[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, July 13, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
July 13, 2006

In this issue:
1) Israeli Jets Strike Airport in Beirut
2) Iran Defiant After Atomic Case Goes Back to UN
3) Iran Says Will Not Abandon Atomic Rights: TV
4) US Says Israel has Right to Defend Itself
5) Stock Futures Fall, Oil Price Hits Record High
6) Iran Shrugs Off U.N. Council Referral
7) Sign That Crisis Is Regional, Not Just Israel vs. Palestinians
8) Russia and China Inch Toward Iran Sanctions
9) Major Powers Will Return Iran Issue to U.N. Council
10) On Iran, Giving Futility Its Chance
11) Road to Victory in Iraq 'Unclear,' US Auditors Conclude
12) Leftist's Supporters Stream Into Mexican Capital

Summary:
Helene Cooper, writing in the New York Times, notes that Iranian
President Ahmadinejad has said that, "God willing," Iran would respond
to the West's package by late August. The emphasis in the article on
the phrase "God willing" seems to suggest that Ms. Cooper believes
that the use of the phrase indicates a lack of intentionality. The
phrase "God willing" is common in Islamic culture in describing any
event that will take place in the future; its use, in itself, provides
no evidence of a lack of intentionality on the part of the speaker.

A New York Times editor yesterday defended the paper's
characterization of Iran as not having said when it would respond to
the West's package of incentives. "Iran has never specified exactly
when it would respond to the proposals," the editor wrote to Just
Foreign Policy. "At best Iran has offered a vague and imprecise
answer. Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said on June 21 that
Iran would, 'God willing, give our opinion at the end of' the Iranian
month of Mordad, which coincides with Aug. 22. That is how many news
organizations interpreted August or late August as a date. But
immediately after he said that,  Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali
Larijani, said a date was not and is not fixed, suggesting that
Ahmadinejad's statement was incorrect."

Russia and China joined the United States and Europe on Wednesday in
agreeing to seek a United Nations Security Council resolution ordering
Iran to freeze some nuclear activities, or face sanctions, the New
York Times reports. Though punitive sanctions are in no way certain,
agreeing to start down a road that could lead to them is a big step
for Moscow and Beijing. The group agreed to seek a Security Council
resolution that would make suspension of enrichment mandatory, but
said it could stop the Security Council action at any time, provided
Iran suspended its uranium enrichment. The list of possible sactions
includes travel restrictions on Iranian officials, a ban on cultural
exchanges and visas for Iranians, financial restrictions, political
sanctions and even an oil embargo, although the latter is seen as
highly unlikely and one that could further rattle global markets. The
incentives presented to Iran include access to light-water nuclear
reactors, support for Tehran's entry into the World Trade
Organization, and lifting a ban on selling aircraft and parts to Iran.

Iran said on Thursday it would not abandon its right to nuclear
technology after Tehran's case was referred back to the U.N. Security
Council in its atomic dispute with the West.
"Our answer to the P5+1 package is clear, the Iranian nation abides by
international laws and regulations but will not abandon its obvious
right to obtain nuclear technology,'' Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad said. "We are trying to investigate the proposed package
positively,'' Ahmadinejad said, but he repeated that Iran would give
its final reply by August 22 despite pressure for a swifter response.

France said world powers would propose a U.N. resolution over Iran's
nuclear activities that could include sanctions if Iran did not give
them a positive response by mid-August.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the major powers were not yet
considering imposing sanctions on Iran. Analysts say Iran may
calculate such divisions mean it is only likely to face modest steps
such as travel bans on officials or asset freezes, measures they say
Iran may believe it can weather. French Foreign Minister Philippe
Douste-Blazy said the six powers had agreed a two-stage process. The
first stage would involve passing a U.N. resolution "in a few days''
demanding Iran suspend all sensitive nuclear work. If Iran responded
"No'' in mid-August, he said another resolution would be proposed
under Chapter VII of the United Nations charter, which allows for
economic sanctions but does not endorse military action. Russia has
said using force was "absolutely excluded.''

In Russia, President Vladimir Putin said Iran should respond more
quickly to the proposals to end the standoff, but he also cautioned
against rushing to punish Tehran. ''We believe that the situation
should not be brought to a deadlock to deteriorate it,'' Putin said.
''We of course would like Iran react quicker. But we also have
negative examples of how haste in seeking solutions to other, no less
sensitive or difficult issues, also in the same region, led to a
situation that no one knows how to get out, that is emerging, say, in
Iraq.''

Israel struck targets in Beirut and south Lebanon today in retaliation
for a cross-border assault by the guerilla group Hezbollah, prompting
President Bush to express concern that the Israeli actions might
"topple'' the Lebanese government. Israeli warplanes fired missiles at
the runways at Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, shutting
the airport and potentially stranding thousands of visitors at the
peak of tourist season. Israeli warplanes also hit numerous locations
in southern Lebanon, adding to the civilian death toll. The Israeli
military said the airport was a target because Hezbollah receives
weapons shipments there. Israel said that two soldiers were captured
and at least eight killed in the fighting with Hezbollah. The White
House released a statement condemning the Hezbollah raid, calling it
an "unprovoked act of terrorism" and holding Syria and Iran
responsible because of their longstanding support for the group.

The expansion of the Gaza crisis into southern Lebanon has
demonstrated that the central issue at stake is regional, not local,
the New York Times reports. For Israel the issue is the broader
problem of radical Islam. While Israel and the United States still
hope that Hamas will respond to the responsibilities of elected
leadership and moderate its rejection of Israel, they have no such
hopes for Iran. An Arab intelligence officer working in a country
neighboring Israel said it appeared that Iran — through Hezbollah —
had given support to stage the seizure of Corporal Shalit. The officer
said the Shalit case, even before the capture of two more Israeli
soldiers, amounted to Hezbollah and Iran sending a message: "If you
want to hurt us, there are tools that we have and that we can use
against you."

The Government Accountability Office has openly questioned if victory
in Iraq can be achieved without a significant overhaul of President
Bush's strategy. "It is unclear how the United States will achieve its
desired end-state in Iraq given the significant changes in the
assumptions underlying the US strategy," the GAO wrote. The review
focuses on the "National Strategy for Victory in Iraq," a glitzy
document released by the White House with great fanfare last November.
Nine months later, congressional investigators found these high hopes
were resting on shaky premises that are quickly melting away. The
bedrock foundation of the president's strategy -- a permissive
security environment -- "never materialized," said the authors of the
report, describing the Iraqi insurgency as "active and increasingly
lethal." The number of attacks increased 23 percent from 2004 to 2005
and rose to the highest ever level last April. In the absence of
security, efforts to rebuild the war-ravaged country or even to return
key segments of its economy to their pre-war level have hit a
roadblock. If before the 2003 US-led invasion, crude oil production
averaged in Iraq 2.6 million barrels a day, it stood at only two
million barrels a day this past March.

Thousands of Mexicans streamed into the capital on Wednesday, riding
horses, walking and packed into trucks to defend an anti-poverty
crusader's claim that he was cheated out of an election that has
polarized the country. The marchers said they would not back down
until electoral authorities accept that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
won the July 2 vote. Official results show Felipe Calderon won the
election by 0.58 of a percentage point but Lopez Obrador has alleged
fraud and an electoral court now has until the start of September to
decide who is the next president. Lopez Obrador says a nationwide
vote-by-vote recount is the only way to settle doubts. He has called
his supporters from around the country to start gathering in the
capital from Wednesday ahead of a huge march on Sunday to the Zocalo,
one of the world's largest municipal squares. His party estimated that
40,000-50,000 supporters were on the move ahead of the rally. Surveys
carried out by Calderon's National Action Party showed that as many as
30 percent of Mexicans believe the election was fraudulent, party
aides said.

Articles:
1) Israeli Jets Strike Airport in Beirut
Greg Myre And Steven Erlanger
New York Times
July 13, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/world/middleeast/13cnd-mideast.html

Israel struck targets in Beirut and south Lebanon today in retaliation
for a cross-border assault by the guerilla group Hezbollah, prompting
President Bush to express concern that the Israeli actions might
"topple'' the Lebanese government. Hezbollah had surprised Israel with
a bold daylight assault on Wednesday, leading Israel to respond by
sending armored forces into southern Lebanon for the first time in six
years. Early on Thursday morning, Israeli warplanes fired missiles at
the runways at Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, shutting
the airport and potentially stranding thousands of visitors at the
peak of tourist season. Israeli warplanes also hit numerous locations
in southern Lebanon, adding to the civilian death toll. The Israeli
military confirmed the strike, saying that the airport was a target
because Hezbollah receives weapons shipments there.

2) Iran Defiant After Atomic Case Goes Back to UN
Reuters
July 13, 2006
Filed at 7:42 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-nuclear-iran.html

Iran said on Thursday it would not abandon its right to nuclear
technology in a defiant statement after Tehran's case was referred
back to the U.N. Security Council in its atomic dispute with the West.
But President Bush kept up Western pressure saying Tehran could not
``wait us out'' in the nuclear dispute and Germany warned ``other
steps'' would be necessary if Tehran did not respond to a package to
rein in its atomic work.

3) Iran Says Will Not Abandon Atomic Rights: TV
Reuters
July 13, 2006
Filed at 2:44 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-nuclear-iran-ahmadinejad.html

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday Iran would not
abandon its right to nuclear technology, in response to a package
backed by six world powers aimed at ending a nuclear standoff with the
West. "Our answer to the P5+1 package is clear, the Iranian nation
abides by international laws and regulations but will not abandon its
obvious right to obtain nuclear technology,'' he was quoted as saying
by state television. He also said Iran was ready for talks and
repeated that the country would give its answer to the package by
August 22, despite mounting international pressure for a quicker
response.

4) US Says Israel has Right to Defend Itself
Reuters
July 13, 2006
Filed at 5:50 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/washington/politics-mideast-usa-reaction.html

The United States, reacting to escalating violence between Israel and
Hizbollah guerrillas in Lebanon, on Thursday urged restraint on both
sides but said Israel had a right to defend itself. In a widening of
reprisals after Hizbollah guerrillas captured two soldiers in a border
clash, Israel aircraft attacked Beirut airport and blockaded Lebanese
ports.

5) Stock Futures Fall, Oil Price Hits Record High
Reuters
July 13, 2006
Filed at 7:14 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-stocks.html

U.S. stock futures fell, suggesting a lower market open on Thursday,
as oil hit a record high on Middle East and other geopolitical
tensions, increasing the risk of inflation and lower corporate
profits.

6) Iran Shrugs Off U.N. Council Referral
Associated Press
July 13, 2006
Filed at 8:57 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Nuclear.html

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Thursday shrugged off a decision by
world powers to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council over its
atomic program, saying Tehran would never abandon its ''right to
exploit peaceful nuclear technology.'' The permanent members of the
Security Council plus Germany agreed on the referral Wednesday, saying
they had given Iran long enough to respond to a package of incentives
intended to persuade it to abandon uranium enrichment -- a process
that can lead to the production of nuclear weapons. The powers said in
Paris they would seek a resolution requiring Iran to suspend its
enrichment activities.

7) Sign That Crisis Is Regional, Not Just Israel vs. Palestinians
Steven Erlanger
New York Times
July 13, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/world/middleeast/13assess.html

The expansion of the Gaza crisis into southern Lebanon, confronting
Israel with a conflict on its northern and southern borders, has
demonstrated that the central issue at stake is regional, not local.
For Israel the issue is not simply the Palestinians and their actions,
including the rocket fire into Israel. It is the broader problem of
radical Islam — of Hamas, as a part of the regional Muslim
Brotherhood, and of Iran, a serious regional power with considerable
influence on Syria, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and the military wing of
Hamas.

8) Russia and China Inch Toward Iran Sanctions
Helene Cooper
New York Times
July 13, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/world/13diplo.html

Russia and China, crossing a diplomatic threshold in the effort to
curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions, joined the United States and Europe
on Wednesday by agreeing to seek a United Nations Security Council
resolution ordering Iran to freeze some nuclear activities, or face
sanctions. The movement toward a resolution represented increased
anger over Iran's refusal to respond to an offer of economic and
energy incentives if it suspended its uranium enrichment.

9) Major Powers Will Return Iran Issue to U.N. Council
E.U. Talks Spur Russia, China to Join Statement
Molly Moore
Washington Post
Thursday, July 13, 2006; A14
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/12/AR2006071200341.html

Diplomats from the United States, Russia, China and Europe announced
Wednesday that they would return to the U.N. Security Council for
possible punitive action against Iran, expressing "profound
disappointment" over the Tehran government's refusal to stop its
uranium enrichment program or respond to incentives offered by global
powers.

10) On Iran, Giving Futility Its Chance
Robert Kagan
Washington Post
Thursday, July 13, 2006; A23
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/12/AR2006071201874.html

Let's imagine, and this is purely hypothetical, that President Bush
has already decided that he will not leave office in January 2009
without a satisfactory resolution of the Iranian nuclear problem.
Let's imagine that he has already determined that if he cannot obtain
Iran's agreement to dismantle its nuclear weapons program voluntarily
and verifiably, then he will order some form of military action to
destroy as much of that program as possible before he leaves. Let's
imagine that he has resolved not to end his two terms in office the
way Bill Clinton ended his, by leaving every major international
crisis -- from Iraq to Iran to North Korea to al-Qaeda -- for his
successor.

11) Road to Victory in Iraq 'Unclear,' US Auditors Conclude
Héctor Tobar
Agence France Presse
July 12, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0712-04.htm

The investigative arm of the US Congress has openly questioned if
victory in Iraq can be achieved without a significant overhaul of
President George W. Bush's strategy, arguing the outcome of the war
was presently "unclear". The findings by the Government Accountability
Office mark the first time a non-partisan US government agency
publicly doubted whether the geo-strategic undertaking that Bush made
the defining element of his presidency, could be successful.

12) Leftist's Supporters Stream Into Mexican Capital
Reuters
July 13, 2006
Filed at 1:33 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mexico-election.html

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Thousands of Mexicans streamed into the
capital on Wednesday, riding horses, walking and packed into trucks to
defend an anti-poverty crusader's claim that he was cheated out of an
election that has polarized the country. The marchers, numbering at
least 10,000, walked in separate groups from around Mexico City to its
central square and said they would not back down until electoral
authorities accept leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador won the July 2
vote.

-- 
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy