[Peace-discuss] Re: [cu_citizens] 2nd annual state-mandated traffic stop report

[John W.]

I've already lectured you privately, Brian, with regard to caution when 
using statistics.  :-)  I see where, according to Karen Medina, AWARE's 
Anti-Racism Working Group is supposed to be meeting tonight.  The Champaign 
City Council chambers might be an appropriate alternative meeting place 
this evening.  :-)

**********

AWARE events this week:

Working Group for student involvement
Monday, August 14, 7pm
2109 Zuppke, Urbana

Anti-Racism Working Group
Tuesday, August 15, 7pm
505 Lousiana, Champaign

Church Presence Working Group
Wednesday, August 16, 7pm
at the Kruse's

Hummus making at the Mosque
Friday, August 18, 4pm

**********

John Wason



At 08:36 AM 8/15/2006, Brian Dolinar wrote:

>Yes, we should make this explicit before the city council.
>Blacks are over twice as likely to be pulled over by police than whites.
>
>The disparity index of 1.63 means that miorities are 63% more likely
>to be stopped.
>
>A 1 to 1 ratio would be absolutely fair and that should be the goal of
>our police depts.
>
>These recent numbers are completely skewed (and screwed) and way above
>the state averages of 1.12 - 1.25.
>
>Anybody else willing to go to city council tonight?
>I know there is also an AWARE meeting
>but I think me and one other CUPJ person should go
>to the city council mtg - maybe CHRIS??
>
>BD
>
>
>On 8/14/06, John W. <jbw292002 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > At 06:45 PM 8/14/2006, Randall Cotton wrote:
> >
> > >The News-Gazette article below shows a small improvement in Champaign 
> during
> > >2005 vs 2004.
> > >
> > >I discovered, though, with a little math, that a minority motorist's 
> chances of
> > >being stopped by the cops in Champaign is still about twice that of a 
> white
> > >motorist. That statistic is cleverly concealed in the numbers cited in the
> > >article (I'm not sure if they're similarly concealed in the state-mandated
> > >report on which the article is based - I couldn't find the actual 
> report on the
> > >web, though I looked a bit).
> > >
> > >In the article, it says:
> > >40% of traffic stops were of minorities (so 60% are white), AND
> > >the minority driving population is 25% of drivers (so 75% are white)
> > >
> > >Now, let's say there were about 10,000 traffic stops last year (not 
> too far from
> > >the actual number, but the number you use here doesn't really matter - 
> I'm just
> > >picking one for illustration).
> > >
> > >That means:
> > >4,000 minority traffic stops and 6,000 white traffic stops.
> > >
> > >Now, there are 3 times as many white drivers as there are minority 
> drivers (75%
> > >vs 25% as stated in the article). If you were to somehow triple the 
> number of
> > >minority drivers in Champaign (so that there would be just as many 
> minority
> > >drivers as white drivers), then the minority traffic stops would 
> triple too. So
> > >you'd have:
> > >
> > >12,000 minority traffic stops and 6,000 white traffic stops.
> > >
> > >That is, if the minority population were the same as the white population,
> > >minorities would get pulled over twice as often. Another way of saying 
> the same
> > >thing is that in Champaign, if you are a minority driver, you are twice as
> > >likely to get pulled over in a traffic stop.
> > >
> > >R
> >
> > Another way of stating it would be that if there were 6,000 traffic stops
> > of Caucasians last year, one would EXPECT there to be only 2,000 stops of
> > minorities, given their percentage of the population.  So again, minorities
> > were twice as likely to be stopped as one would expect if there were no
> > racial/ethnic profiling at work.
> >
> > So I wonder where they came up with this "disparity index" of 1.63?
> >
> > The average person doesn't understand percentages and statistics very
> > well.  It would be helpful if the newspaper put the statistics in a form
> > that the average person can readily understand.
> >
> > John Wason
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > >Champaign police's minority pullover rate above state average
> > >By Mike Monson
> > >Monday August 14, 2006
> > >
> > >CHAMPAIGN - Champaign police continue to stop minorities in traffic at 
> a rate
> > >higher than the statewide average, but the percentage of black 
> motorists stopped
> > >declined slightly during 2005.
> > >
> > >Those are among the facts in the city police department's 2005 traffic 
> stop
> > >report, which is mandated under state law and submitted to the Illinois
> > >Department of Transportation. This is the second year the report has been
> > >conducted.
> > >
> > >The Champaign City Council will discuss the report in study session 
> Tuesday
> > >night following the regular council meeting. The council meets at 7 
> p.m. at the
> > >Champaign City Building, 102 N. Neil St.
> > >
> > >The report shows there were 10,575 traffic stops in 2005, a 10.6 percent
> > >increase over the previous year. Having more officers on duty during peak
> > >driving periods is probably responsible for the additional tickets, 
> according to
> > >the study.
> > >
> > >Forty percent of the city's traffic stops were minorities, with black 
> drivers
> > >making up 30 percent of the traffic stops; Asians, 6 percent; and 
> Hispanics, 4
> > >percent. Census data from 2000 indicates that the city's minority driving
> > >population is 24.6 percent. In last year's report, 42 percent of all 
> traffic
> > >stops were minorities and 33 percent were black drivers.
> > >
> > >The report shows that for equipment violations, blacks are about 15 
> percent more
> > >likely to get a ticket, instead of a written warning, than are white 
> drivers.
> > >Blacks are 14 percent more likely than whites to get a ticket instead of a
> > >warning for driver's license violations.
> > >
> > >Overall, blacks are more likely to be stopped for equipment 
> violations, which
> > >the report said might be due to economic factors. Police department senior
> > >command is considering eliminating citations for some categories of 
> equipment
> > >violations as a result, the report said.
> > >
> > >Champaign's traffic stop ratio, also known as a disparity index, 
> dropped from
> > >1.71 to 1.63. That indicates that minority drivers are 63 percent more 
> likely to
> > >be stopped by police in Champaign than the minority driving population 
> would
> > >indicate.
> > >
> > >The statewide average ratio was 1.12. Statewide, 64 percent of all police
> > >agencies had a ratio of less than 1.25.
> > >
> > >Urbana's ratio for 2005 is 1.44. Minorities made up 44 percent of all 
> traffic
> > >stops in Urbana. Census data indicates that minorities make up about 
> 30 percent
> > >of Urbana's driving population.
> > >
> > >Find this article at:
> > >http://www.news-gazette.com/news/2006/08/14/champaign_polices_minority_ 
> pullover_rate_above_state_average
>
>
>--
>Brian Dolinar, Ph.D.
>303 W. Locust St.
>Urbana, IL 61801
>briandolinar at gmail.com