[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News - July 11, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
July 11, 2006

In this issue:
1) Oil Slips Further From Peak Ahead of Iran Talks
2) EU Pushes for Iran Nuclear Reply Before G8 Deadline
3) Iran Rejects Deadline at EU Nuclear Talks
4) Rice Says Time for Iran to Give Nuclear Reply
5) Time Up for Iran's Answer on Weapon
6) Diplomats Press Iran for Answer on Deal
7) US Army to Call Reporters in Officer's Case
8) Mexico Leftist Cries Fraud with Election Videos
9) Leftist Screens Videos He Says Prove Fraud in Mexico Vote
10) Leftist Claims Broad Fraud in Mexican Vote
11) There Is No President-Elect in Mexico

Summary:

The European Union will push Iran on Tuesday to respond to an offer of
incentives to halt uranium enrichment just days before a G8 deadline,
but Iran insists it wants more time. The West has urged Iran to accept
a package of technology, economic and political sweeteners by
Saturday's meeting of Group of Eight major power nations in St
Petersburg in Russia, or face possible U.N. Security Council action.
Diplomats say Russia and China are wary about imposing sanctions on
Tehran and so acknowledge there is little pressure on Iran to give an
early reply. "Tomorrow, we will not give a definite answer,'' an
Iranian official said Monday. "We will only discuss questions and
ambiguities regarding the offer,'' the official said, adding that a
final response was ''very unlikely'' even if Solana answered all their
queries on the package.

Two U.S. nuclear analysts said the offer would be more appealing to
Iran if it included U.S.-backed assurances of no threats or use of
force, and a pledge of quick help to restore infrastructure worn down
by U.S.-driven trade restrictions. "Iran is not prepared to relinquish
(enrichment) for tenuous concessions like multilateral talks to which
the U.S. is one party, or promises of nuclear and economic assistance
involving long timetables and complicated conditions,'' said former
U.N. arms inspector David Albright and analyst Jacqueline Shire. The
Institute for Science and International Security said Iran had to be
offered a way forward which "makes the decision to give up enrichment
an appealing, logical step and not a humiliating, defeated one.''

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Monday it was time
for Iran to give a definitive answer to a major powers' proposal for
the Islamic republic to negotiate over curbs on its nuclear programs.
Rice demanded a response despite the country's nuclear negotiator
warning he would not give Iran's final answer on Tuesday to the top EU
diplomat at a meeting where the powers hope for a formal reply.

The Bush administration is poised to press the Security Council to
begin the process of imposing punitive action against Iran, after
signals that Tehran will not provide straightforward acceptance or
rejection today of a proposal designed to prevent it from developing a
nuclear weapon, U.S. and European officials said yesterday, the
Washington Post reports. The United States and some Security Council
countries have now concluded that Iran has decided to test American
resolve and the solidarity of Security Council cooperation, U.S. and
European officials said. With Iran insisting that it needs more time,
Rice is expected to urge Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany to
begin the process of imposing the sticks in the carrots-or-sticks
proposal, U.S. and European officials said. The Bush administration
wants an answer before the G-8 meeting in Russia, while Moscow wants a
spirit of cooperation to produce a positive outcome on many issues.

Oil prices eased on Tuesday, falling for a fourth session on profit
taking and hopes of progress toward resolving Iran's atomic stand-off
when Iranian and EU officials meet later in the day. But traders said
the fall was limited by Tehran's reluctance to reach an agreement
quickly, as well as expectations of a strong draw on U.S. gasoline
after the Independence Day holiday weekend. Oil is falling on hopes
Iran will eventually commit to diplomatic initiatives, with some
analysts saying the dispute accounts for as much as $5 a barrel of
current firm values. Oil is up about 20 percent this year because of
concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions, supply cuts in Nigeria and a
flood of investment fund money into commodities.

The U.S. Army plans to call two journalists as witnesses to support
charges filed against an officer who refused to fight in Iraq because
of his objections to the war, his lawyer said. First Lt. Ehren Watada
is facing charges over his refusal to deploy to Iraq with his unit.
Last week, the Army charged Watada with missing his deployment,
conduct unbecoming an officer and contempt toward officials. If found
guilty on all charges, he faces up to seven years of prison. To prove
that he made "contemptuous'' comments about President George W. Bush
and therefore engaged in conduct unbecoming an officer, the Army plans
to call two journalists to attest to comments Watada made during
interviews, the officer's lawyer said. In the charge sheet, the Army
also said Watada made ''disgraceful'' statements about the president.
Watada, who supporters say is the first commissioned U.S. officer to
publicly refuse to serve in Iraq, has called the war and U.S.
occupation of Iraq ``illegal'' and said his participation would make
him party to war crimes. The charge sheet quotes Watada as saying in
one interview: ''As I read about the level of deception the Bush
administration used to initiate and process this war, I was shocked. I
became ashamed of wearing the uniform.'' The lawyer argues that such
comments are within Watada's First Amendment rights to make.

Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador showed what
he called video proof of fraud and refused to commit to accepting a
final court ruling on the results. On Monday, Lopez Obrador played two
amateur videos that he said documented cheating by his rivals, saying
similar instances of fraud had taken place across the country. One
video showed a purported PAN supporter in the central state of
Guanajuato stuffing a ballot box for congressional elections held the
same day as the presidential vote. The other, taken in Queretaro state
during the presidential vote recount, showed what appeared to be an
electoral official refusing to recount a ballot box that favored
Calderon. Obrador repeated his demand for a nationwide, vote-by-vote
recount and said he would wait to see the court's ruling on his
lawsuit before deciding if he would accept it.

Ruling party candidate Felipe Calderon is already acting as if were
the president. Foreign leaders including President Bush have called
Calderon to congratulate him. Election results have not been ratified
by the Federal Electoral Tribunal, which has until Aug. 31 to rule on
whether it will grant Mr. López Obrador's request for a recount. Until
it does, Mexico remains without a settled heir to the presidency.
President Fox's spokesman said Monday that Fox would not meet with
either Calderón or López Obrador until the electoral tribunal had
certified the winner.  John M. Ackerman, an expert on electoral law at
the National Autonomous University of Mexico, argued that a recount
would strengthen democracy by removing public doubt about the
transparency of the process. He said that Mr. López Obrador had shown
enough evidence to raise the tribunal's attention. "They have a real
case," he said. Lopez Obrador supporters say they plan to visit
foreign embassies here to demand their governments not congratulate
Felipe Calderon until Mexican courts hear the appeals for a manual
recount. Calderon has taken congratulatory phone calls from President
Bush and the leaders of Canada, Spain and Colombia, among others.
White House spokesman Tony Snow said Bush would acknowledge any
Mexican court rulings that could change who won the election.

Just Foreign Policy was interviewed on WBAI in New York Monday
morning. JFP stressed that contrary to some press reports, there is no
president-elect in Mexico until the Federal Electoral Tribunal says
there is, and the Federal Electoral Tribunal has broad scope to order
the recount of ballots.

Articles:
1) Oil Slips Further From Peak Ahead of Iran Talks
Reuters
July 11, 2006
Filed at 2:26 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-oil.html

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Oil eased on Tuesday, falling for a fourth session
on extended profit taking from last week's record high and hopes of
progress toward resolving Iran's atomic stand-off when Iranian and EU
officials meet later in the day. But traders said losses were limited
by Tehran's reluctance to reach an agreement quickly, as well as
expectations of a strong draw on U.S. gasoline after the Independence
Day holiday weekend when fresh data is released on Wednesday.

2) EU Pushes for Iran Nuclear Reply Before G8 Deadline
Reuters
July 11, 2006
Filed at 6:56 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran.html

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union will push Iran on Tuesday to
respond to an offer of incentives to halt uranium enrichment in a new
encounter just days before a key G8 deadline, but Tehran insists it
wants more time. The West has urged Iran to accept a package of
technology, economic and political sweeteners by Saturday's meeting of
Group of Eight major power nations in St Petersburg in Russia, or face
possible U.N. Security Council action.

3) Iran Rejects Deadline at EU Nuclear Talks
Reuters
July 11, 2006
Filed at 7:01 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran-eu.html

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Iran's chief nuclear negotiator rebuffed Western
pressure on Tuesday for an immediate answer to a package of incentives
to suspend uranium enrichment ahead of crucial talks with the European
Union. The United States, which accuses Tehran of secretly working to
build nuclear weapons, has demanded a clear Iranian response before
next weekend's summit of Group of Eight industrialized nations in
Russia or face possible U.N. Security Council action.

4) Rice Says Time for Iran to Give Nuclear Reply
Reuters
July 10, 2006
Filed at 5:19 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/washington/politics-nuclear-iran-usa.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said
on Monday it was time for Iran to give a definitive answer to a major
powers' proposal for the Islamic republic to negotiate over curbs on
its nuclear programs. Rice demanded a response despite the country's
nuclear negotiator warning he would not give Iran's final answer on
Tuesday to the top EU diplomat at a meeting where the powers hope for
a formal reply.

