[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, July 3, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
July 3, 2006

In this issue:
1) Suspending Atomic Work Not on Iran's Agenda: Agency (excerpt)
2) Navy Pledges to Safeguard Hormuz Strait (excerpt)
3) Iran Has Until July 12 to Stop Enrichment (excerpt)
4) Today in History - July 3 (downing of Iran Air jet)
5) Democrats urge broader view of Bush war powers
6) Lieberman stays in race even if loses Dem. primary
7) Pentagon sees Iran bombing as unsuccessful: report
8) Interview with Seymour Hersh on NPR
9) Interview with Seymour Hersh on CNN (excerpt)
10) The military's problem with the President's Iran policy (excerpt)

Summary:

Ali Hosseinitash, a senior Iranian nuclear official, said on Monday
that suspending uranium enrichment was not on Iran's agenda, Reuters
reports. "Iran does not see the issue of suspension as the core idea
in solving the case,'' he added. "We do not intend to answer (at the
July 5 meeting) and our counterparts do not expect an answer either,''
Hosseinitash said. A Western diplomat said earlier that Iran was
unlikely to give a firm answer on July 5 but that if one did not
arrive by July 12, U.N. Security Council action would loom.

The United States would ensure the free flow of oil and trade through
the Strait of Hormuz if passage was threatened, its top navy commander
in the Gulf told Reuters on Monday. Iran has a commanding position on
the Strait, through which 2/5 of globally traded oil passes. Iran's
Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned last month that oil
exports in the Gulf could be jeopardized if Washington made a ``wrong
move'' against Tehran. Any disruption to oil flows through the straits
would likely send crude oil prices soaring. Military analysts have
speculated that if Iran were cornered it might attempt to mine the
Strait of Hormuz and wider Gulf region. Vice Admiral Patrick Walsh,
head of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command.said that would bring a
swift and strong international response.

Western powers will reactivate efforts to punish Iran through possible
U.N. Security Council sanctions unless it suspends uranium enrichment
and agrees to talks on its nuclear program by July 12, diplomats said
Monday, according to the AP. They also claimed Russia and China were
closer than ever to supporting the West on U.N. Security Council
action, including sanctions, if Tehran refuses the package of
incentives meant to wean it off enrichment. A European official
outlined more realistic expectations for the meeting on July 5, saying
Larijani would likely come back with questions -- and perhaps a
counterproposal. If so, the diplomats said, Solana plans to tell him
Iran must accept the terms of the package by July 12, when foreign
ministers of the five permanent Security Council nations and Germany
consult in Paris. ''If Iran has not answered positively by this date,
the ministers will likely adopt a decision to resume negotiations on
the Security Council resolution,'' said one of the diplomats. The
European official said Russia and China were contemplating sending
high-level officials to Wednesday's meeting in a symbolic show of
unity with the West. Work on a U.N. Security Council resolution was
suspended May 3. Possible U.N.-mandated sanctions include a visa ban
on government officials, freezing assets, blocking financial
transactions by government figures and those involved in the country's
nuclear program, an arms embargo and a blockade on the shipping of
refined oil products to Iran.

On this day in 1988, the USS Vincennes shot down an Iran Air jetliner
over the Persian Gulf, killing all 290 people aboard.

Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman, who has angered many Democrats
by his vigorous support for the Iraq war, said on Monday he would run
as an Independent in November if he loses his party's primary on
August 8th.

An article by Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker reports that top
Pentagon officials have told the Bush Administration that bombing
Iranian nuclear facilities would probably fail to destroy that
country's nuclear program. They also warned that any attack could have
"serious economic, political, and military consequences for the United
States."

Articles:
1) Suspending Atomic Work Not on Iran's Agenda: Agency (excerpt)
REUTERS
July 3, 2006
Filed at 9:39 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-nuclear-iran-suspension.html

TEHRAN (Reuters) - A senior Iranian nuclear official said on Monday
that suspending uranium enrichment, as demanded by six world powers in
return for incentives, was not on Iran's agenda, Iran's student news
agency ISNA reported.

Ali Hosseinitash made the comments two days before a meeting between
Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani and European Union
foreign policy chief Javier Solana to discuss the package.

Iranian officials have previously insisted Iran would not suspend the
sensitive atomic work and Hosseinitash's comments suggest a
breakthrough is unlikely.

``Suspension is definitely not on Iran's agenda,'' Hosseinitash, head
of strategic affairs at Iran's Supreme National Security Council, was
quoted as saying.

``Iran does not see the issue of suspension as the core idea in
solving the case,'' he added.


2) Navy Pledges to Safeguard Hormuz Strait (excerpt)
REUTERS
July 3, 2006
Filed at 10:19 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-security-usa-iran.html

LONDON (Reuters) - The United States would ensure the free flow of oil
and trade through the Strait of Hormuz if passage was threatened, its
top navy commander in the Gulf told Reuters on Monday.

Iran has a commanding position on the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic
channel at the mouth of the Gulf that is a conduit for close to
two-fifths of globally traded oil.

``What you are looking for here is confidence and relying on us to
provide clearance of the straits, to ensure the strait remains free,''
Vice Admiral Patrick M. Walsh, in charge of U.S. Naval Forces Central
Command, said in an interview.

``I can offer you our unequivocal commitment that that is our goal,
that that's our job,'' he said, speaking by telephone from Manama,
Bahrain.


3) Iran Has Until July 12 to Stop Enrichment (excerpt)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
July 3, 2006
Filed at 2:34 p.m. ET
 http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Nuclear.html

VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Western powers will reactivate efforts to
punish Iran through possible U.N. Security Council sanctions unless it
suspends uranium enrichment and agrees to talks on its nuclear program
by July 12, diplomats said Monday.

The envoys -- some of them senior U.N. diplomats, and all familiar
with details of the six-nation drive to persuade Iran to compromise on
its nuclear activities -- spoke just two days before a key
Iran-European Union meeting in Brussels meant to make clear to the
Iranians that their time is running out.

On Wednesday, senior EU envoy Javier Solana will urge top Iranian
nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani to commit his country immediately to
suspending enrichment and starting negotiations, the diplomats said.

They also said Russia and China were closer than ever to supporting
the West on U.N. Security Council action -- including sanctions -- if
Tehran refuses the package of incentives meant to wean it off
enrichment.

''We are looking forward to hear from Iran ... the official
response,'' said Cristina Gallach, Solana's spokeswoman.

A European official outlined more realistic expectations, saying
Larijani would likely come back with questions -- and perhaps a
counterproposal.

If so, the diplomats said, Solana plans to tell him Iran must accept
the terms of the package by July 12, when foreign ministers of the
five permanent Security Council nations and Germany consult in Paris.


4) Today in History - July 3
ASSOCIATED PRESS
July 3, 2006
Filed at 10:25 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-History.html

In 1988, the USS Vincennes shot down an Iran Air jetliner over the
Persian Gulf, killing all 290 people aboard.

5) Democrats urge broader view of Bush war powers
Reuters
Monday, July 3, 2006; 3:13 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senior Democrats called on Sunday for a broader
review of whether President George W. Bush had overstepped his war
powers after the Supreme Court struck down his administration's
Guantanamo military tribunals. Seeking to capitalize on the sharpest
judicial rebuke yet of Bush's tactics in the war on terrorism,
Democratic critics said the ruling opens the door for a closer look at
complaints he had improperly bypassed Congress in other areas as well.

6) Lieberman stays in race even if loses Dem. primary

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, the
Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2000 who ran afoul of many
party members over Iraq, said on Monday he would run in November even
if he loses his party's primary. Lieberman, 64, has been facing a
growing challenge for the Democratic nomination in Connecticut because
of his support for President George W. Bush and the Iraq war.

7) Pentagon sees Iran bombing as unsuccessful: report

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Top Pentagon officers have told the Bush
administration that bombing Iranian nuclear facilities would probably
fail to destroy that country's nuclear program, the New Yorker
magazine reported on Sunday. The senior commanders also warned that
any attack launched if diplomacy fails to end the standoff over Iran's
nuclear ambitions could have "serious economic, political, and
military consequences for the United States," the article said, citing
unidentified U.S. military officials.

