[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, July 14, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
July 14, 2006

In this issue:
1) Iran Demands Patience From West on Nuclear Incentive Offer
2) Incentives Offered to Iran Detailed at Security Council
3) Iran Warns Israel Not to Attack Syria
4) Oil Soars to Record $78 on Mideast Conflict
5) Israel Blockades Lebanon; Wide Strikes by Hezbollah
6) Only deal with Hamas can bring peace
7) Accused G.I. Was Troubled Long Before Iraq
8) More Troops May Be Needed in Baghdad, U.S. General Says
9) Ex-C.I.A. Officer Sues Cheney and Others Over Leak
10) U.S. Vetoes U.N. Condemnation of Israel
11) Videos, Doubts, and a Backlash in Mexico Vote

Summary:
President Ahmadinejad of Iran said on Thursday that the West should be
patient in awaiting his country's response to a package of proposed
incentives in return for freezing its nuclear program, Nazila Fathi
reports in the  New York Times today. The Times notes that he "said
again that Iran would announce a decision in late August." Other
reporting by the Times has claimed that Iran has not said when it
would respond. Mr. Ahmadinejad said Thursday that the Europeans would
bear the consequences if they tried to create tension. In another
speech on Thursday Mr. Ahmadinejad accused the United States of trying
to stir up the dispute.

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, confirmed reports that
Iran had complained to the International Atomic Energy Agency about
one of its inspectors, but he said the agency had barred the inspector
from Iran. Western diplomats said this week that Iran had barred Chris
Charlier, the agency's section chief for Iran, from coming for several
months.  "We made a complaint about the way he worked, and it was the
decision of the agency to bar him from coming," Mr. Larijani said.

The Bush administration agreed to consider lifting sanctions on the
sale of commercial jets, agricultural equipment and telecommunications
technology to Iran if it agreed to halt its enrichment of uranium and
submit to more intrusive U.N. inspections of its nuclear program, the
Washington Post reports. The offer would require congressional
approval. The package presented to the Security Council Thursday
provides no explicit assurances Tehran has sought to bar U.S. military
strikes on its territory. Instead, it pledges the major powers'
support for a vaguely defined international conference to "promote
dialogue and cooperation" on regional security. President Bush, who
once described Iran as a member of the axis of evil, has resisted
European appeals to provide Iran with such security assurances,
insisting that the military option not be taken off the table.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad said on Thursday an Israeli strike on
Syria would be considered an attack on the whole Islamic world that
would bring a ``fierce response,'' Iranian state television reported.

Oil surged to record highs above $78 on Friday on fears that conflict
between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas could escalate and spread to
more Middle East countries. Iran's nuclear standoff with the West,
fears over oil supply in Nigeria due to militant attacks, an influx of
fund buying and falling U.S. crude supplies also contributed to the
rise in the oil market, which is up nearly 30 percent this year.
"There is nothing to stop prices at the moment with the stream of
headlines that are coming in," one analyst said. "All we need now is a
big hurricane.'' Oil prices averaged $67.67 so far this year, but were
still a long way from the inflation adjusted $87.65 average of 1980,
the second oil shock that followed the 1979 Iranian revolution.

Israel imposed a full naval blockade on Lebanon on Thursday and put
Beirut International Airport out of commission, and the militant group
Hezbollah unleashed a hail of rockets and mortar shells that killed
two and sent thousands of Israelis into bomb shelters.  The Lebanese
government said 53 Lebanese had died since Wednesday, including one
family of 10 and another of 7 in the southern village of Dweir. More
than 103 have been wounded, the Lebanese said.

The European Union criticized Israel on Thursday for "the
disproportionate use of force" in Lebanon "in response to attacks by
Hezbollah on Israel." It said that "the imposition of an air and sea
blockade on Lebanon cannot be justified." President Bush said that
"Israel has the right to defend herself," but he also called for care,
warning Israel not to weaken the government in Lebanon. The
Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, warned that Israel's Lebanon
offensive "is raising our fears of a new regional war" and urged world
powers to intervene. The Lebanese government, which has said that it
had nothing to do with the raid by Hezbollah, called for a cease-fire,
saying that all means should be used to end "open aggression" against
the country.

A senior Israeli foreign ministry official told reporters on Thursday
that Israel has "concrete evidence that Hezbollah plans to transfer
the kidnapped soldiers to Iran," but he gave no specifics or source
for the claim.

In an opinion piece in the Financial Times, former Israeli foreign
minister Shlomo Ben-Ami argues that only a deal with Hamas can bring
peace to Israel. Israel's two-front war has dealt a mortal blow to the
Israeli government's plan for unilateral withdrawal from parts of the
West Bank. If Olmert wants to save his withdrawal plan, he will have
to co-ordinate it with the Hamas government. A recent poll indicated
that 45% of Israelis would now support direct negotiations with Hamas.

An article in today's New York Times notes that days before Steven
Green, the former Army private accused of raping an Iraqi girl and
murdering her family, enlisted in the Army, he was in jail on
alcohol-possession charges, an unemployed 19-year-old high school
dropout who had just racked up his third misdemeanor conviction. He
arrived at the very moment that the Army was increasing by nearly half
the rate at which it granted what it calls "moral waivers" to
potential recruits. The change opened the ranks to more people like
Mr. Green, those with minor criminal records and weak educational
backgrounds. Mr. Green's Army waiver allowed a troubled young man into
the heart of a war that bore little resemblance to its original
declared purposes, but which continued to need thousands of fresh
recruits.

The United States vetoed a resolution Thursday that would have
demanded Israel halt its military offensive in the Gaza Strip. The
resolution accused Israel of a ''disproportionate use of force'' that
endangered Palestinian civilians, and demanded Israel withdraw its
troops from Gaza. The United States was alone in voting against the
resolution. Ten of the 15 Security Council nations voted in favor,
while Britain, Denmark, Peru and Slovakia abstained. The draft was
reworked repeatedly to address concerns that it was too biased against
Israel. Language was added calling for the release of an abducted
soldier and urging the Palestinians to stop firing rockets at Israel.
In Gaza, the Palestinian Foreign Ministry spokesman said the United
States must bear some responsibility for Israel's attacks. ''The veto
is a political cover for the crimes of the occupation,'' he said.
Eight of the last nine vetoes in the council have been cast by the
United States. Of those, seven concerned the Israel-Palestinian
conflict.

Valerie Wilson and her husband Joseph Wilson filed suit on Thursday
against Vice President Cheney, Cheney's former aide Lewis Libby and
presidential adviser Karl Rove, charging they had conspired to violate
their constitutional rights. The lawsuit accused Cheney, Rove and
Libby of conspiring to destroy Ms. Wilson's career by leaking her
identity as an undercover C.I.A. operative to the press. It says the
three men had conspired to punish Mr. Wilson for his public assertions
that the Bush administration had twisted intelligence to justify the
invasion of Iraq.

López Obrador has bet his political future that it will not take much
to make that doubt about the Mexican election grow into a national
call for a recount, the New York Times reports. His opponents in Mr.
Calderón's camp are betting people will see things the way they do:
that the one playing dirty is Mr. López Obrador.

Articles:
1) Iran Demands Patience From West on Nuclear Incentive Offer
Nazila Fathi
New York Times
July 14, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/14/world/middleeast/14iran.html

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran said in a defiant speech on
Thursday that the West should be patient in awaiting his country's
response to a package of proposed incentives in return for freezing
its nuclear program. "We have tried to be positive in our examination
of the package," Mr. Ahmadinejad said in his speech in Mianeh, in
northwestern Iran, the ISNA student news agency reported. He said
again that Iran would announce a decision in late August.

2) Incentives Offered to Iran Detailed at Security Council
U.N. Body to Demand Halt in Uranium Enrichment
Colum Lynch
Washington Post
Friday, July 14, 2006; A18
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/13/AR2006071301659.html

The Bush administration agreed last month to consider lifting
long-standing sanctions on the sale of commercial jets, agricultural
equipment and telecommunications technology to Iran if it agreed to
halt its enrichment of uranium and submit to more intrusive U.N.
inspections of its nuclear program, according to a copy of the
agreement made public Thursday.

3) Iran Warns Israel Not to Attack Syria
Reuters
July 13, 2006
Filed at 6:58 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-mideast-ahmadinejad.html

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday an Israeli
strike on Syria would be considered an attack on the whole Islamic
world that would bring a ``fierce response,'' state television
reported.

4) Oil Soars to Record $78 on Mideast Conflict
Reuters
July 14, 2006
Filed at 7:42 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-markets-oil.html

Oil surged to record highs above $78 on Friday on fears that conflict
between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas could escalate and spread to
more Middle East countries. Iran's nuclear standoff with the West,
fears over oil supply in Nigeria due to militant attacks, an influx of
fund buying and falling U.S. crude supplies also contributed to the
rise in the oil market -- which is up nearly 30 percent this year.

5) Israel Blockades Lebanon; Wide Strikes by Hezbollah
Hassan M. Fattah and Steven Erlanger
New York Times
July 14, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/14/world/middleeast/14cnd-mideast.html

Israel imposed a full naval blockade on Lebanon on Thursday and put
Beirut International Airport out of commission, and the militant group
Hezbollah unleashed a hail of rockets and mortar shells that killed
two and sent thousands of Israelis into bomb shelters.

6) Only deal with Hamas can bring peace
Shlomo Ben-Ami
Financial Times
July 14 2006
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/95d32c3c-12d5-11db-aecf-0000779e2340.html

Regardless of whether or not Israel's incursion into the Gaza Strip
and its massive retaliation against Lebanon achieve its military
objectives, one thing is clear. Israel's two-front war has dealt a
mortal blow to the "convergence plan" for the West Bank, the raison
d'être of Ehud Olmert's government and Kadima, his ruling party. Three
months after its inception, the Israeli government has been left
without a political agenda. Oddly enough, only Hamas can save it from
prospectless political agony. The case of Hiz­bollah is different. In
Lebanon, it is the credibility of the international community that
brokered and legitimised Israel's withdrawal that is at stake.

7) Accused G.I. Was Troubled Long Before Iraq
Jim Dwyer and Robert F. Worth
New York Times
July 14, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/14/us/14private.html

On the last day of January 2005, Steven D. Green, the former Army
private accused of raping a 14-year-old Iraqi girl and murdering her
family, sat in a Texas jail on alcohol-possession charges, an
unemployed 19-year-old high school dropout who had just racked up his
third misdemeanor conviction. Days later, Mr. Green enlisted in a
soldier-strapped Army, and was later assigned to a star-crossed unit
to serve on an especially murderous patch of earth.

8) More Troops May Be Needed in Baghdad, U.S. General Says
Paul Von Zielbauer and David S. Cloud
New York Times
July 13, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/world/middleeast/13iraq.html

Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the senior American commander in Iraq, said
Wednesday that "terrorists and death squads" were responsible for the
surge in sectarian killings here in recent weeks, and that there might
be a need to move more American forces into the capital to prevent the
deadly cycle from worsening.

9) Ex-C.I.A. Officer Sues Cheney and Others Over Leak
Neil A. Lewis
New York Times
July 14, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/14/washington/14leak.html

Valerie Wilson and her husband, Joseph C. Wilson IV, filed suit on
Thursday against Vice President Dick Cheney, Mr. Cheney's former top
aide and the senior presidential adviser Karl Rove, charging they had
conspired to violate their constitutional rights.

10) U.S. Vetoes U.N. Condemnation of Israel
Associated Press
July 14, 2006
Filed at 4:41 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-UN-Israel-Gaza.html

The United States blocked an Arab-backed resolution Thursday that
would have demanded Israel halt its military offensive in the Gaza
Strip, the first U.N. Security Council veto in nearly two years. The
draft, sponsored by Qatar on behalf of other Arab nations, accused
Israel of a ''disproportionate use of force'' that endangered
Palestinian civilians, and demanded Israel withdraw its troops from
Gaza.

11) Videos, Doubts, and a Backlash in Mexico Vote
Ginger Thompson and James C. Mckinley Jr.
New York Times
July 14, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/14/world/americas/14mexico.html

To an untrained eye, the scenes captured on video certainly looked
like Mexico's bad old days when votes were stolen instead of won.
There was a man inside a polling station stuffing one vote after
another into a ballot box.

--
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy