[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News - July 10, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
July 10, 2006

In this issue:
1) Oil Eases Under $74 Ahead of Iranian Nuclear Talks
2) U.S. Standoffs With Iran, N.Korea Continue
3) Bush to Meet With German Chancellor Thurs.
4) Oil Prices Fall Below $74 a Barrel
5) Iran Bars Visits by U.N. Nuclear Inspector Critical of Its Government
6) Bush's Shift: Being Patient With Foes
7) Iran Asks IAEA to Remove Chief Inspector
8) N. Korea Crisis Hurts Unity on Iran Nukes
9) General Faults Marine Response to Iraq Killings
10) 50,000 Dead, But Who's Counting?
11) Mexican Courts Decide if Calderon Winner
12) A Recount in Mexico
13) Don't Take the High Road
14) Contender Alleges Mexico Vote Was Rigged
15) Leftist Predicts Unrest Without Complete Recount of Mexican Election

Summary:
Oil edged below $74 a barrel on Monday, extending the previous
session's 1.4 percent fall led by reduced tension over Iran's nuclear
program after Iran's top nuclear negotiator expressed optimism that
the standoff can be resolved peacefully. Oil in New York is up over 20
percent this year because of the Iranian dispute, supply cuts in
Nigeria and a flood of investment fund money into commodities.
Adjusted for inflation, oil is more expensive than at any time since
1980, the year after the Iranian Revolution. Prices have also been
supported by resilient demand. NYMEX gasoline fell 0.89 percent to
$2.2195 a gallon.

Iran's nuclear program is expected to be a key topic in Thursday's
visit of President Bush to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Anti-war
activists in Germany are gearing up to protest Bush's visit, much as
they did during his two previous trips to the country. One of Bush's
stops will be the northern coastal city of Stralsund, where the local
chapter of Germany's Social Democratic party has proclaimed that the
president is not welcome.

Tehran warned the Group of Eight Sunday against making any decisions
on Iran's nuclear program without consulting it first. "Any (G-8)
summit decision on Iran -- if premature and incomplete -- could harm
the current positive trend of negotiations," Iranian Foreign Minister
Manouchehr Mottaki said. "The G-8 summit won't be comprehensive
without Iran's participation and opinion."

Iran has asked the International Atomic Energy Agency to remove the
head of the inspection team probing Tehran's nuclear program and
barred him from visiting the country, officials and a diplomat said
Sunday. The German newspaper Welt am Sonntag reported Sunday that the
inspector, Chris Charlier, had been removed from his post and assigned
to other duties. Some officials said that he is still head of the
team. Charlier was reported as saying that he had not been allowed
into Iran for several months. Charlier was also quoted as saying he
believes Iran is operating a clandestine nuclear program and suggested
it was linked to weapons. Last year in a BBC documentary he complained
about the lack of freedom inspectors faced in Iran. "Whatever we say,
whatever we do, they're always behind us with a video camera, with a
microphone, trying to record all our movement and all things that
we're saying."

As he leaves for Europe and Russia this week, where nuclear standoffs
in Iran and North Korea will top the agenda, President Bush finds
himself struggling to square his muscular declarations with the
realpolitik of his second term after the invasion of Iraq, David
Sanger reports for the New York Times. At every provocation, he finds
himself in an unaccustomed position: urging patience. To some
conservatives who backed Mr. Bush's decision in Iraq, "standing by and
waiting" is the essence of Mr. Bush's current strategy. Mr. Bush's
aides say their critics have done everything but describe a workable
alternative. Iran, they note, is five or more years from a nuclear
weapon — and, in their more candid moments, they acknowledge that it
has numerous options for retaliating for any military action. He
knows, aides say, that even to hint at military action or deadlines if
Iran refuses to suspend enriching uranium would probably destroy any
chance of getting China and Russia aboard on a common strategy.

With the uproar over North Korea's missile tests, America and its
allies are fretting that all the attention could hurt their effort to
curb Iran's suspect nuclear program, George Jahn reports for AP. Some
diplomats involved in both issues said over the past few days that the
North Korean crisis could push talks with Iran further down the
international agenda. Before the G8 summit, the U.S. and its allies on
the Security Council "can apply pressure on Russia" to stand with the
West in dealing with Iran, a diplomat said. That lever will be weaker
after the St. Petersburg meeting. A U.N. diplomat told AP that the
Americans considered Thursday's informal meeting between European
Union envoy Javier Solana and Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani
a flop that failed to advance the effort to get Tehran to freeze
uranium enrichment and start negotiations on its nuclear program. A
European official said that while the Americans remained interested in
a negotiated solution to the Iran issue, "the negotiating mode is
suddenly less valued" in Washington because of the unexpected North
Korean developments.

The second-ranking American commander in Iraq has concluded that some
senior Marine officers were negligent in failing to investigate more
aggressively the killings of 24 Iraqi civilians by marines in Haditha
last November, two Defense Department officials said Friday. The
officer, Lt. Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli, concluded that in the deaths,
including those of 10 women and children and an elderly man in a
wheelchair, senior officers failed to follow up on inaccuracies and
inconsistencies in the initial reporting of the incident that should
have raised questions. General Chiarelli faulted the senior staff of
the Second Marine Division, commanded at the time by Maj. Gen. Richard
A. Huck, and the Second Regimental Combat Team, then headed by Col.
Stephen W. Davis, and recommended unspecified disciplinary action for
some officers, said the two defense officials.

After telling reporters that they "don't do body counts", Pentagon
officials now say that they have in fact been keeping a record of
civilian casualties in Iraq for one year. That number remains
classified. Independent estimates suggest that at least 50,000 people
have died in the country since the 2003 invasion. The Washington-based
Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict (CIVIC) and other
humanitarian organisations called on the U.S. military to release its
data. CIVIC's Sarah Holewinski, suggested that it is unlikely that the
Pentagon will release its data unless compelled to by Congress.

Felipe Calderon isn't Mexico's president-elect until the nation's
highest electoral court says so, noted an AP story on Friday. The
independent agency that ran last Sunday's election has no legal
authority to declare a winner. Under Mexico's election laws, Calderon
won't have won until the Federal Electoral Tribunal certifies the
count. And that's not a sure thing: the widely respected tribunal has
overturned two gubernatorial races in recent years, both for meddling
by the ruling party.

The New York Times on Friday editorialized in favor of a complete
recount in the Mexican election.

López Obrador said that Calderón was wrong to begin assuming the role
of president-elect before the results of last Sunday's contests had
been upheld in court. He objected to the congratulatory messages that
had been sent to Calderón from the United States, Spain and Canada. He
said it was all part of a strategy by Calderón to end a process that
was not yet over.

In yesterday's Washington Post, Ronald Klain, general counsel for the
Gore-Lieberman Recount Committee in 2000, suggested that Mexican
opposition presidential candidate Lopez Obrador must "call his
supporters to the streets and question the legitimacy of the vote
casting and counting process."

A crowd estimated at 280,000 by the Mexico City government filled the
central city square on Saturday to protest in support of the
opposition's demands for a recount in the Mexican presidential
election. López Obrador told the crowd that he was organizing a march
to the capital Wednesday from all over Mexico, including states
hundreds of miles distant. "This is, and will continue to be, a
peaceful movement," he said. Seconds later, he announced another mass
rally, this one for July 16, at which the crowd raucously yelled back:
"What time?" Thousands of protesters chanted "Voto por voto, casilla
por casilla" -- vote by vote, polling place by polling place -- as
they streamed into the square.

Articles:
1) Oil Eases Under $74 Ahead of Iranian Nuclear Talks
Reuters
July 10, 2006
Filed at 4:20 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-oil.html

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Oil edged below $74 a barrel on Monday, extending
the previous session's 1.4 percent fall on expectations of progress in
talks on Iran's nuclear program.

Prices hit a record high of $75.78 on Friday on signs of easing
tension between the West and Iran, with European Union foreign policy
chief Javier Solana set to meet Iranian representatives on Tuesday.

2) U.S. Standoffs With Iran, N.Korea Continue
Associated Press
July 10, 2006
Filed at 4:12 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-US-NKorea-Iran.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush has softened the U.S. stance against
Iran and North Korea, trying to bargain with regimes he once lumped
with Iraq in an ''axis of evil.''
But the results in his second term are largely the same as in his
first -- nuclear standoffs against nations that define themselves by
their opposition to U.S. policies even as they angle for Washington's
attention.


3) Bush to Meet With German Chancellor Thurs.
Associated Press
July 10, 2006
Filed at 3:38 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Bush-Germany.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- There are still disagreements over such issues as
global warming, the death penalty and the U.S.-run prison at
Guantanamo Bay, but it is still hard to remember a time when
U.S.-German relations were on a sounder footing. And the good feelings
will be on display Thursday when, while en route to the G-8 summit in
Russia, President Bush will be the guest of Chancellor Angela Merkel,
head of Germany's Christian Democrats, on a visit to her home state of
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in the former East Germany.



4) Oil Prices Fall Below $74 a Barrel
Associated Press
July 10, 2006
Filed at 5:47 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Oil-Prices.html

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Crude oil prices retreated Monday as traders took
profits following recent gains and amid easing worries about Iran's
nuclear dispute after the country's top nuclear negotiator expressed
optimism that the standoff can be resolved peacefully.

5) Iran Bars Visits by U.N. Nuclear Inspector Critical of Its Government
Reuters
July 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/10/world/middleeast/10iran.html

BERLIN, July 9 (Reuters) — Iran has barred a senior United Nations
nuclear inspector who has criticized the government from visiting the
country, a Western diplomat said Sunday. The diplomat was confirming a
report in the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag, in which the
International Atomic Energy Agency section chief for Iran, Chris
Charlier of Belgium, was reported as saying that he had not been
allowed into Iran for several months.


6) Bush's Shift: Being Patient With Foes
David E. Sanger
New York Times
July 10, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/10/world/asia/10prexy.html

WASHINGTON, July 9 — President Bush has never made apologies for
enshrining pre-emption as the defining doctrine of his first term. He
has declared many times that in a post-9/11 world, presidents no
longer have the luxury of waiting for the slow grinding of diplomatic
give-and-take when unpredictable dictators are assembling arsenals
that could threaten the United States. But as he leaves for Europe and
Russia this week, where the simultaneous nuclear standoffs in Iran and
North Korea will top the agenda, Mr. Bush finds himself struggling to
square his muscular declarations with the realpolitik of his second
term after the invasion of Iraq. At every turn, and every provocation,
he finds himself in an unaccustomed position: urging patience.

7) Iran Asks IAEA to Remove Chief Inspector
George Jahn
Associated Press
Sunday, July 9, 2006; 10:11 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/09/AR2006070900192.html

BETINA, Croatia -- Iran has asked the International Atomic Energy
Agency to remove the head of the inspection team probing Tehran's
nuclear program, U.N. officials said Sunday. The inspector, Chris
Charlier, has not been back to Iran since April because of Iranian
displeasure with his work, the officials said. However, Charlier
remains the head of the team, they said, speaking on condition of
anonymity because the issue was confidential. The German newspaper
Welt am Sonntag reported Sunday that Charlier had been removed from
his post and assigned to other duties. It quoted him as saying he
believes Iran is operating a clandestine nuclear program and suggested
it was linked to weapons.

8) N. Korea Crisis Hurts Unity on Iran Nukes
George Jahn
Associated Press
Sunday, July 9, 2006; 1:55 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/09/AR2006070900282.html

With the uproar over North Korea's missile tests, America and its
allies are fretting that all the attention could hurt their effort to
curb Iran's suspect nuclear program. Some diplomats involved in both
issues fear international focus is shifting too much to Pyongyang,
which test-fired seven missiles Wednesday. The U.N. Security Council
is working on a resolution on North Korea as the U.S. and other
nations seek ways to engage the regime in talks.

