[Peace-discuss] Broad Strategy

[David Green]

"Regional leaders want to find a way to navigate
unease on their streets and deal with the strategic
threats to take down Hezbollah and Hamas, to come out
of the crisis where they are not as ascendant." 

HEADLINE: Strikes Are Called Part of Broad Strategy; 
U.S., Israel Aim to Weaken Hezbollah, Region's
Militants

Robin Wright, Washington Post Staff Writer

Israel, with U.S. support, intends to resist calls for
a cease-fire and continue a longer-term strategy of
punishing Hezbollah, which is likely to include
several weeks of precision bombing in Lebanon,
according to senior Israeli and U.S. officials. 

For Israel, the goal is to eliminate Hezbollah as a
security threat -- or altogether, the sources said. A
senior Israeli official confirmed that Hezbollah
leader Hasan Nasrallah is a target, on the calculation
that the Shiite movement would be far less dynamic
without him. 

For the United States, the broader goal is to strangle
the axis of Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran, which
the Bush administration believes is pooling resources
to change the strategic playing field in the Middle
East, U.S. officials say. 

Whatever the outrage on the Arab streets, Washington
believes it has strong behind-the-scenes support among
key Arab leaders also nervous about the populist
militants -- with a tacit agreement that the timing is
right to strike. 

"What is out there is concern among conservative Arab
allies that there is a hegemonic Persian threat
[running] through Damascus, through the southern
suburbs of Beirut and to the Palestinians in Hamas,"
said a senior U.S. official who requested anonymity
because of sensitive diplomacy. "Regional leaders want
to find a way to navigate unease on their streets and
deal with the strategic threats to take down Hezbollah
and Hamas, to come out of the crisis where they are
not as ascendant." 

Hezbollah's cross-border raid that captured two
Israeli soldiers and killed eight others has provided
a "unique moment" with a "convergence of interests"
among Israel, some Arab regimes and even those in
Lebanon who want to rein in the country's last private
army, the senior Israeli official said, speaking on
the condition of anonymity because of the ongoing
conflict. 

Israel and the United States would like to hold out
until Hezbollah is crippled. 

"It seems like we will go to the end now," said
Israeli Ambassador Daniel Ayalon. "We will not go part
way and be held hostage again. We'll have to go for
the kill -- Hezbollah neutralization." 

White House officials said Friday that Bush has called
on Israel to limit civilian casualties and avoid
toppling the Lebanese government but has not pressured
Israel to stop its military action. "He believes that
the Israelis have a right to protect themselves,"
spokesman Tony Snow said in St. Petersburg, where Bush
is attending the Group of Eight summit. "The president
is not going to make military decisions for Israel." 

Specifically, officials said, Israel and the United
States are looking to create conditions for achieving
one remaining goal of U.N. Resolution 1559, adopted in
2004, which calls for the dismantling and disarming of
Lebanon's militias and expanding the state's control
over all its territory. 

"We think part of the solution to this is the
implementation of 1559, which would eliminate that
[armed group operating outside the government] and
help Lebanon extend all of its authority throughout
the whole country," national security adviser Stephen
J. Hadley told reporters with Bush in Russia
yesterday. 

The other part of the resolution calls for the
withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, which was
completed in April last year -- after the
assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq
Hariri, which was widely linked to Syria. 

If Lebanon as a first step takes over Hezbollah's
stockpiles, which included more than 12,000 rockets
and missiles before the current strife began, then
cease-fire talks could begin, the Israeli official
said. 

"The only way a cease-fire will even be considered is
if 1559 is fully implemented," said the senior Israeli
official. Lebanese troops must be deployed to take
over positions in Hezbollah's southern Lebanon
strongholds to ensure that there are no more
cross-border raids or rocket barrages into northern
Israel. 

There are no guarantees, however, that this strategy
will work. Israeli airstrikes could backfire, experts
warn. 

"Hezbollah was risking alienating not only the
Lebanese public at large but, incredibly, its very own
Shiite constituency. But if Israel continues with its
incessant targeting of exclusively civilian targets,
and, as a result, life becomes increasingly difficult
for the people, I would not be surprised if there is a
groundswell of support for Hezbollah, exactly opposite
of what Israel is trying to achieve," said Timur
Goksel, an analyst and former spokesman for the U.N.
force in Lebanon who lives in Beirut. 

The Bush administration's position -- and diplomacy --
are the opposite of what happened during the Clinton
administration. 

The last Hezbollah-Israel cease-fire was just before
dawn on April 27, 1996, after the United States
brokered a deal to end a punishing 16-day Israeli
offensive designed to end Hezbollah's rocket barrages.
More than 150 Lebanese, mostly civilians, were killed;
more than 60 Israelis were injured. Tens of thousands
on both sides of the border had fled or gone into
bunkers. 

Then-Secretary of State Warren Christopher shuttled
for a week between Jerusalem and Damascus to mediate a
written agreement, a sequel to a similar oral deal he
negotiated after skirmishes in 1993. 

For now, that is not a viable option to end the
current conflict, U.S. officials say. With its
diplomacy redefined by the war on terrorism, the Bush
administration has opted for a course that plays out
on the battlefield. 

Pressed on whether a cease-fire was possible soon, the
Israeli official said it was "way, way premature" to
consider an end to hostilities. "There is no sense to
have a cease-fire without a fundamental change," he
said. "That change is to make sure the explosiveness
of the situation cannot carry over to the future. That
means neutralizing Hezbollah's capabilities." 

The Bush administration is also using Resolution 1559
as a barometer, U.S. officials say, acknowledging that
the Lebanese government has shown neither the ability
nor the willingness to deploy its fledgling army to
the southern border. 

U.S. officials have cautioned Israel to use restraint,
particularly on collateral damage and destruction of
infrastructure, which might undermine the fragile
government. There was some U.S. concern about attacks
on the Beirut airport, but otherwise Washington is
prepared to step aside and defer diplomacy unless
there is a dramatic break, U.S. officials say. 

"They do have space to operate for a period of time,"
the U.S. official said about Israel. "There's a
natural dynamic to these things. When the military
starts, it may be that it has to run its course." 

Israel and the United States believe that the Israeli
strikes in Gaza, following the kidnapping of an
Israeli soldier, have undermined Hamas. "There is no
Hamas government -- eight cabinet ministers or 30
percent of the government is in jail, another 30
percent is in hiding, and the other 30 percent is
doing very little," said the senior U.S. official. 



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