[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, August 25, 2006

Fri Aug 25 14:41:52 CDT 2006

Just Foreign Policy News
August 25, 2006

Highlights:
The Jerusalem Post suggests that the US will not attack Iran
militarily until 2008, near the end of Bush's term. Connecticut
Republican Rep. Christopher Shays, formerly a supporter of the Iraq
war, now calls for a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops. No
word yet from Vice President Cheney on whether Rep. Shays' call for a
timetable for withdrawal will "embolden al-Qaeda types." Israel says
that countries that don't have diplomatic relations with it shouldn't
be allowed to contribute troops to a UN peacekeeping force. By this
logic, the Lebanese military should also be excluded south of the
Litani river. (Lebanon also does not have diplomatic relations with
Israel.)

Summary:
U.S. Politics
New York Democratic Senate candidate Jonathan Tasini continues to
criticize his opponent, Sen. Hillary Clinton for supporting the Iraq
War, and for refusing to debate him. Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.),
once an ardent supporter of the war in Iraq, said yesterday that the
Bush administration should set a time frame for withdrawing U.S.
troops. He added that most of the withdrawal could take place next
year. A New York man was arrested yesterday on charges that he
conspired to support a terrorist group by providing U.S. residents
with access to Hezbollah's satellite channel, al-Manar. An ACLU
spokeswoman says the prosecution "raises serious First Amendment
concerns."
Iran
Juan Cole says the Republican Congressional report on Iran is "riddled
with errors" and calls the assertion that "Iran is currently enriching
uranium to weapons grade using a 164-machine centrifuge cascade at
this facility in Natanz" an "outright lie." Israel is watching
reaction to Iran's continued refusal to suspend uranium enrichment,
with some high-level officials arguing that Israel "may have to go it
alone," says the Jerusalem Post. US military action would probably not
occur until the spring or summer of 2008, a few months before Bush
leaves office, the Post says. The low-key formal reaction from the US
and its European allies to Iran's refusal to suspend uranium
enrichment is a public relations strategy intended to make the West
appear patient and measured, the New York Times reports. Russia
rejected Friday any talk now of sanctions against Iran and France
warned against conflict with Tehran, raising doubts whether it will
face swift penalties for not halting nuclear work by an August 31
deadline.
Iraq
Iraq's most prominent Shiite religious leader has urged government
ministers and members of Parliament to refrain from taking trips
abroad and to focus on improving the lives of ordinary citizens.
British troops abandoned a major base in southern Iraq on Thursday, a
move that anti-occupation cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called the first
expulsion of U.S.-led coalition forces from an Iraqi urban center.
Lebanon
The State Department is investigating whether Israel's use of
American-made cluster bombs in southern Lebanon violated agreements
with the US that restrict when it can employ such weapons. The
investigation began after reports that three types of American cluster
munitions have been found in many areas of southern Lebanon and were
responsible for civilian casualties. An opinion poll in Israel has
suggested that a majority of Israelis want Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
to resign over the conduct of the recent war in Lebanon. The poll
showed 63% of Israelis saying Olmert should go, and a majority saying
they wanted the defence minister and the military chief of staff to
resign.  Although nearly all of the roughly 900,000 refugees who fled
the monthlong war between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas have
returned, fully a third cannot move back into their family homes, aid
agencies say. The homes are ruined or are too dangerous to inhabit
because of unexploded cluster bombs, which have killed 11 people and
wounded 43 since the cease-fire began.
Afghanistan
Eight civilians, including a child, were killed in an operation by
American forces in eastern Afghanistan on Thursday, an Afghan police
official said. US forces acknowledged killing a child and injuring a
woman but said the seven men also killed were "Qaeda facilitators" who
had opened fire on them as they approached a compound.
Mexico
The Center for Economic and Policy Research says Mexico's handling of
the recount raises questions about the lack of transparency in the
recount and the election. CEPR recently published an analysis of
Mexico's recounted ballots.
In this issue:
U.S. Politics
1) Tasini Tackles Underdog Challenge
2) Shays Urges Iraq Withdrawal
3) New Yorker Arrested for Providing Hezbollah TV Channel
Iran
4) Republican Congressional Report on Iran Riddled With Errors
5) Israel May 'Go it Alone' against Iran
6) In Muted Response to Iran, U.S. and Allies Seek Edge
7) Foes Say Tehran Builds Fast Uranium Centrifuges
8) Russia Rejects Sanctions Against Iran
Iraq
9) Shiite Leader Urges Iraqi Politicians to Stay Home and Work Harder
10) British Leave Iraqi Base; Militia Supporters Jubilant: Some Troops
Will Reposition to Border With Iran
Lebanon
11) Inquiry Opened Into Israeli Use of U.S. Bombs
12) Chirac doubts Lebanon force size
13) Lebanese and Aid Groups Find Dangers in the Rubble
14) France Offers Many More Troops for Lebanon
Afghanistan
15) 8 Killed in Raid by U.S. Forces in Afghanistan
Mexico
16) Was the Mexican Election Stolen? Questions Raised Over Results
>From Preliminary Recount

Contents:
U.S. Politics
1) Tasini Tackles Underdog Challenge
Presses bid to oust Clinton in primary
Mark Sommer, Buffalo News,  Friday, August 25, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0825-03.htm
Jonathan Tasini came to Buffalo Thursday, criticizing Sen. Hillary
Clinton for supporting the Iraq War. The Democrat and labor movement
activist renewed calls for a debate with Clinton. Tasini said he
believes the senator's voting record in support of the war is out of
step with most Democrats in the state. "I believe the war was foolish,
illegal, immoral - it should never have been fought. It cost the lives
of 2,600 wonderful American men and women, tens of thousands of
Iraqis, destroyed a country and probably left us with a legacy of
anger from the Muslim world that could go on for, potentially,
generations," Tasini said. Tasini said he favors legislation in the
House that calls for a "safe and immediate withdrawal of troops," who
would be replaced by an international security force. The
self-described "internationalist" criticized Clinton's support for the
North American Free Trade Agreement, which he said has ravaged upstate
New York. As part of his economic plan, Tasini would push for
single-payer health insurance. Tasini, who led the National Writers
Union for 13 years, was born in the United States. His father was born
in what is now Israel, and his mother fled Poland to escape the
Holocaust. He has criticized Israel's air war in Lebanon as
"disproportionate," a charge leveled Friday by Amnesty International.
"Hillary Clinton is not a friend of Israel. A true friend of Israel
knows when to speak up and say I love you but you're wrong," Tasini
said.

2) Shays Urges Iraq Withdrawal
A Former War Backer, GOP Congressman Calls for Timetable
Anushka Asthana, Washington Post, Friday, August 25, 2006; A03
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/24/AR2006082401631.html
Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), once an ardent supporter of the war
in Iraq, said yesterday that the Bush administration should set a time
frame for withdrawing U.S. troops. He added that most of the
withdrawal could take place next year. Shays, who faces a tough
reelection campaign because of his previous support for President
Bush's war policies, made his comments after completing his 14th trip
to Iraq this week. He said he found a "noticeable lack of political
will" among Iraqis "to move in what I would call a timely fashion" and
concluded that Iraqi officials would act with greater urgency if the
US this fall set a timetable for withdrawal. Diane Farrell, Shays's
Democratic challenger, said: "I think it is unfortunate it took him 14
trips and three years to recognize that Iraq has been in a constant
state of turmoil since the day that Baghdad fell." [The article does
not explore whether Vice President Cheney thinks that Rep. Shays' call
for a timetable for US withdrawal will give comfort to "al-Qaeda
types" -JFP.]

3) New Yorker Arrested for Providing Hezbollah TV Channel
Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Friday, August 25, 2006; A10
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/24/AR2006082401461.html
A New York man was arrested yesterday on charges that he conspired to
support a terrorist group by providing U.S. residents with access to
Hezbollah's satellite channel, al-Manar. Javed Iqbal runs HDTV Corp.,
a company that provides satellite television transmissions to cable
operators, private companies, government organizations and individual
customers. A paid FBI confidential informant told law enforcement
officials in February that Iqbal's company was selling "satellite
television service, including access to al-Manar broadcasts." The
informant then had a recorded conversation during which Iqbal offered
al-Manar broadcasts along with other Arab television stations. The
U.S. Treasury Department in March designated al-Manar a "global
terrorist entity" and a media arm of the Hezbollah terrorist network.
The designation froze al-Manar's assets in the United States and
prohibited any transactions between Americans and al-Manar. Iqbal's
attorney, Mustapha Ndanusa, said yesterday that the accusations
against his client are "completely ridiculous." Ndanusa added that he
is not aware of another instance in which someone was accused of
violating U.S. laws by enabling access to a news outlet. Donna
Lieberman of the ACLU said she is "deeply troubled" that a television
distributor is being prosecuted for the content of a broadcaster. Such
a prosecution, she said, "raises serious First Amendment concerns."
She said she thinks that the law under which Iqbal has been charged
has a First Amendment exception for news communications.

Iran
4) Republican Congressional Report on Iran Riddled With Errors
Juan Cole, Informed Comment, Friday, August 25, 2006
http://www.juancole.com/#115649640863202167
Here is what the professionals are saying about the
Republican-dominated Subcommittee on Intelligence Policy report on
Iran that slams US intelligence professionals for poor intelligence on
Iran: The report demonstrates that these Republicans have poor
intelligence . . . on Iran.  On page 9, the report alleges that "Iran
is currently enriching uranium to weapons grade using a 164-machine
centrifuge cascade at this facility in Natanz." This is an outright
lie. Enriching to weapons grade would require at least 80% enrichment.
Iran claims . . . 2.5 per cent. See how that isn't the same thing? See
how you can't blow up anything with 2.5 percent? The claim is not only
flat wrong, but it is misleading in another way. You need 16,000
centrifuges, hooked up so that they cascade, to make enough enriched
uranium for a bomb in any realistic time fame, even if you know how to
get the 80 percent! Iran has . . . 164. See how that isn't the same?

5)  Israel May 'Go it Alone' against Iran
Herb Keinon, Jerusalem Post, Aug. 24, 2006
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525933028&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Israel is carefully watching the world's reaction to Iran's continued
refusal to suspend uranium enrichment, with some high-level officials
arguing it is now clear that when it comes to stopping Iran, Israel
"may have to go it alone." One senior source said there was a need to
understand that "when push comes to shove," Israel would have to be
prepared to "slow down" the Iranian nuclear threat by itself. Having
said this, he did not rule out the possibility of US military action,
but said that if this were to take place, it would probably not occur
until the spring or summer of 2008, a few months before President
George W. Bush leaves the international stage. The US presidential
elections, which Bush cannot contest because of term limits, are in
November 2008.

6) In Muted Response to Iran, U.S. and Allies Seek Edge
Helene Cooper, New York Times, August 25, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/middleeast/25diplo.html
After demanding for three months that Iran suspend its uranium
enrichment or face penalties, the formal reaction from the US and its
European allies to Iran's refusal to suspend uranium enrichment has
been low-key. It is all about a public relations strategy intended to
make the West appear patient and measured in dealing with the issue,
US and European diplomats say. State Department officials pressed to
"keep the temperature down." They pushed for a concerted media
strategy that would help keep Russia and China on board.  There were
no official mentions of penalties, despite the looming Aug. 31
deadline that six countries have given for Iran to suspend enrichment.
US and European diplomats still plan to pursue penalties if Iran does
not suspend uranium enrichment by the Aug. 31 deadline set by the UN
Security Council. But they do not want to appear trigger happy.  US
officials said Rice received assurances in June that Russia would, at
a minimum, sign on to a first phase of weak sanctions if Iran refused
to suspend uranium enrichment. Those penalties would probably include
a ban on travel by Iranian officials and curbs on imports of
nuclear-related technology. But Russian and Chinese cooperation is by
no means assured. European officials said that the foreign ministers
were not expected seriously to take up the Iran issue until Sept. 1.

7) Foes Say Tehran Builds Fast Uranium Centrifuges
Craig S. Smith, New York Times, August 25, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/middleeast/25nuke.html
An Iranian opposition group said Thursday that Iran had built at least
15 advanced uranium enrichment machines that could speed production of
nuclear fuel and asserted that the country would have hundreds more by
next year. The group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, has
been correct before. In August 2002, its announcement that Tehran was
pursuing a secret uranium enrichment program led in part to the
current standoff over the Iranian nuclear development program. But
many of the group's subsequent disclosures have been either less
significant or wrong.

8) Russia Rejects Sanctions Against Iran
Reuters, August 25, 2006, Filed at 11:50 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran.html
Russia rejected Friday any talk now of sanctions against Iran and
France warned against conflict with Tehran, raising doubts whether it
will face swift penalties for not halting nuclear work by an August 31
deadline. Responding to an offer of economic incentives to stop
enriching uranium, Iran hinted to six world powers on Tuesday it could
rein in its program as a result of talks to implement the package --
but not as a precondition as they demand. " I believe that the
question is not so serious at the moment for the U.N. Security Council
or the group of six to consider any introduction of sanctions,''
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said. "Russia stands for
further political and diplomatic efforts to settle the issue.'' Some
analysts believe Arab and Muslim world anger over Washington's
perceived slowness to curb Israel's anti-Hizbollah blitz, which killed
mainly civilians, could erode support in the 15-member Security
Council for a showdown with Iran. Iran says it wants nuclear energy
solely for its economy. Western leaders suspect a disguised effort to
build atom bombs, although most analysts believe Tehran remains 3-10
years away from mastering the requisite technology. One analyst said
"there will be high-level talks on whether there is some formula
regarding sequencing of suspension'' based on Iran's hint it could
stop enrichment as the upshot of incentives talks. "The question is
whether there is a basis to fudge the sequencing -- that is, Iran
commits to suspension after a very short time period of negotiations."

Iraq
9) Shiite Leader Urges Iraqi Politicians to Stay Home and Work Harder
Paul von Zielbauer, New York Times, August 25, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/middleeast/25baghdad.html
Iraq's most prominent Shiite religious leader has urged government
ministers and members of Parliament to refrain from taking trips
abroad and to focus on improving the lives of ordinary citizens. The
Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who maintains a broad
following of Shiites in Iraq, Iran and other Middle Eastern countries,
asked officials "not to travel abroad and to stay in touch with the
people who elected them," said a spokesman. "We know that there is a
considerable amount of danger in this," he added, referring to the
violence that has plagued Baghdad, "but they have to fully fulfill
their responsibilities."

10) British Leave Iraqi Base; Militia Supporters Jubilant: Some Troops
Will Reposition to Border With Iran
Amit R. Paley, Washington Post, Friday, August 25, 2006; A14
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/24/AR2006082401917.html
British troops abandoned a major base in southern Iraq on Thursday, a
move that anti-occupation cleric Moqtada al-Sadr called the first
expulsion of U.S.-led coalition forces from an Iraqi urban center.
"This is the first Iraqi city that has kicked out the occupier!"
trumpeted a message from Sadr's office that played on car-mounted
speakers. "We have to celebrate this occasion!" Maj. Charlie
Burbridge, a British military spokesman, acknowledged that constant
shelling of the base in Amarah by militia forces were part of the
reason the camp closed. "By no longer presenting a static target, we
reduce the ability of the militias to strike us," he said. But he
rejected Sadr's claim that the British had been defeated. "It's very
difficult to claim a victory without causing significant casualties."
The mood was quite different in Amarah, where jubilant residents
flocked to Sadr's office to offer their congratulations. Drivers in
the street honked their car horns in celebration. Some prepared to
take to the streets to rejoice. "Today is a holiday in our province,"
said an unemployed 45-year-old. He said anger toward the British
reached fever pitch in recent days after soldiers entered a mosque and
arrested several local men. The provincial government is controlled by
Sadr's movement, he said.

Lebanon
11) Inquiry Opened Into Israeli Use of U.S. Bombs
David S. Cloud, New York Times, August 25, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/middleeast/25cluster.html
The State Department is investigating whether Israel's use of
American-made cluster bombs in southern Lebanon violated agreements
with the US that restrict when it can employ such weapons. The
investigation began after reports that three types of American cluster
munitions have been found in many areas of southern Lebanon and were
responsible for civilian casualties. The State Department has held up
a shipment of M-26 artillery rockets, a cluster weapon. The inquiry
will likely focus on whether Israel properly informed the US about its
use of the weapons and whether targets were strictly military. The
agreements that govern Israel's use of American cluster munitions are
said to require that the munitions be used only against organized Arab
armies and clearly defined military targets under conditions similar
to the Arab-Israeli wars of 1967 and 1973. A report by the UN Mine
Action Coordination Center said it had found unexploded bomblets,
including hundreds of American types, in 249 locations south of the
Litani River. Officials say it is unlikely that Israel will be found
to have violated the Arms Export Control Act, which requires foreign
governments that receive American weapons to use them for legitimate
self-defense. Proving that Israel's campaign did not constitute
self-defense would be difficult, especially in view of Bush's public
support. If Israel is found to have violated the classified agreement
covering cluster bombs, it is not clear what actions the US might
take. In 1982, delivery of cluster-bomb shells to Israel was suspended
after the Reagan administration determined that Israel "may" have used
them against civilian areas. But the decision to impose a moratorium
was made under pressure from Congress, which conducted a long
investigation of the issue.

12) Chirac doubts Lebanon force size
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5284284.stm
French President Jacques Chirac has said sending 15,000 peacekeeping
troops to southern Lebanon is "excessive". In related developments: An
opinion poll in Israel has suggested that a majority of Israelis want
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to resign over the conduct of the conflict.
The poll, carried out by the independent Dahaf Institute, showed 63%
of Israelis saying Olmert should go, and a majority saying they wanted
the defence minister and the military chief of staff to resign.

13) Lebanese and Aid Groups Find Dangers in the Rubble
Robert F. Worth And John Kifner, New York Times, August 25, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/middleeast/25lebanon.html
Although nearly all of the roughly 900,000 refugees who fled the
monthlong war between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas have returned,
fully a third cannot move back into their family homes, aid agencies
say. The homes are ruined or are too dangerous to inhabit because of
unexploded cluster bombs, which have killed 11 people and wounded 43
since the cease-fire began 10 days ago. Lebanon, the UN and
independent aid agencies are totaling an enormous tally of damage that
includes airports, ports, water and sewage treatment facilities,
electrical plants, 80 bridges and 94 roads, more than 25 gas stations,
900 other businesses and 30,000 homes or shops. But what surprises
villagers is what they see as mean, gratuitous destruction by Israeli
soldiers still stationed nearby after the cease-fire took effect:
water and electricity systems smashed, furniture and valuables
shattered or burned, cars shot up or destroyed. "They took the imam's
car and returned it completely ruined," said Muhammad Hamoud, the
village mayor. "They want us to be afraid." In Khiam, the Israelis
smashed the water tanks and pipes, said the deputy mayor, Muhammad
Abdullah.

14) France Offers Many More Troops for Lebanon
Craig S. Smith, New York Times, August 25, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/middleeast/25force.html
France pledged Thursday to send a total of 2,000 troops to the UN
multinational peacekeeping force for Lebanon. UN diplomats emphasize
that the multinational force, which the resolution says can be as
large as 15,000 troops, was never intended to be entirely European.
The resolution says only that Europe must form a "credible core" of
the force, and Europeans say they expect their troops to make up about
a third of the total. UN officials say that for all the complaints,
this peacekeeping force is being assembled faster than any in history.
They hope to be able to put 3,000 fresh soldiers on the ground in
Lebanon as early as the end of the month, with the rest of the force
in place by November. France's generals resisted a strong commitment
until they obtained guarantees from the parties to the conflict and
from the UN. Chirac said those guarantees had been given. People
familiar with those clarifications said they included stronger than
usual rules of engagement that would permit the peacekeepers to use
"deadly force" against anyone interfering with their mandate. Chirac
said he had lobbied other heads of state to follow his country's
example in committing troops, and he said several European countries
would do so, together with "important Muslim countries in Asia." The
latter was a reference to Malaysia and Indonesia, which have both
offered significant contributions to the force. But neither has
diplomatic relations with Israel, which has expressed opposition to
the inclusion of such countries in the force. [Note that Lebanon
itself does not have diplomatic relations with Israel, so by this
logic, the Lebanese army should also be excluded from the area south
of the Litani - JFP.]

Afghanistan
15) 8 Killed in Raid by U.S. Forces in Afghanistan
Abdul Waheed Wafa, New York Times, August 25, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/25/world/asia/25afghan.html
Eight civilians, including a child, were killed in an operation by
American forces in eastern Afghanistan on Thursday, an Afghan police
official said. US forces acknowledged killing a child and injuring a
woman but said the seven men also killed were "Qaeda facilitators" who
had opened fire on them as they approached a compound. The Afghan
government has sent a team to investigate the killings, said Abdul
Sabour Allah Yar, deputy police chief of Kunar province. He said the
men killed were elders who had gathered in the house to resolve a
family dispute. Yar said that judging from his own conversation with
American commanders, they had been wrongly informed that the meeting
was a Qaeda gathering. He also said the provincial authorities had not
been told of the operation, something President Hamid Karzai has
repeatedly requested in an effort to avoid civilian casualties.

Mexico
16) Was the Mexican Election Stolen? Questions Raised Over Results
>From Preliminary Recount
Democracy Now, Thursday, August 24th, 2006
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/08/24/1425237
Mark Weisbrot of the Center for Economic and Policy Research's says
Mexico's handling of the recount raises questions about the lack of
transparency in the recount and the election. CEPR recently published
an analysis of Mexico's recounted ballots
(http://www.cepr.net/publications/mexico_recount_2006_08.pdf) that
suggests that the process currently underway will not satisfy concerns
about the legitimacy of the election unless there is a significant
increase in public dislosure.

--------
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org