carry money to Cuba 
> as a means to disrupt and discourage the sending of illegal 
> remittances. [CAFC: xvii]
>
> d) Family travel and Remittances
>
> · The Commission reduces income from tourism by restricting family 
> visits by Cuban-Americans, educational tours and professional travel. 
> [see “Tightening Travel Restrictions”, appendix 2]
>
> · Remittances, gift parcels and travel-related revenues especially 
> (from) those Cubans who have come to the United States since the early 
> 1990s. [CAFC: 9] ...such parcels decrease the pressure on the 
> government to provide the basic needs of its people, enabling it to 
> dedicate more resources to strengthening its repressive apparatus... 
> [CACF: 35]
>
> · These restrictions are being challenged by Congress. An excerpt from 
> a statement in opposition to continued funding for enforcement of the 
> travel ban by Congressman Jeff Flake (Rep AZ), "With this bill today, 
> and in other bills this year, we will appropriate tens of millions of 
> dollars relating to Cuba. It is fitting that we ask, for what purpose? 
> So that think tanks in Miami can churn out more reports telling the 
> Congress, unsurprisingly, that we ought to continue the current 
> policy, which includes giving them money? So that daily television 
> programs can be produced in Miami that Cubans will never see?” [Jeff 
> Flake, Office of Congressman Jeff Flake News Release, Wednesday, 
> September 15, 2004, www.house.gov/flake/]
>
> · For current status of legislation in congress, see Latin American 
> Working Group; www.lawg.org]
>
> 4. Illuminate The Reality Of Castro’s Cuba [CAFC :44] – Accuse of 
> Military Threat
>
> We propose increased efforts to illuminate the reality of Castro’s 
> Cuba...and (exposing) the nature of the Castro regime, including its 
> threat potential. [CAFC: 10]
>
> Fund U.S. Embassy public diplomacy sections worldwide to disseminate 
> information abroad about U.S. foreign policy
> .and the U.S. Government’s belief that Cuba has at least a limited, 
> developmental offensive biological weapons research and development 
> effort. [CAFC: 45]
>
> WASHINGTON, Sept. 17 - The Bush administration, using stringent 
> standards adopted after the failure to find banned weapons in Iraq, 
> has conducted a new assessment of Cuba's biological weapons capacity 
> and concluded that it is no longer clear that Cuba has an active, 
> offensive bio-weapons program, according to administration officials. 
> [In Stricter Study, U.S. Scales Back Claim on Cuba Arms, By Steven R. 
> Weisman; New York Times, September 18, 2004,]
>
> 5. Encourage International Diplomatic Efforts To...Challenge The 
> Castro Regime [CAFC :10] - Demonize
>
> Recognizing the importance of an enhanced public diplomacy effort, the 
> Commission recommends that the U.S. Government make available an 
> additional $5 million [CAFC: 45] in order to:
>
>
> expanding coordination with willing friends and allies...encourage
> international initiatives to plan for Cuba’s transition. [CACF: 10]
>
> Fund and promote international or third-country national conferences 
> to disseminate information abroad about U.S. policies on transition 
> planning efforts related to Cuba [CAFC: 45]
>
> Deter foreign investment in Cuba in confiscated properties, claims to 
> which are owned by U.S. nationals, aggressively pursue Title IV visa 
> sanctions against those foreign nationals trafficking in (e.g., using 
> or benefiting from) such property, including devoting additional 
> personnel and resources to application and enforcement. [CAFC: 44]
>
> 6. Undermine The Regime’s “Succession Strategy” [CAFC: 11] - Occupy
>
> In Cuba’s transition to democracy, we envision and welcome an active 
> role for the Cuban American community
> Cuban Americans will be able to provide valuable insights, as well as 
> business acumen and capital. [Foreword by Secretary of State Colin L. 
> Powell]
>
> United States is prohibited by law from providing assistance to a 
> post-Castro transition government unless that government... bars Fidel 
> and Raul Castro from any role in a future government. [Foreword by 
> Secretary of State Colin L. Powell]
>
> The Commission recommends: targeting regime officials for U.S. visa 
> denials...visa denial watchlists will be provided to other nations
> to ensure that (these officials) cannot find refuge in these regions. 
> [CACF: 11] ...establishing a Transition Coordinator at the State 
> Department to
> continue regular transition planning and coordination with other U.S. 
> Government agencies. [CAFC: 11]
>
> The Commission acknowledges that there will be resistance to the 
> transition
> a peaceful transition...will therefore require the presence of 
> effective, professional Cuban security institutions that are committed 
> fully to supporting the democratic transition. Military modernization 
> will also be important. [CACF: 157] prepare to keep all schools open 
> during an emergency phase of the transition in order to keep teenagers 
> off the streets during this unstable period; [CACF: xxi]
>
> Recommended Resources
>
> 1. Regarding the democratic process in Cuba:
>
> Governance in Cuba; chap 2, Cuba: a Revolution in Motion, Isaac Saney. 
> 2004, Zed Books, London, N1 9JF, United Kingdom ISBN 1 84277 363 1
>
> Democracy for Cubans and Americans; Tom Crumpacker, CounterPunch, 
> 1/20/2003; http://yahoo.groups.com/group/cubastudy
>
> 2. Regarding human rights in Cuba:
>
> Amnesty International Regional Report; Americas, (an overview putting 
> Cuba within a context of the Americas) 
> http://web.amnesty.org/report2004/2am-index-eng
>
> Cuba and Its Defence of All Human Rights; Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 
> Republic of Cuba. October 26, 2004. 
> http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/WO0410/S00296.htm
>
> 3. Regarding Cuba as a threat to national security:
>
> Cuba on the Terrorist List: in defense of the nation or domestic 
> political calculation?, Anya K. Landau and Wayne S. Smith. 
> International Policy Report: November 2002
>
> John Pateman
> Cuban Libraries Solidarity Group
> 15 February 2005
>
>
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Al Kagan
African Studies Bibliogrpaher and Professor of Library Administration
University of Illinois Library
1408 W. Gregory Drive
Urbana, IL 61801

tel. 217-333-6519
fax 217-333-2214
akagan at uiuc.edu
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