9) General Faults Marine Response to Iraq Killings
Eric Schmitt and David S. Cloud
New York Times
July 8, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/08/world/middleeast/08haditha.html

The second-ranking American commander in Iraq has concluded that some
senior Marine officers were negligent in failing to investigate more
aggressively the killings of 24 Iraqi civilians by marines in Haditha
last November, two Defense Department officials said Friday. The
officer, Lt. Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli, concluded that in the deaths,
including those of 10 women and children and an elderly man in a
wheelchair, senior officers failed to follow up on inaccuracies and
inconsistencies in the initial reporting of the incident that should
have raised questions.

10) 50,000 Dead, But Who's Counting?
Juliana Lara Resende
Inter Press Service
July 7
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=33897

After famously telling reporters that they "don't do body counts",
Pentagon officials now say that they have in fact been keeping a
record of civilian casualties in Iraq for one year. And while that
number remains classified, independent estimates suggest that at least
50,000 people have died in the country since the 2003 invasion.

11) Mexican Courts Decide if Calderon Winner
David Koop, Associated Press
Friday, July 7, 2006; 9:05 PM

Felipe Calderon isn't Mexico's president-elect until the nation's
highest electoral court says so. The independent agency that ran
Sunday's election added up more than 41 million votes and declared
that Calderon won the most: 240,000 more than rival Andres Manuel
Lopez Obrador. But this agency has no legal authority to declare a
winner.

Under Mexico's election laws, Calderon won't have won until the
Federal Electoral Tribunal certifies the count. And that's not a sure
thing: the widely respected tribunal has overturned two gubernatorial
races in recent years, both for meddling by the ruling party.

12) A Recount in Mexico
Editorial
New York Times
July 7, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/07/opinion/07fri2.html

There are enough problems to warrant a complete recount. Some polling
stations that have recounted their ballots have found that the votes
were misrecorded on tally sheets. The earlier discrepancies appeared
to largely favor Mr. Calderón, in at least one case mistakenly
awarding him hundreds of extra votes. The I.F.E. cannot legally order
a recount of the entire presidential election. But the Federal
Election Tribunal, an independent panel created to handle these kinds
of disputes, could. In previous races, it has called new elections in
the states of Tabasco and Colima. Mr. Calderón should not oppose a
recount. If the result favors him, he should be able to govern more
effectively.

13) Don't Take the High Road
Ronald Klain
Washington Post
Sunday, July 9, 2006; B01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/07/AR2006070701157.html

For the presidential campaign of Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador… It's
only a matter of time before the Mexican equivalent of our pundit
class begins its demands for "finality." For Lopez Obrador, the clock
is ticking loudly. If he wants to keep his candidacy alive, he must
take decisive action. He must bring meaningful and documented claims
of fraud in the election. He must call his supporters to the streets
and question the legitimacy of the vote casting and counting process.
He must demand that, notwithstanding Mexican law, every ballot be
recounted, by hand, to ensure an accurate tally. Above all, he must
reject any suggestion that Calderòn received more votes -- indeed, he
must insist that any fair count would show that he is the rightful
winner.

14) Contender Alleges Mexico Vote Was Rigged
Populist's Plan for Legal Challenge Ignites Boisterous Crowd at
Massive Rally in Capital
Manuel Roig-Franzia
Washington Post
Sunday, July 9, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/08/AR2006070801010.html

Downtown Mexico City swelled Saturday with the accumulated frustration
and rage of the poor, who were stoked into a sign-waving, fist-pumping
frenzy by new fraud allegations that failed populist candidate Andrés
Manuel López Obrador hopes will overturn the results of Mexico's
presidential election.

15) Leftist Predicts Unrest Without Complete Recount of Mexican Election
James C. Mckinley Jr. and Ginger Thompson
New York Times
July 9, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/09/world/americas/09mexico.html

…On Saturday, [López Obrador] led a rally of at least 150,000 people,
charged the polling had been marred by fraud and suggested there would
be civil unrest without a vote-by-vote recount. López Obrador called
on his supporters to march Wednesday from every electoral district in
the country to the capital, an echo of his 1994 march from Tabasco to
the capital to protest his defeat in the governor's race.

--
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy