[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, August 23, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
August 23, 2006

In this issue:
U.S. Politics
1) Clinton Rival Tries to Make Most of Liberal Anger
2) Lieberman and Lamont Tied in Connecticut
Lebanon
3) Relief Agencies Find Hezbollah Hard to Avoid
4) Italy urges EU to join Lebanon UN force
5) Violence Tests Israel-Lebanon Cease-Fire
6) Lebanon's Month-Old Oil Slick Sinks
7) Lebanese soldiers die clearing Israeli shells
8) What's in a Name? Not, It Seems, a Leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon
9) Israel accused over 'war crimes' - Amnesty
Iran
10) Iran Sanctions Could Fracture Coalition
11) Iran Won't Give Promise to End Uranium Effort
12) U.S. Weighs Response to Iran Proposal
13) Russia, China Back Iran Calls for Talks
14) Iran Pushes For Talks Without Conditions
15) Bush Ensured Iran Offer Would Be Rejected
16) Trita Parsi and James Walsh on Iran's Response to the P5+1 Proposal
Iraq
17) Poll Shows a Shift in Opinion on Iraq War
18) Marine Reservists Facing Combat Duty
19) Number of U.S. Troops in Iraq Climbs
Afghanistan
20) Nation Faltering, Afghans' Leader Draws Criticism
Israel-Palestine
21) Israel Delays West Bank Pullout

Contents:
U.S. Politics
1) Clinton Rival Tries to Make Most of Liberal Anger
Patrick Healy, New York Times, August 23, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/nyregion/23challenger.html
As Ned Lamont basks in Connecticut victory, another antiwar underdog
is trying to assume the same role of political giant-killer in Sept.
12 elections in New York, against much bigger prey: Hillary Clinton.
But Jonathan Tasini is struggling on a shoestring campaign to rise
above his 12 percent standing in the polls, even as he hawks a message
of anger over Iraq to an electorate that is more liberal than
Connecticut's. Tasini's positions on the Iraq war, the death penalty
and gay marriage are in step with the progressive groups and liberal
bloggers that contributed volunteers, money and buzz to Lamont. Yet
some of these partisans say they are deeply reluctant, and in some
cases scared, to criticize or abandon Mrs. Clinton, who supported the
invasion of Iraq. They cite her power in the Democratic Party and her
careful positioning that has made her, if not antiwar, then a sharp
critic of the administration's handling of Iraq, Hurricane Katrina and
the economy. A former union leader, Tasini has stirred some enthusiasm
among voters - even young women, who are the Clinton core - and he is
increasingly well received by liberal audiences, based on interviews
with voters and time spent watching him work crowds.

2) Lieberman and Lamont Tied in Connecticut
American Research Group, August 22, 2006
http://americanresearchgroup.com/ctsenate/
Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont are in a statistical tie in the race for
United States Senate in Connecticut according to the latest survey
from the American Research Group. Among likely voters in November, 44%
say they would vote for Lieberman, 42% say they would vote for Lamont,
3% say they would vote for Alan Schlesinger, and 11% are undecided.

Lebanon
3) Relief Agencies Find Hezbollah Hard to Avoid
Robert F. Worth And Hassan M. Fattah, New York Times, August 23, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/world/middleeast/23lebanon.html
Like all international relief agencies here that receive financing
from the US government, Mercy Corps is barred from giving money or aid
through Hezbollah, which is labeled a terrorist organization by the
US. But as with all the most demolished areas in southern Lebanon,
where whole villages have been flattened by Israeli bombs and there is
no food, water or electricity, this village is the domain of
Hezbollah, and little seems to bypass the group. That fact is
nettlesome for the US, not merely because it does not want Hezbollah
to be strengthened even further after its war with Israel, but because
it is eager to find and support a viable alternative to the group.
That will not be easy. Hezbollah has been the fastest and, without a
doubt, most effective organization doling out aid to the shattered
towns and villages of southern Lebanon. Aid groups like Mercy Corps,
which generally work through local intermediaries, have sometimes
struggled to find other ways of helping, and even then, they cannot be
sure their aid is not going through Hezbollah. "You can make a
separation between what we do and Hezbollah," said Khiam's deputy
mayor, Muhammed Abdullah, who is organizing the local efforts,
including donations of food and water from Mercy. "But of course there
is coordination." On his desk is a paperweight with the logo of
"Construction Jihad," Hezbollah's building company, and in his
anteroom are two posters of Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah
leader. Though Hezbollah is only one of many groups providing social
services in Lebanon, its reputation for delivering those services
honestly is unmatched, making it that much harder to circumvent.

4) Italy urges EU to join Lebanon UN force
Mark John, Reuters, Wednesday, August 23, 2006; 11:12 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082300778.html
Italy pressed fellow EU states Wednesday to support its pledge of
troops by sending soldiers to join a U.N. peacekeeping force in
Lebanon. Rome has said it could provide as many as 3,000 troops of a
European contingent of anything up to 9,000. The U.N. has authorized a
force of 15,000 and is concerned that hostilities could reignite if
deployment is delayed. French sources did not rule out further
reinforcements being sent once the rules of engagement were set."We
never said this was our last word," one French source said of their
pledge of 200 troops. "We hope to get enough clarification to see how
we can make further reinforcements." According to a U.N. document
obtained by Reuters, new rules of engagement for the U.N. troops
permit soldiers to shoot in self-defense, use force to protect
civilians and resist armed attempts to interfere with their duties.

5) Violence Tests Israel-Lebanon Cease-Fire
Associated Press, August 23, 2006, Filed at 12:05 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Lebanon-Israel.html
Syria's president said he would consider the deployment of
international troops along the Lebanon-Syria border a ''hostile''
move. Israel's foreign minister called the situation in Lebanon
''explosive'' and urged the international community to work quickly to
deploy peacekeeping troops. Lebanese Prime Minister Saniora urged the
US to help end Israel's sea and air blockade, and said his country was
making ''every effort'' to secure its borders. French Foreign Minister
Philippe Douste-Blazy renewed his calls for Israel to lift its air and
sea blockade on Lebanon. ''If Lebanon is going to be reconstructed, if
Lebanon is going to take off economically, the blockade must be
lifted,'' he said. Israeli Prime Minister Olmert said the blockade
would continue until an international force was deployed, a process
that would likely take weeks or months.

6) Lebanon's Month-Old Oil Slick Sinks
Lauren Frayer, Associated Press, Wednesday, August 23, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0823-06.htm
An oil slick caused by Israeli bombing has begun sinking to the floor
of the Mediterranean, blanketing marine life with sludge, according to
a Greenpeace video that shows dead fish along the sea bottom. The
scuba diver's videotape, released Tuesday by Greenpeace, graphically
details some of the environmental destruction a month after the oil
spill began sinking, creating what has been called Lebanon's
worst-ever environmental disaster. The U.N. has said the spill could
take as long as a year to clean up and cost $64 million.

7) Lebanese soldiers die clearing Israeli shells
Laila Bassam, Reuters, Wednesday, August 23, 2006; 11:14 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082300281.html
Three Lebanese soldiers were killed Wednesday while clearing
unexploded Israeli shells in southern Lebanon, underscoring the
dangers of a region awaiting the deployment of thousands of U.N.
peacekeepers. The three men were the first Lebanese troops to die
since the army began moving south Thursday to bolster a U.N.-backed
truce. If and when extra U.N. troops arrive, they will find a
landscape littered with unexploded Israeli ordnance. A U.N. demining
expert told Reuters Tuesday the Israelis had dropped cluster bombs on
at least 170 sites in the south. An Israeli soldier was killed and
three were wounded on Tuesday when they stepped on Israeli landmines
in the south.

8) What's in a Name? Not, It Seems, a Leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon
John Kifner, New York Times, August 23, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/world/middleeast/23raid.html
Hassan Nasrallah, the name of the leader of Hezbollah, is a pretty
common name in Lebanon. There are 32 Hassan Nasrallahs in the
telephone book. But that is the tip of the iceberg because the book
lists only land lines, which hardly anyone in this cellphone-crazed
country uses anymore. So perhaps it is not surprising that even
Israel's elite commando unit became confused. It staged a raid on the
Hezbollah stronghold in Baalbek in the early morning darkness of Aug.
2, killing at least 10 people and carrying off five suspected
guerrillas captured in a house. But the house belonged to Hassan
Nasrallah the plasterer rather than Hassan Nasrallah the Hezbollah
leader. Israel released all five captives overnight.

9) Israel accused over 'war crimes' - Amnesty
BBC News, Wednesday, 23 August 2006, 00:52 GMT 01:52 UK
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5276626.stm
Amnesty International has accused Israel of committing war crimes by
deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure in Lebanon. The human
rights group says attacks on homes, bridges, roads and water and fuel
plants were an "integral part" of Israel's strategy in the recent war.
The group calls for a UN investigation into whether both Israel and
Hezbollah broke humanitarian law. In a report released Wednesday,
Amnesty International bases its accusations on an examination of
Israeli attacks and comments made by Israeli officials during the
conflict.

Iran
10) Iran Sanctions Could Fracture Coalition
Helene Cooper, New York Times, August 23, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/world/middleeast/23diplo.html
Iran's leaders did not agree to suspend enrichment of uranium, the
central demand of the coalition. The question is whether Rice can keep
the coalition together use sticks against Iran. The entire UN Security
Council is supposed to vote on the sanctions package. While only
permanent members can veto, the rising fear among European diplomats
is that smaller countries on the Council are so angry over how the US
and France have handled the Lebanon crisis that they will give Russia
and China political cover to balk against imposing tough sanctions.
"The Lebanese situation has caused a lot of bad faith and I think that
will play into this," said one European diplomat. Russia and China
have deep economic interests in Iran and dislike the blunt instrument
of sanctions. And for the West, any sanctions levied that could
actually hurt Iran - its energy sector - would ratchet up already high
global oil prices. Bush administration officials have said Rice
received assurances in June that Russia would, at a minimum, sign on
to a first phase of weak sanctions if Iran refused to suspend uranium
enrichment. Those sanctions would most likely include a ban on travel
by Iranian officials and curbs on imports of nuclear-related
technology. US officials portray their coalition as united. A senior
Bush administration official said, "I don't think there's any question
that there will be a resolution on sanctions." But the initial
sanctions will undoubtedly be too weak to be effective, said some
diplomats, who also predicted trouble if the US tried to prod Russia
and China to take aim at Iran's energy sector.  And if Iran has indeed
held out the possibility of having talks about suspending uranium
enrichment, as some reports indicated, that could further fracture the
coalition. Smaller Council members are suffering from enforcement
fatigue, analysts said, made worse by the specter of figuring out how
to implement the Council's resolution calling for a cease-fire in
Lebanon.

11) Iran Won't Give Promise to End Uranium Effort
Michael Slackman, New York Times, August 23, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/world/middleeast/23iran.html
Tehran - Nasser Hadian, a political science professor at Tehran
University, said that if the proposal offers concrete details to
ensure that Iran does not divert enriched uranium to a weapons program
- steps like intrusive inspections and real-time monitoring of the
nuclear facilities with cameras - it is possible that Iran will win
some more support from Russia and China. Iran has already begun to
brace for sanctions, calculating that an initial round would be
relatively painless. But if the screws tighten, analysts here said,
they expect the leadership to look for a face-saving compromise. Iran
sits on some of the largest known oil reserves, but is forced to
import more than 40 percent of its gasoline because it does not have
the refinery capacity to meet its own needs. Sanctions that block
gasoline imports would be extremely painful, analysts here said.

12) U.S. Weighs Response to Iran Proposal
Associated Press, August 23, 2006, Filed at 11:09 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-US-Iran.html
The Bush administration is taking its time responding to a mixed
message from Iran that offers negotiations on its nuclear program but
resists suspension of uranium enrichment. A White House spokeswoman
said the Iranian response was getting careful consideration and review
''as it deserves.'' By not flatly rejecting the proposal the
administration indicated there may be a basis for dealing with
concerns that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. The House
Intelligence Committee issued a report that concluded Iran was a
strategic threat and a country focused on developing nuclear weapons
capability. The report also found gaps in the ability of U.S.
intelligence agencies to keep up with developments in Iran's nuclear
program and suggested hiring more intelligence agents who speak Farsi.

13) Russia, China Back Iran Calls for Talks
Associated Press, August 23, 2006, Filed at 10:45 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Nuclear.html
Iran urged Europe on Wednesday to pay attention to what it called
''positive'' signals in its counterproposal to a nuclear incentives
package aimed at persuading Tehran to roll back its nuclear program.
Russia and China backed Iran's call for negotiations to end the
standoff. French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said ''the
door is still open'' for negotiations but only if Iran suspends
uranium enrichment first, a step Tehran appears reluctant to agree to.
The initial comments made clear the US is likely to face difficulty
getting Russia and China to agree to any tough sanctions against Iran.
Iran said Tuesday it was ready for ''serious negotiations'' on its
nuclear program and cast its counterproposal as a new formula to
resolve the crisis. The Iranian offer appeared aimed at enticing
European countries and China and Russia into further negotiations by
offering a broad set of proposals vague enough to hold out the hope of
progress.

14) Iran Pushes For Talks Without Conditions
U.N. Demand for Freeze On Nuclear Work Rejected
Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, Wednesday, August 23, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/22/AR2006082200367.html
Iran offered yesterday to enter into immediate and "serious"
negotiations on a broad range of issues with the Bush administration
and its European allies but refused a U.N. Security Council demand to
suspend work at nuclear facilities by the end of the month. Bush
administration officials said they will need time to study the Iranian
response, but vowed to press efforts to impose economic sanctions
against Iran if it fails to meet the deadline to freeze its nuclear
program. European officials were quieter, saying privately that they
did not want to rush toward sanctions before the deadline. U.S.
diplomats at the UN tried to organize a meeting today, but European
officials said they have no plans to attend. The EU's foreign policy
chief, Javier Solana, is expected to meet with Iran's chief
negotiator, Ali Larijani, this week. The Iranian response comes at a
difficult time, when Iran is feeling emboldened in the region and the
Security Council is juggling a multitude of crises in the Middle East,
including the Iraq war and recent fighting in southern Lebanon. The
instability has made many council members wary of ratcheting up
pressure on Iran, a major oil supplier, if it will mean further
confrontation in the region. Privately, several officials said Iran
was willing to consider halting its nuclear program, but not as a
precondition for talks. One Iranian official said suspension could
come quickly if talks can begin and Iran can get answers to a list of
questions included in the offer yesterday. Several officials said Iran
wants a clarification about security assurances, namely whether the
Bush administration intended to negotiate on the nuclear issue while
seeking to topple the country's religious leadership.

15) Bush Ensured Iran Offer Would Be Rejected
Gareth Porter, Inter Press Service, Wednesday, August 23, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0823-03.htm
Even before Iran gave its formal counter-offer to ambassadors of the
P5+1 countries Tuesday, the Bush administration had already begun
organising sanctions against Iran. Thus ends what appeared on the
surface to be a genuine multilateral initiative for negotiations with
Iran on its nuclear program. But the history of that P5+1 proposal
shows that the Bush administration was determined from the beginning
that it would fail, so that it could bring to a halt a multilateral
diplomacy. Britain, France and Germany had concluded early on that
Iran's security concerns would be central to any agreement. The Nov.
2004 agreement between the EU and Iran included an assurance that the
"long-term agreement" they pledged to reach would "provide...firm
commitments on security issues." The European three tried in vain to
get the Bush administration to support their diplomatic efforts with
Tehran by authorising the inclusion of security guarantees. The
European three and the Bush administration agreed that the P5+1
proposal would demand that Iran make three concessions to avoid
Security Council sanctions and to begin negotiations on an agreement
with positive incentives: the indefinite suspension of its enrichment
programme, agreement to resolve all the outstanding concerns of the
IAEA, and resumption of full implementation of the Additional
Protocol, which calls for very tight monitoring of all suspected
nuclear sites by the IAEA. That meant that Tehran would have to give
up its major bargaining chips before the negotiations even began.
[Former UN chief weapons inspector Hans Blix made this same point
yesterday in a BBC interview - JFP.]

16) Trita Parsi and James Walsh on Iran's Response to the P5+1 Proposal
http://irannuclearwatch.blogspot.com/
http://www.freeconference.com/Recordings/ConferenceRecording-3239347-774599.mp3
On August 22, Iran formally responded with a 21 page memo to a
proposal from the P5+1 seeking to resolve the dispute over the
country's nuclear program. The above link contains an MP3 recording of
the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation's press conference
with experts Dr. Trita Parsi and Dr. James Walsh.

Iraq
17) Poll Shows a Shift in Opinion on Iraq War
Carl Hulse And Marjorie Connelly, New York Times, August 23, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/washington/23poll.html
Americans increasingly see the war in Iraq as distinct from the fight
against terrorism, and nearly half believe President Bush has focused
too much on Iraq to the exclusion of other threats, according to the
latest New York Times/CBS News poll. The poll found that 51 percent
saw no link between the war in Iraq and the broader antiterror effort,
a jump of 10 percentage points since June. The rising skepticism could
present a political obstacle for Bush and his allies on Capitol Hill,
who are making their record on terrorism a central element of the
midterm election campaign. The Republicans hope that by expressing a
desire for forceful action against terrorists, they can offset unease
with the Iraq war and blunt the political appeal of Democratic calls
to establish a timeline to withdraw American troops. Public sentiment
about the war remains negative, threatening to erode a Republican
advantage on national security. Fifty-three percent said going to war
was a mistake, up from 48 percent in July; 62 percent said events were
going "somewhat or very badly" in the effort to bring order and
stability to Iraq. Voters in the poll indicated a strong preference
for Democratic candidates this fall.

18) Marine Reservists Facing Combat Duty
With Volunteers Lagging, as Many as 2,500 to Be Called Up for Afghanistan, Iraq
Josh White, Washington Post, Wednesday, August 23, 2006; A10
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/22/AR2006082201080.html
The Marine Corps is planning to call up as many as 2,500 Marine
reservists for combat duty in Iraq and Afghanistan, dipping into a
rarely used pool of troops to fill growing personnel gaps in units
scheduled to deploy in coming months. It is the first time the Marines
have resorted to involuntary call-ups since the initial invasion of
Iraq in March 2003, when about 2,000 Marines were ordered into service
for a short duration. It means thousands of Marines across the country
who have left active service could soon be forced to return.

19) Number of U.S. Troops in Iraq Climbs
Lolita C. Baldor, Associated Press, Wednesday, August 23, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0823-01.htm
The number of U.S. troops in Iraq has climbed back to 138,000, driven
up in part by the need to control the escalating violence in Baghdad
and the decision to delay the departure of an Alaska-based Army
brigade.Troop levels in Iraq had been declining, from about 138,000
for much of last year to a low of about 127,000 earlier this summer,
amid growing calls from Congress and the public for a phased
withdrawal. Part of the latest increase is due to the overlap of units
that are currently moving in and out of Iraq. But much of it comes
from the decision late last month to delay the departure of the 172nd
Stryker Brigade for four months. The brigade had served its one-year
deployment and was beginning to head home to Alaska, but was instead
ordered into Baghdad.

Afghanistan
20) Nation Faltering, Afghans' Leader Draws Criticism
Carlotta Gall, New York Times, August 23, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/world/asia/23karzai.html
After months of widespread frustration with corruption, the economy
and a lack of justice and security, doubts about President Hamid
Karzai of Afghanistan, and by extension the American effort to rebuild
that nation, have led to a crisis of confidence. Interviews with
ordinary Afghans, foreign diplomats and Afghan officials make it clear
that the expanding Taliban insurgency represents the most serious
challenge to his presidency to date. The insurgency and other issues
have brought an eruption of doubts about Karzai, widely viewed as
having failed to attend to a range of problems. Corruption is so
widespread, the government apparently so lethargic and the divide
between rich and poor so gaping that Karzai is losing public support,
warn officials like Ahmad Fahim Hakim, deputy chairman of the Afghan
Independent Human Rights Commission. "Nothing that he promised has
materialized," Hakim said, echoing the comments of diplomats and
others in Kabul, the capital. "Beneath the surface, it is boiling."

Israel-Palestine
21) Israel Delays West Bank Pullout
Doug Struck, Washington Post, Wednesday, August 23, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/22/AR2006082201088.html
The Israeli government's plan to dismantle some Jewish settlements in
the West Bank and redraw the country's borders is being shelved at
least temporarily, a casualty of the war in Lebanon, government
officials said. The plan, which propelled Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
to victory in March elections and was warmly endorsed by President
Bush as a way of solving Israel's conflict with the Palestinians, is
no longer a top priority, Olmert told his ministers last weekend.
Instead, the government must spend its money and efforts in northern
Israel to repair the damage from the war and strengthen the area in
case fighting breaks out again, Olmert said. Even without the
financial considerations, the plan for unilateral withdrawal from some
settlements is dead, other political figures and analysts said. The
seizure of Israeli soldiers and the renewed fighting in the Gaza Strip
- from which Israel withdrew last year - and in southern Lebanon -from
which Israel withdrew in 2000 - have left the Israeli public with
little appetite for additional pullouts. "It's not operative or
realistically possible today," said Dan Schueftan, deputy director of
national security studies at the University of Haifa and a proponent
of the plan. But he predicted that "inevitably, we will have to come
back to it."

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Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org