8) Interview with Seymour Hersh on NPR
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5528057

9) Interview with Seymour Hersh on CNN (excerpt)
 LATE EDITION     CNN
11:00 AM                                                  JULY 2, 2006

Interview with Seymour Hersh


ROBERTS: So the president, whenever he's asked, says the military option is
on the table. But in your new article, you're saying military planners have
got a problem with that.

HERSH: You bet. One of the real problems, the underlying problem is simply
this, that our government, our allies in Europe, even the Israelis have not
been able to come up with any specific evidence that the Iranians are doing
what everybody thinks they're doing: running a secret program to make
weapons. There's no parallel program. There's no sites. There's no evidence
that they're doing anything other than what they say they're doing.

ROBERTS: Let me quote from your article, if I could. You say, "The generals
and admirals have told the administration that the bombing campaign will
probably not succeed in destroying Iran's nuclear program. A crucial issue
in the military's dissent, the officers said, is the fact that American and
European intelligence agencies have not found specific evidence of
clandestine activities or hidden facilities. The war planners are not sure
what to hit."

So here we are, three years after the Iraq war. The intelligence gap
remains.

HERSH: Son of Iraq. So you have to say, once again, you know, is there --
the problem the military has, and the reason why there's a fight, is the Air
Force, of course, has been tasked by the president, by the national command
authorities, to come up with a decisive plan for bombing. And they have a
huge plan. We're going to hit, you know, 1,000 aiming points, or whatever.

There's a lot of specific plans, but it's a pretty intensive bombardment.
And the other services are saying, whoa, what do we have here? We don't know
what to bomb. There's no evidence that these guys are doing anything. The
only sites we know that are nuclear are the sites that have already been
declared by Iran to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the monitoring
agency in Vienna. So the only thing we know is what's publicly known.


10) The military's problem with the President's Iran policy (excerpt)

LAST STAND
SEYMOUR M. HERSH
The military's problem with the President's Iran policy.
New Yorker
Issue of 2006-07-10
Posted 2006-07-03
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060710fa_fact


On May 31st, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced what
appeared to be a major change in U.S. foreign policy. The Bush
Administration, she said, would be willing to join Russia, China, and
its European allies in direct talks with Iran about its nuclear
program. There was a condition, however: the negotiations would not
begin until, as the President put it in a June 19th speech at the U.S.
Merchant Marine Academy, "the Iranian regime fully and verifiably
suspends its uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities." Iran,
which has insisted on its right to enrich uranium, was being asked to
concede the main point of the negotiations before they started. The
question was whether the Administration expected the Iranians to
agree, or was laying the diplomatic groundwork for future military
action. In his speech, Bush also talked about "freedom for the Iranian
people," and he added, "Iran's leaders have a clear choice." There was
an unspoken threat: the U.S. Strategic Command, supported by the Air
Force, has been drawing up plans, at the President's direction, for a
major bombing campaign in Iran.

Inside the Pentagon, senior commanders have increasingly challenged
the President's plans, according to active-duty and retired officers
and officials. The generals and admirals have told the Administration
that the bombing campaign will probably not succeed in destroying
Iran's nuclear program. They have also warned that an attack could
lead to serious economic, political, and military consequences for the
United States.

A crucial issue in the military's dissent, the officers said, is the
fact that American and European intelligence agencies have not found
specific evidence of clandestine activities or hidden facilities; the
war planners are not sure what to hit. "The target array in Iran is
huge, but it's amorphous," a high-ranking general told me. "The
question we face is, When does innocent infrastructure evolve into
something nefarious?" The high-ranking general added that the
military's experience in Iraq, where intelligence on weapons of mass
destruction was deeply flawed, has affected its approach to Iran. "We
built this big monster with Iraq, and there was nothing there. This is
son of Iraq," he said.

"There is a war about the war going on inside the building," a
Pentagon consultant said. "If we go, we have to find something."



--
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org