5) Time Up for Iran's Answer on Weapon
Viewing Delay as a Test, U.S. Ready To Pressure U.N. to Penalize Tehran
Robin Wright
Washington Post
Tuesday, July 11, 2006; A12
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/10/AR2006071001232.html

The Bush administration is poised to press the U.N. Security Council
to begin the process of imposing punitive action against Iran, after
signals over the weekend that Tehran will not provide the
straightforward acceptance or rejection today of a U.S.-backed
proposal designed to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon, U.S.
and European officials said yesterday. European Union foreign policy
chief Javier Solana is scheduled to meet Iranian negotiator Ali
Larijani today in Brussels to get an answer, a meeting that already
had been delayed a week. But over the weekend, Iranian Foreign
Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Solana had not provided answers about
what Iranian officials have termed ambiguities in the plan.

6) Diplomats Press Iran for Answer on Deal
Anne Gearan
Associated Press
Monday, July 10, 2006; 7:15 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/10/AR2006071001003.html

WASHINGTON -- U.S. and British diplomats said Monday that Iran has had
long enough to consider a proposed deal to give up disputed parts of
its nuclear program, but they gave no specifics about what the world
will do if Iran does not budge. Neither Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice nor British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett sounded confident
that Tehran will give a definitive response this week, as the nations
that made the offer had said they wanted.

7) US Army to Call Reporters in Officer's Case
Reuters
July 11, 2006
Filed at 0:19 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-iraq-us-officer.html

SEATTLE (Reuters) - The U.S. Army plans to call two journalists as
witnesses to support charges filed against an officer who refused to
fight in Iraq because of his objections to the war, the lieutenant's
lawyer said on Monday. First Lt. Ehren Watada is facing charges over
his refusal to deploy to Iraq with his unit on June 22 and choosing to
remain at the Fort Lewis base in Washington state. Last week, the Army
charged Watada with missing his deployment, conduct unbecoming an
officer and contempt toward officials. If found guilty on all charges,
he faces up to seven years of confinement, dismissal and forfeiture of
pay.

8) Mexico Leftist Cries Fraud with Election Videos
Reuters
July 11, 2006
Filed at 1:49 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mexico-election.html

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The leftist candidate who narrowly lost
Mexico's contested presidential election showed what he called video
proof of fraud on Monday and refused to commit to accepting a final
court ruling on the results. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the former
mayor of Mexico City, has asked an electoral court to reverse a
razor-thin victory in the July 2 election for conservative Felipe
Calderon of the ruling National Action Party, or PAN. On Monday, Lopez
Obrador played two shaky amateur videos that he said documented
cheating by his rivals.

9) Leftist Screens Videos He Says Prove Fraud in Mexico Vote
Ginger Thompson
New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/11/world/americas/11mexico.html
July 11, 2006

On the morning after his campaign filed a legal challenge to last
week's presidential elections, the leftist candidate, Andrés Manuel
López Obrador, stepped up his public campaign against the vote,
screening two videos that he said proved the election was flawed. One
video showed what he described as a voter in President Vicente Fox's
home state of Guanajuato illegally stuffing a ballot box in the race
for Congress. The other video, he said, showed that election officials
in the state of Querétaro had wrongly given his conservative opponent,
Felipe Calderón, 200 more votes than he had actually won at one
polling station.

10) Leftist Claims Broad Fraud in Mexican Vote
Associated Press
July 10, 2006
Filed at 11:39 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Mexico-Elections-Challenge.html

Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and his campaign staff claimed
that a network of federal officials, prosecutors and possibly even
judges collaborated in a broad conspiracy to steal last week's
presidential elections. They say they have evidence for the fraud,
including videos like one Lopez Obrador showed reporters on Monday, in
which a man in the state of Guanajuato is seen stuffing several
ballots into a ballot box marked for congressional races. It was not
clear who the votes were marked for. There was no immediate way to
confirm the authenticity of the video. Lopez Obrador supporters say
they plan to visit foreign embassies here to demand their governments
not congratulate conservative Felipe Calderon -- who narrowly won the
July 2 race according to the official vote count -- until Mexican
courts hear the leftist's appeals for a manual recount.

11) There Is No President-Elect in Mexico
Interview with Just Foreign Policy
WBAI Radio, New York
July 10, 2006
http://archive.wbai.org/pls.php?mp3fil=6792
JFP stressed that contrary to some press reports, there is no
president-elect in Mexico until the Federal Electoral Tribunal says
there is, and the Federal Electoral Tribunal has broad scope to order
the recount of ballots. The story on Mexico starts at 48:18. The
interview is about 10 minutes long.


--
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy