[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, July 17, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
July 17, 2006

In this issue:
1) Bush, Putin Concerned Iran has Not Responded
2) G8 to Give Trade a Push Amid Strains Over Mideast
3) Hizbollah Rockets Hit Haifa
4) UN's Iran Nuclear Referral "Not Constructive"
5) Iran Calls Western Incentives Acceptable
6) Despite Hezbollah's Ties to Iran and Syria, It Also Acts Alone
7) A Price Inflamed By Fear
8) Rice: No point in temporary ceasefire
9) Blair and Annan Call for International Force
10) Bombs Fall, Missiles Strike, and Death and Life Go On
11) Despite Joint Statement on Mideast, Strains Emerge as U.S.
Supports Israel's Campaign
12) Analysis: Iran the Lurking Mideast Issue
13) Militia Rebuked by Some Arab Countries
14) Oil on Rise Toward $78 After Mideast Violence
15) The Real Aim is to Change the Regime in Lebanon
16) In search of the truth about the Israel lobby's influence on Washington
17) Crowds Rally Again to Demand Recount in Mexico
18) Mexico Leftist to Launch Civil Resistance

Summary:
President Bush and Russian President Putin expressed concern Monday
that Iran had not responded to an incentives offer. The two leaders
made a show of unity in a joint statement declaring their intention to
try to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Iran said Sunday that Western incentives to halt its nuclear program
were an ''acceptable basis'' for talks, and it is ready for detailed
negotiations. Secretary of State Rice responded that Iran should talk
directly to negotiators if it wants to discuss the proposal.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters, ''We
consider this package an appropriate basis, an acceptable basis (for
talks)…Now is an appropriate opportunity for Iran and Europe to enter
detailed negotiations,'' he said. ''Sending the dossier to the U.N.
Security Council means blocking and rejecting talks.'' Asefi called on
the eight major world powers meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, to
choose dialogue with Iran. Iran has said specialized committees in key
state agencies are studying the offer and that it will formally
respond in late August. Iran has said it will never give up its right
under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to enrich uranium and
produce nuclear fuel, but has indicated it may temporarily suspend
large-scale activities to ease tensions.

Hizbollah rockets killed eight people in Haifa Sunday and bombs shook
Beirut as Israel pursued a five-day-old assault in Lebanon aimed at
crippling the Shi'ite Muslim group. Hizbollah said the attack was
retaliation for Israel's killing of civilians and destruction of
Lebanese infrastructure. Israel's campaign in Lebanon has killed 112
people, all but four civilians. It has drawn only a mild plea for
restraint from the United States. President Bush characterized
Israel's actions as self-defense and did not back Lebanon's pleas for
an immediate ceasefire. Lebanon said Italy's Prime Minister had
relayed Israeli conditions for a ceasefire. "Prodi told me that …
Olmert informed him of two demands for a ceasefire -- handing over the
two captive Israeli soldiers and a Hizbollah pullback to behind the
Litani river,'' Prime Minister Siniora said. The Litani river is 12
miles north of the Israeli-Lebanese border.

The United States earlier blocked any move by the U.N. Security
Council to demand a ceasefire. U.S. Secretary of State Rice said a
ceasefire demanded by Siniora would not work unless it addressed the
cause of the problem, which Washington says is Hizbollah violence
supported by Syria and Iran. French President Chirac called for a
ceasefire, while British Prime Minister Blair echoed the U.S. line.

The United States squabbled with France over interpretation of a joint
summit declaration that urged Israel to be restrained in its offensive
in Lebanon but told Hezbollah to make the first moves to end the
crisis. France's Chirac, who has differed already with Washington by
criticizing Israeli action as excessive, said late Sunday that the G8
was basically calling for a ceasefire. "It is clear that the G8 is
calling for a ceasefire. I can tell you that the whole of the G8 has
called for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon,'' he said. But Washington
flatly contradicted him. "There was no push for a ceasefire this
weekend,'' UnderSecretary of State Burns said.

UN Secretary-General Annan said Security Council members would on
Monday start hammering out a detailed agreement on deploying a
multilateral security force to Lebanon. The initial reaction from
Israel was cool. "I don't think we're at that stage yet,'' an Israeli
government spokeswoman said.

While the Bush administration was quick to pin responsibility on Iran
and Syria when Hezbollah militants captured two Israeli soldiers,
those countries may not have planned and ordered the raid, according
to U.S. officials and terrorism experts, the Los Angeles Times
reported Friday. Some officials and experts say Hezbollah can move on
its own initiative and for its own reasons. U.S. and Israeli charges
that their longtime adversaries were somehow involved could heighten
the tension in the region. U.S. officials declined to offer specific
evidence of Iranian or Syrian involvement in Wednesday's raid. The
State Department's annual report on terrorism notes that Hezbollah is
capable of independent action. "Hezbollah is closely allied with Iran
and often acts at its behest, but it also can and does act
independently," the report says. Hezbollah leaders deny that they are
agents of Iran or Syria, but they acknowledge Iran's financial
support, which some Western intelligence agencies say amount to more
than $200 million a year. Military affairs analyst Anthony Cordesman
of the Center for Strategic and International Studies says this
estimate is inflated since it is based on Western prices.

Up to a third of the price of oil may be a "politcal premium" due to
market fears of conflict, the Washington Post reported on Friday. As
oil topped $76 a barrel the article suggested that $10-15 of this was
due to the fear of conflict with Iran. This would translate to 24 to
36 cents a gallon at the pump (42 gallons per barrel) due to fear of
conflict with Iran.

Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and several Persian Gulf states chastised
Hezbollah for "unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts" at an
emergency Arab League summit meeting Saturday. The Saudi foreign
minister said of Hezbollah's attacks on Israel, "These acts will pull
the whole region back to years ago, and we cannot simply accept them."
His words were reported by other delegates. Some in Beirut said they
were deeply disappointed in their fellow Arabs. "I am ashamed of the
Arabs," said Omar Ajaq, who with his family escaped the bombing of
Beirut's southern suburbs to a shelter in central Beirut. "They are
utterly useless. People are now betting on the resistance. We no
longer have faith in Arab leaders."

The Pentagon notified Congress of plans to sell Israel jet fuel valued
at up to $210 million "to keep peace and security in the region". "The
proposed sale of the JP-8 aviation fuel will enable Israel to maintain
the operational capability of its aircraft inventory," the Pentagon
said in notice required by law. "The jet fuel will be consumed while
(Israel's) aircraft (are) in use to keep peace and security in the
region," the notice to Congress said. It said the sale - which
Congress may block if both houses were to enact resolutions rejecting
it within 30 days - would not affect the basic military balance in the
region.

Oil pushed toward record highs of $78 a barrel on Monday after a
weekend of worsening conflict between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas
unnerved traders who fear the violence could escalate and spread
across the oil-producing Middle East. With the brunt of the U.S.
hurricane season still to come, oil futures contracts for later
delivery were trading above $80 from November 2006 to July 2007.

The real aim of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon is to change the
regime in Lebanon and to install a puppet government, writes veteran
Israeli journalist and peace activist Uri Avnery. Everything else is
noise and propaganda. The present operation has several secondary
aims, which do not include the freeing of the prisoners. It is
probably possible to destroy some of the thousands of missiles that
Hizbullah has accumulated. For this end, the army chiefs are ready to
endanger the inhabitants of the Israeli towns exposed to the rockets.
They believe that is worthwhile, like an exchange of chess pieces.
Another secondary aim is to rehabilitate the "deterrent power" of the
army. That is a codeword for the restoration of the army's injured
pride that has suffered a severe blow from the military actions of
Hamas and Hizbullah.

An article in the Washington Post magazine on Sunday took on the
controversy about the power of the "Israel lobby" in Washington. In
March two distinguished political scientists published a heavily
footnoted essay arguing that the Bush administration's support for
Israel has "inflamed Arab and Islamic opinion and jeopardized U.S.
security." The professors claim that the Israel lobby is "using all of
the strategies in its playbook" to pressure the administration into
being aggressive and belligerent with Iran. The bottom line: "Israel's
enemies get weakened or overthrown, Israel gets a free hand with the
Palestinians, and the United States does most of the fighting, dying,
rebuilding and paying."

Several hundred thousand supporters of presidential candidate Andrés
Manuel López Obrador filled Mexico city's historic central plaza on
Sunday to demonstrate their support for a recount of Mexico's disputed
July 2 election. The crowds were considerably larger than the last
rally and indicated that the movement started by the embattled former
mayor of Mexico City remained strong. López Obrador urged his
followers to conduct nonviolent acts of civil disobedience, including
boycotts of products made by Mexican companies that opposed his
candidacy as well as those of some American companies. He also asked
them to stage sit-ins starting Sunday at the 300 district election
offices across the country. The purpose, he said, was to prevent any
tampering with ballot boxes. López Obrador led about 200,000
supporters into the the city's main plaza, where 200,000 more were
already waiting.

Articles:
1) Bush, Putin Concerned Iran has Not Responded
Reuters
July 17, 2006
Filed at 4:07 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-group-bush-putin.html

President Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who differ on
whether to impose U.N. sanctions on Iran, expressed concern on Monday
that Tehran had not responded to an incentives offer. The two leaders
made a show of unity in a joint statement declaring their intention to
try to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons, including in the
cases of Iran and North Korea.

2) G8 to Give Trade a Push Amid Strains Over Mideast
Reuters
Filed at 5:45 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-group.html
July 17, 2006

Group of Eight leaders met key developing countries on Monday to give
a push to world trade talks at a big-power summit strained by
divisions over the Middle East. Meanwhile, the United States squabbled
openly with G8 partner France over interpretation of a joint summit
declaration that urged Israel to be restrained in its offensive in
Lebanon but told Hezbollah to make the first moves to end the crisis.
France's Jacques Chirac, who has differed already with Washington by
criticizing Israeli action as excessive, said late on Sunday that the
G8 was basically calling for a ceasefire. But Washington, Israel's big
backer, flatly contradicted him.

3) Hizbollah Rockets Hit Haifa
Reuters
July 16, 2006
Filed at 9:31 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mideast1.html

Hizbollah rockets killed eight people in the Israeli city of Haifa on
Sunday and bombs shook Beirut as Israel pursued a five-day-old assault
in Lebanon aimed at crippling the Shi'ite Muslim group. It was
Hizbollah's deadliest rocket strike on Israel and Israeli Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert said it would have ''far-reaching'' consequences
for Lebanon. Hizbollah said the attack was retaliation for Israel's
killing of civilians and destruction of Lebanese infrastructure.

4) UN's Iran Nuclear Referral "Not Constructive"
Reuters
July 16, 2006
Filed at 9:48 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran-talks.html

Iran said on Sunday sending its nuclear file back to the U.N. Security
Council undermined prospects for talks over its atomic dispute with
the West.

Iran's case was referred back to the council after Tehran failed to
respond to a set of proposals backed by six world powers which called
for Tehran to halt uranium enrichment in return for economic and
diplomatic incentives.

5) Iran Calls Western Incentives Acceptable
Associated Press
July 16, 2006
Filed at 1:48 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Nuclear.html

Iran said Sunday that Western incentives to halt its nuclear program
were an ''acceptable basis'' for talks, and it is ready for detailed
negotiations. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice responded that Iran
should talk directly to negotiators if it wants to discuss the
six-nation proposal.

6) Despite Hezbollah's Ties to Iran and Syria, It Also Acts Alone
The U.S. has blamed the militants' patrons for the Mideast crisis, but
some experts aren't sure.
Paul Richter, Josh Meyer and Sebastian Rotella
Los Angeles Times
July 14, 2006
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/la-fg-hezbollah14jul14,1,4958092.story

The Bush administration was quick to pin responsibility on Iran and
Syria when Hezbollah militants captured two Israeli soldiers this
week. Yet those countries may not have specifically planned and
ordered the raid that has brought the Middle East to the edge of war,
U.S. officials and terrorism experts say.

7) A Price Inflamed By Fear
Up to a Third of Oil's Stunning Ascent Traces to Psychology
Steven Mufson
Washington Post
Friday, July 14, 2006; D01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/13/AR2006071301686.html

Add this to the costs of political instability and violence around the
world: The price of crude oil hit a record yesterday, topping $76 a
barrel. Oil prices rose as fighting spread in Lebanon, the standoff
continued over Iran's nuclear program and a Nigerian newspaper
reported that explosions had rocked two pipelines in the West African
nation. Although supplies of oil were virtually unaffected, traders
and analysts said anxiety about political violence and tension around
the world had once again driven up the "political premium" for oil.

8) Rice: No point in temporary ceasefire
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice backs Israel's military operation
in Lebanon; US government says it has agreed to supply Israel with jet
fuel to feed its warplanes
Yitzhak Benhorin
Ynetnews (Yedioth Ahronoth)
July 16, 2006, 19:04
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3276803,00.html

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned that for the time being
the United States is not interested to assist in negotiating a
ceasefire. There is no point in achieving a ceasefire so long as
Hizbullah and Hamas are capable of firing rockets at Israel, and by
doing so to breach it.

9) Blair and Annan Call for International Force
Associated Press
July 17, 2006
Filed at 6:59 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Summit-Rdp.html

British Prime Minister Tony Blair and U.N. Secretary-General Kofi
Annan called Monday for the deployment of international forces to stop
Hezbollah from bombing Israel, an issue that has overshadowed the
summit of world leaders.

10) Bombs Fall, Missiles Strike, and Death and Life Go On
New York Times
July 17, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/world/middleeast/17scene.html

Wartime Reflexes Return, With Anger
Jad Mouawad
BEIRUT, LEBANON
On Sunday, 15 years after Lebanon's civil war, the country woke up to
its fifth day of a brutal new conflict. All night, bombs fell on Haret
Hreik, south of the capital, flattening buildings and turning the
largely empty neighborhood of Hezbollah's headquarters into a modern
vision of the blitz. Fighter jets circled high above Beirut and once
more bombed the airport. Dark smoke from burning fuel tanks billowed
sky high. In southern Lebanon, dozens died in the shelling.

A Long, Lethal Reach, Long Expected
Greg Myre
HAIFA, ISRAEL
The train platform was slick with blood and littered with chunks of
fallen roof. Twisted metal dangled from above, and train cars were
charred, their windows blown out. On Sunday, Hezbollah fired 10
powerful rockets — a kind it has never unleashed before — and they
soared more than 20 miles over Israel's thinly populated north before
slamming down in Haifa, a vibrant port city generally known for its
good relations between Jews and Arabs. It was a confirmation of
something Israeli security chiefs have warned about for years: that
Hezbollah has large, powerful rockets able to reach major Israeli
cities.

New Dangers to Add to the Old Ones
Craig S. Smith
BEIT HANUN, GAZA
Israeli troops moved back into Gaza on Saturday night, setting up tank
positions on the outskirts of Beit Hanun, a crowded town of 35,000
people in the small territory's northeastern corner. Children gathered
on the street corners on Sunday, peering around corners for a glimpse
of gun-toting militants who darted from building to building as
Israeli snipers tried to pick them off.

For Tens of Thousands, a Refuge Yet Again
Katherine Zoepf
DAMASCUS, SYRIA
More than 90,000 people have fled from Lebanon into Syria since the
beginning of the Israeli bombardment, Syrian government officials said
Sunday. Among them was the family of Hamzeh Diab. The family of five
drove out of Beirut's southern suburbs after the nearby airport was
bombed Thursday evening, winding through the mountains on small
secondary roads. On Sunday, Mr. Diab sat drinking strong Turkish
coffee at a cafe with his Syrian second cousin, Ali Diab, a Shiite
truck driver who has welcomed the family into his home in the Damascus
suburb of Muhajreen.

Government Fervor, and Private Worries
Nazila Fathi
TEHRAN
It is not surprising that Iran's newspapers have denounced Israel for
its military actions against Hamas in Gaza and against Hezbollah in
Lebanon, and praised the Iranian government's support for those
groups. State-run television and radio have dedicated major parts of
their programs and news broadcasts to reports from Lebanon and the
Palestinian territories. State television constantly shows images of
injured civilians, including children, and the radio broadcasts
interviews with Lebanese supporters of Hezbollah.


11) Despite Joint Statement on Mideast, Strains Emerge as U.S.
Supports Israel's Campaign
Jim Rutenberg
New York Times
July 17, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/world/middleeast/17diplo.html

The Bush administration on Sunday appeared to give Israel tacit
approval to cripple Hezbollah, casting the widening conflict in the
Middle East in terms of a wider war on terrorism.

12) Analysis: Iran the Lurking Mideast Issue
Associated Press
July 16, 2006
Filed at 6:25 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Mideast-All-About-Iran.html

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) -- The past five days' shocking flare-up of Mideast
violence may really be, beneath it all, a fight about Iran and its
place in the region. While Israel, the United States and some Arab
countries hope the Islamic regime suffers a blow, Tehran may count on
emerging from the crisis with its power intact and its influence
raised even higher.

13) Militia Rebuked by Some Arab Countries
Hassan M. Fattah
New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/world/middleeast/17arab.html
July 17, 2006

With the battle between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah
raging, key Arab governments have taken the rare step of blaming
Hezbollah, underscoring in part their growing fear of influence by the
group's main sponsor, Iran. Saudi Arabia, with Jordan, Egypt and
several Persian Gulf states, chastised Hezbollah for "unexpected,
inappropriate and irresponsible acts" at an emergency Arab League
summit meeting in Cairo on Saturday.

14) Oil on Rise Toward $78 After Mideast Violence
Reuters
July 17, 2006
Filed at 2:59 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-oil.html

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Oil pushed toward record highs on Monday after a
weekend of worsening conflict between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas
unnerved traders who fear the violence could escalate and spread
across the oil-producing Middle East.

15) The Real Aim
Uri Avnery
Gush Shalom
July 15, 2006
http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery/1152991173/

THE REAL aim is to change the regime in Lebanon and to install a
puppet government.
That was the aim of Ariel Sharon's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. It
failed. But Sharon and his pupils in the military and political
leadership have never really given up on it.
As in 1982, the present operation, too, was planned and is being
carried out in full coordination with the US. As then, there is no
doubt that it is coordinated with a part of the Lebanese elite. That's
the main thing. Everything else is noise and propaganda.

16) A Beautiful Friendship?
In search of the truth about the Israel lobby's influence on Washington
Glenn Frankel
Washington Post Magazine
Sunday, July 16, 2006; Page W13
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/12/AR2006071201627.html

It's not that Olmert is a more commanding figure than Ben-Gurion. Far
from it. No, it's about power. And not just Israeli power. It's really
about the perceived power of the Israel lobby, a collection of
American Jewish organizations, campaign contributors and think tanks
-- aided by Christian conservatives and other non-Jewish supporters --
that arose over the second half of the 20th century and that sees as a
principle goal the support and promotion of the interests of the state
of Israel.

17) Crowds Rally Again to Demand Recount in Mexico
Ginger Thompson
New York Times
July 17, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/world/americas/17mexico.html

MEXICO CITY, July 16 — For the second time in eight days, thousands of
supporters of the leftist presidential candidate, Andrés Manuel López
Obrador, filled this city's historic central plaza to demonstrate
their support for his demand for a vote-by-vote recount of Mexico's
disputed July 2 election. The crowds at this rally — several hundred
thousand — were considerably larger than the last and seemed to
indicate that the movement started by the embattled former mayor of
Mexico City remained strong.

18) Mexico Leftist to Launch Civil Resistance
Reuters
July 16, 2006
Filed at 5:50 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mexico-election.html

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Backed by hundreds of thousands of followers,
the leftist who lost Mexico's presidential vote vowed on Sunday to
launch a civil resistance campaign to protest at fraud and force a
recount.

---
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy