[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, August 24, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News (text only version)
August 24, 2006

In this issue:
Iran
1) Some in G.O.P. Say Iran Threat Is Played Down
2) U.S. Spy Agencies Criticized on Iran
3) U.S. Says Iranian Nuclear Proposal Is Inadequate
Iraq
4) Is the Next Step a Draft?
5) Bush's Iraq Argument: It Could Be Worse
6) Marine Called Haditha Shootings Appropriate
7) Six Questions for Michael Scheuer on National Security
Lebanon
8) Human Rights Group Accuses Israel of War Crimes
9) France to Send More Troops to Lebanon, Minister Says
10) Lebanese Premier Seeks U.S. Help in Lifting Blockade: Israeli
Restrictions Impede Commerce
11) Negotiations Preceded Attack On Convoy of Fleeing Lebanese
Israel
12) Good Morning, Elijahu!
Palestine
13) Reporters' Kidnappers Denounced in Gaza
Mexico
14) Violent Civil Unrest Tightens Hold on a Mexican City

Contents:
Iran
1) Some in G.O.P. Say Iran Threat Is Played Down
Mark Mazzetti, New York Times, August 24, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/24/washington/24intel.html
Some senior Bush administration officials and top Republican lawmakers
are voicing anger that American spy agencies have not issued more
ominous warnings about the threats Iran presents to the US. Some have
accused intelligence agencies of playing down Iran's role in
Hezbollah's recent attacks against Israel and overestimating the time
it would take for Iran to build a nuclear weapon. The complaints
surfaced in a Congressional report released Wednesday. They echo
tensions that divided the administration and the CIA before the war in
Iraq. The criticisms reflect the views of officials in the White House
and the Pentagon who advocated war with Iraq and now are pressing for
confronting Iran directly over its nuclear program and ties to
terrorism. The dissonance is surfacing as the intelligence agencies
are overhauling procedures to prevent a repeat of the 2002 National
Intelligence Estimate, the faulty assessment that in part set the US
on the path to war with Iraq. Several intelligence officials said that
American spy agencies had made assessments in recent weeks that
despite established ties between Iran and Hezbollah and a
well-documented history of Iran arming the organization, there was no
credible evidence to suggest either that Iran ordered the Hezbollah
raid that touched off the recent fighting or that Iran was directly
controlling attacks against Israel. "There are no provable signs of
Iranian direction on the ground," said one intelligence official.
"Nobody should think that Hezbollah is a remote-controlled entity."
American military assessments have broadly echoed this view. (The
report: http://intelligence.house.gov/media/pdfs/iranreport082206v2.pdf.)

2) U.S. Spy Agencies Criticized on Iran
GOP-Led Panel Faults Intelligence
Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, Thursday, August 24, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301309.html
A key House committee issued a stinging critique of U.S. intelligence
on Iran yesterday, charging that the CIA and other agencies lack "the
ability to acquire essential information necessary to make judgments"
on Tehran's nuclear program, its intentions or even its ties to
terrorism. The 29-page report, principally written by a Republican
staff member on the House intelligence committee who holds a hard-line
view on Iran, fully backs the White House position that the Islamic
republic is moving forward with a nuclear weapons program and that it
poses a significant danger to the United States. But it chides the
intelligence community for not providing enough direct evidence to
support that assertion. The report relies exclusively on publicly
available documents. Its authors did not interview intelligence
officials. Still, it warns the intelligence community to avoid the
mistakes made regarding weapons of mass destruction before the Iraq
war, noting that Iran could easily be engaged in "a denial and
deception campaign to exaggerate progress on its nuclear program as
Saddam Hussein apparently did concerning his WMD programs." "We want
to avoid another 'slam dunk,' " Rep. Peter Hoekstra said yesterday,
explaining why the staff report was made public before it had been
approved by the full committee. Former CIA director George Tenet had
called prewar intelligence on banned weapons a "slam dunk," but no
such arms were ever found.

3) U.S. Says Iranian Nuclear Proposal Is Inadequate
Helene Cooper, New York Times, August 24, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/24/world/middleeast/24diplo.html
The US, in its first formal reaction after Iran's counteroffer to an
incentives proposal to quit its nuclear program, said Iran's position
"falls short" of UN demands. A State Department statement said the US
was "consulting closely" with members of the UN Security Council over
next steps. "We acknowledge that Iran considers its response as a
serious offer, and we will review it," said the statement. Bush
administration officials are pushing their European, Russian and
Chinese counterparts to impose sanctions on Iran at the end of the
month, after a Security Council deadline for Iran to suspend
enrichment expires. But Russia and China, which have deep economic
ties with Iran, have resisted any move to penalize the country
severely. On Wednesday, those two countries again urged the Europeans
and Americans to respond with caution.

Iraq
4) Is the Next Step a Draft?
http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2006/08/is_the_next_ste.html
An Iraq veterans group says the call-up of thousands of Marines from
the Individual Ready Reserve is "one of the last steps before
resorting to a draft." "This move should serve as a wake-up call to
America," said Jon Soltz, who was an Army captain in Iraq and heads
the group VoteVets.org, which raises funds for Iraq and Afghanistan
veterans running for Congress.  "Today's announcement that thousands
of Marines in the Individual Ready Reserve will be called back to go
to Iraq is proof that our military is overextended, and there is no
plan for victory in Iraq." While the Pentagon has maintained the armed
forces have met recruiting and retention goals, Soltz says, "Today's
actions speak louder than words." The IRR are reservists, who have
returned to civilian life, don't drill regularly and prior to the Iraq
war were rarely called to active duty.

5) Bush's Iraq Argument: It Could Be Worse
Peter Baker, Washington Post, Thursday, August 24, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301878.html
For three years, the president tried to reassure Americans that more
progress was being made in Iraq than they realized. But with Iraq
either in civil war or on the brink of it, Bush dropped the
unseen-progress argument in favor of the contention that things could
be even worse. The shifting rhetoric reflected a broader pessimism
that has reached into even some of the most optimistic corners of the
administration -- a sense that the Iraq venture has taken a dark turn
and will not be resolved anytime soon. Bush advisers once believed
that if they met certain benchmarks, such as building a constitutional
democracy and training a new Iraqi army, the war would be won. Now
they believe they have more or less met those goals, yet the war rages
on. While still committed to the venture, officials have privately
told friends and associates outside government that they have grown
discouraged in recent months. But with crucial midterm elections just
2 1/2 months away, Bush and his team are trying to turn the public
debate away from whether the Iraq invasion has worked out to what
would happen if U.S. troops were withdrawn, as some Democrats
advocate. Christopher Gelpi, a Duke University scholar whose research
on public opinion in wartime has been influential in the White House,
said Bush has little choice. "He looks foolish and not credible if he
says, 'We're making progress in Iraq,' " Gelpi said. "I think he
probably would like to make that argument, but because that's not
credible given the facts on the ground, this is the fallback. . . . If
the only thing you can say is 'Yes, it's bad, but it could be worse,'
that really is a last-ditch argument."

6) Marine Called Haditha Shootings Appropriate
Josh White, Washington Post, Thursday, August 24, 2006; A17
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301829.html
A sergeant who examined the scene hours after Marines killed two dozen
Iraqis in Haditha last year said the shootings appeared to be an
appropriate response to a coordinated insurgent attack, according to a
sworn statement obtained by The Washington Post. Sgt. J.M. Laughner
went from house to house in Haditha on Nov. 19, 2005, and acknowledged
finding two dozen bodies, including some of women and small children.
But Laughner said the scenes of the slayings appeared to match the
version of events the Marine squad provided that day and did not seem
especially out of the ordinary, according to a transcript of
Laughner's interview with military investigators in March. Laughner's
account supports the argument made by some Marines in Kilo Company,
3rd Battalion, 1st Marines -- that they believed they were following
their rules of engagement when they opened fire on groups of people
inside at least three homes after a roadside bomb killed a member of
their unit.

7) Six Questions for Michael Scheuer on National Security
Ken Silverstein, Harpers.org, Wednesday, August 23, 2006
http://harpers.org/sb-seven-michael-scheuer-1156277744.html
Michael Scheuer served in the CIA for 22 years before resigning in
2004; he served as the chief of the bin Laden unit at the
Counterterrorist Center from 1996 to 1999.
1:  Is the country safer or more vulnerable to terrorism? MS: More vulnerable.
2:  Is Al Qaeda stronger or weaker than it was five years ago? MS: The
quality of its leadership is not as high, because we've killed and
captured so many. But they have succession planning that works very
well.
3: Why hasn't there been an attack on the US for the past five years?
MS: They're not ready. They put more emphasis on success than speed,
and the next attack has to be bigger than 9/11. They could shoot up a
mall if that's what they wanted to do. But the world is going their
way. We've lost some 3,000 soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan. We've
spent billions on those wars. There are more people willing to take up
arms against the United States; we have less ability to win hearts and
minds in the Arab world. If you're bin Laden, those things are part of
the war and those things are going your way.
4: Has the war in Iraq helped or hurt in the fight against terrorism?
MS: It broke the back of our counterterrorism program. Iraq was the
perfect execution of a war that demanded jihad to oppose it. You had
an infidel power invading and occupying a Muslim country and it was
perceived to be unprovoked. The war has validated everything bin Laden
said: the US will destroy any strong government in the Arab world, it
will occupy Muslim holy places, it will seize Arab oil. Al Qaeda has
said that it requires safe havens: it couldn't get involved with large
numbers in the Balkans war because it had no safe haven in the region.
Now they have a safe haven in Iraq, which is so big and is going to be
so unsettled for so long.
5. Things seemed to have turned for the worse in Afghanistan. MS: The
President was sold a bill of goods by George Tenet and the CIA: a few
dozen intel guys, a few hundred Special Forces, and truckloads of
money could win the day. In the end, we'll lose and leave. The idea
that we can control Afghanistan with 22,000 soldiers, most of whom are
indifferent to the task, is far-fetched. The Soviets couldn't do it
with 150,000 soldiers and utter brutality.
6. Has the war in Lebanon also been a plus for the jihadists? MS: Yes.
The Israel-Hezbollah battle validates bin Laden. It showed that the
Arab regimes can't protect their own nationals. It also showed that
the Americans will let Israel do whatever it wants.
7. What needs to be done? MS: We need to acknowledge that we are at
war, not because of who we are, but because of what we do. We have a
dozen years of reliable polling in the Middle East, and it shows
overwhelming hostility to our policies, and at the same time it shows
majorities that admire the way we live, our ability to feed and clothe
our children and find work. We need to tell the truth to set the stage
for a discussion of our foreign policy. We need to create a situation
where moderate Muslims can express support for the US without being
laughed off the block.

Lebanon
8) Human Rights Group Accuses Israel of War Crimes
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/24/world/middleeast/24lebanon.html
John Kifner, New York Times, August 24, 2006
Amnesty International accused Israel on Wednesday of war crimes in its
monthlong war in Lebanon, saying its bombing campaign amounted to
indiscriminate attacks on Lebanon's civilian infrastructure and
population. "Many of the violations examined in this report are war
crimes that give rise to individual criminal responsibility," Amnesty
said in its report. "They include directly attacking civilian objects
and carrying out indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks." "During
more than four weeks of ground and aerial bombardment by the Israeli
armed forces, the country's infrastructure suffered destruction on a
catastrophic scale," the report said, contending this was "an integral
part of the military strategy."

9) France to Send More Troops to Lebanon, Minister Says
Craig S. Smith, New York Times, August 24, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/24/world/middleeast/24force.html
France told Israel Wednesday it would increase its commitment of
troops to a multinational peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon in
the coming days, as Syria warned that the positioning of a
multinational force near its border would be seen as a "hostile
position." The French foreign minister said that French president
Chirac would announce a larger troop commitment as early as Friday.
Last week, the UN circulated proposed rules of engagement that would
allow the troops to use "deadly force" in self-defense, while
protecting civilians or in support of the Lebanese Army's efforts to
keep arms from entering Lebanon from Syria. Some Europeans worry those
rules could draw the force into the conflict by aligning it with
Israel, which wants the force to police Lebanon's border with Syria,
the route by which most of Hezbollah's weapons have been delivered in
the past. Israel has said that it will not lift its blockade until the
multinational force has been deployed at Lebanon's airports and along
the Syrian border. Lebanon regards the continuing blockade as a
violation of the cease-fire agreement.

10) Lebanese Premier Seeks U.S. Help in Lifting Blockade: Israeli
Restrictions Impede Commerce
Edward Cody, Washington Post, Thursday, August 24, 2006; A14
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301671.html
Prime Minister Siniora said Wednesday he has asked the US for help in
getting Israel to lift the blockade it imposed on Lebanon  Siniora's
appeal reflected growing irritation among Lebanese leaders at
continued restrictions under which the Israeli military controls all
air and sea transport in and out of the country despite the U.N.
cease-fire. The blockade has been particularly painful for Lebanon,
whose economy depends on the free movement of people and goods. Only a
few commercial flights have been permitted to resume from Beirut's
international airport, damaged during the war but now repaired and
ready to resume its role as a Middle East hub. Similarly, the
once-busy Beirut port has been kept under strict controls enforced by
Israeli gunships in the Mediterranean. Dramatizing the anger here,
Labor Minister Tarrad Hamadeh of the Hezbollah party suggested Tuesday
that Arab governments should send their planes and ships toward
Lebanon in defiance of the Israeli blockade. His suggestion was not
taken seriously, but the resentment it portrayed is widely shared in
Siniora's government. Siniora said the US has the power to help
Lebanon get normal transportation going again and suggested the Bush
administration was not providing all the assistance Lebanon needs.

11) Negotiations Preceded Attack On Convoy of Fleeing Lebanese
Israeli Military Places Blame for Killings on U.N. Force
Edward Cody, Washington Post, Thursday, August 24, 2006; A14
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301809.html
"I could never have imagined that there could be an attack on this
convoy of 3,000 civilians, men, women and children," said Karamallah
Daher. But the attack was underway. Before it was over, a half-dozen
missiles had been fired and seven people were killed, including a
retreating Lebanese soldier, a Red Cross volunteer and five other
civilians, and 36 people had been wounded. The Israeli military issued
a statement the next morning saying the column was attacked because of
suspicions -- which the military later acknowledged were baseless --
that the cars were smuggling arms for Hezbollah fighters. The military
said it had received a request for safe passage for the convoy from
the UN but that it had been turned down. Milos Stugar, spokesman for
the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, said that the request was
granted. His statement was confirmed Wednesday by Gen. Alain
Pelligrini, the UNIFIL commander, who said: "We had a green light." In
response to questions from The Washington Post, the Israeli military
put responsibility for the killings on UNIFIL, saying U.N. officials
ignored Israeli orders to prevent the column from moving. The military
"suspected that the vehicles were either returning from a weapons
delivery to Hezbollah terrorists in the south or were fleeing from IDF
forces with their weapons," the statement added. It did not address
the questions of what led the Israeli military to believe the cars
were carrying weapons or how, if a request for safe passage had come
from the UN, the Israeli military could believe it was seeing a
Hezbollah convoy.

Israel
12) Good Morning, Elijahu!
Uri Avnery, Gush Shalom, 23-08-2006
http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery/1156357376
For decades I have warned again and again that the occupation is
corrupting our army. Now the papers are full of learned articles by
respected commentators, who have discovered - surprise! surprise! -
that the occupation has corrupted our army. In such cases we say in
Hebrew: "Good morning, Elijahu!" You have woken up at long last.

Palestine
13) Reporters' Kidnappers Denounced in Gaza
Associated Press, August 24, 2006, Filed at 12:19 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Gaza-Journalists.html
Palestinian officials on Thursday denounced a militant group that has
demanded the release of all Muslims imprisoned by the US in exchange
for two kidnapped Fox journalists. Khaled Abu Hilal, a spokesman for
the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry, said the kidnapping of Fox
correspondent Steve Centanni, of Washington, D.C., and cameraman Olaf
Wiig, of New Zealand, was harming Palestinian interests. ''We were
shocked at their demands because we don't need a new door of hostility
opened with the U.S.,'' he said. The kidnappers released a video
Wednesday showing Centanni and Wiig. The journalists said they were
being treated well, and Wiig called for those working on his behalf to
exert pressure on the Palestinian authorities. In a statement attached
to the video, a previously unknown group calling itself the Holy Jihad
Brigades railed against the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and
characterized them as a war against Islam. It made no demands of
Israel. The kidnappers of Centanni and Wiig demanded that Muslim
prisoners in U.S. jails be released within three days in exchange for
the hostages. Wiig's wife, Anita McNaught, said Thursday that seeing
her husband in the video ''was a source of great relief and comfort.''
Appealing to the kidnappers, she said: ''I don't question that you,
who are holding them, have suffered greatly as everyone in Gaza and
the Palestinian territories is suffering, but these two men are not
responsible for the injustices that you speak of.'' The video marked
the first time militants in Gaza have issued demands beyond the
conflict with Israel. The footage had none of the trappings of locally
produced videos, raising the possibility that foreign extremists may
have taken root in Gaza. Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh
suggested the kidnappers had no ties to any of the Palestinian
militant groups. ''The Palestinian factions are well known,'' he said
after a meeting with Wiig's wife. ''They work ... according to a
Palestinian agenda. Their struggle is with occupation of Palestinian
lands.''

Mexico
14) Violent Civil Unrest Tightens Hold on a Mexican City
James C. McKinley Jr., New York Times, August 24, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/24/world/americas/24mexico.html
For three months, civil unrest has gripped Oaxaca, leaving two people
dead, crippling the tourist industry and shuttering schools. The
original cause of the strife, a teachers' strike for better pay, has
become lost in the escalating violence and the demands of the
protesters, who now insist that Gov. Ulises Ruiz step down. The
teachers' union has been joined by scores of social organizations.
They have shut highways, taken over five radio stations, blocked off
the city's historic square, seized government offices, and barricaded
tourists in their hotels. The state government has lost control of the
center of the city, including its own offices, and is working out of
improvised quarters with cellphones. Though each side has asked for
federal intervention, President Fox has refused to send in troops. He
has dispatched negotiators from the Interior and Labor Ministries, who
have been unsuccessful in resolving the conflict.
Early Tuesday, police officers in a convoy that had been sent to clear
blocked streets opened fire on a radio station that protesters had
seized. An architect who worked for the state was killed. The
protesters seized about a dozen radio stations on Monday afternoon
after unidentified gunmen destroyed the broadcasting equipment of
Channel 9, a public station the strikers and their allies commandeered
early this month to spread their version of events. The state attorney
general said someone had fired at the officers from roofs near the
station, starting the gunfight. But witnesses said the police had
opened fire twice without provocation. "They are the ones who brought
arms, and we had nothing but rocks," said one teacher. "Ruiz talks out
of both sides of his mouth. On the television he calls on us to
negotiate. But in the streets at night, he tries to kill us." On Aug.
10, the husband of a teacher was shot and killed during a march to
support the strike.
A spokesman for Governor Ruiz said the state lacks the money to meet
the teachers' salary demands. The teachers had asked for a pay package
that would have cost $150 million, while the state's final offer in
June was about $8.5 million. The teachers also have asked for
improvements, including new books and more classrooms, for a state
school system that serves hundreds of thousands of students. Ruiz's
aides acknowledged that the government made an enormous error on June
14 when it used force, angering many teachers who were used to an
annual strike and a resulting pay increase.
The city's once-prosperous tourism industry is gasping for air. More
than 1,000 hotel workers have been laid off, and tourists have
canceled reservations well into 2007. The hotel and motel association
estimates that the industry has lost $150 million in the last three
months. [Note that this sum would have paid for the strikers' economic
demands -JFP.] "No one has won anything here," said the president of
the association. The federal government must intervene, he said,
adding, "We are desperate."

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Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org