[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, July 18, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
July 18, 2006

In this issue:
1) Israeli General Says Lebanon Offensive Will Last Weeks
2) Toll Climbs In Mideast As Fighting Rages On
3) Israeli Flyers Rain Down on Bemused Lebanese
4) Hizbollah Rockets Hit Haifa
5) Lebanese Army Seen As Key to Mideast Peace
6) Livni: the Time for Diplomacy Is at Hand
7) Iran Official: No Part of Israel Safe
8) Editorial: Diplomacy's Turn in Lebanon
9) Rice Intends to Visit Middle East
10) Israel Appears to Soften Its Conditions
11) G8 Hits N.Korea Tests, Backs Russia Atom Fuel Plan
12)  Editorial: A War With Extremists
13) Calderon Readies New Mexico Government

Summary:
Today's New York Times and Washington Post editorials on the Lebanon
crisis present a study in contrasts. The New York Times says it's time
for diplomacy. The dangers of escalation are too great. The Security
Council is divided: the Bush administration says Hezbollah should act
first, returning the abducted Israeli soldiers and halting rocket
attacks before any cease-fire, while others envision a simultaneous
halting of hostilities by both sides. Those differences need to be
worked out, so that the killing and human suffering can stop.
Washington is right to press for the release of the Israeli soldiers,
but this should not be a precondition for the earliest possible
cease-fire. Many lives and the stability of the wider region depend on
achieving a quick halt to the fighting.

But the Washington Post says the war must go on. The current warfare
"stems not from Israel's occupation of Arab lands or its holding of
Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners, but from a blatant bid by Iran and
Syria and their allies in Hamas and Hezbollah to stop the creation of
a democratic Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza and the
parallel consolidation of a democracy in Lebanon." The only
satisfactory outcome is a decisive defeat for these forces. Extremists
favor a cease-fire because they know that the longer the fighting
continues, the more damage Israel is likely to do to the military
infrastructure and leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah.

The Lebanese government, until recently considered to be allied with
the West, has repeatedly called for an immediate ceasefire.

The G8 endorsed a Russian plan to create international atomic fuel
centres to prevent countries from developing nuclear bombs. Moscow's
plan would set up nuclear fuel centres in Russia under U.N.
supervision so countries like Iran would be guaranteed access to fuel
for power plants and would have no need for national enrichment
programmes. It also backed a U.S. proposal to set up an international
fuel bank, also to be overseen by the U.N. nuclear watchdog. The
statement repeated a call from previous summits not to allow countries
that do not have enrichment programmes to join the select group of
enriching nations -- wording G8 diplomats said would not be endorsed
at next year's summit. "Canada in particular doesn't like this and
wants it out next year,'' a G8 diplomat said. A spokeswoman for
Canadian Prime Minister Harper said the world's no. 1 supplier of raw
uranium may eventually want to join the enrichment club.

Israeli officials accused the Lebanese military of directly aiding
Hezbollah fighters in an attack on an Israeli naval vessel. It should
be noted that the ship in question was enforcing a naval blockade on
the country, so if it were true that part of the Lebanese military
were involved in the attack it would perhaps not be shocking. A naval
blockade is an act of war against a country; this is something that a
country's military would ordinarily feel some obligation to respond
to. 20 Lebanese soldiers have been killed and scores wounded in
Israeli airstrikes.

More than 220 Lebanese civilians and a dozen Israeli civilians have
been killed in the fighting so far, according to news agency reports.
Efforts to evacuate foreign nationals from Lebanon continued. The
fighting has displaced more than 60,000 people, the government said, a
figure thought to be a conservative estimate (another press report put
the figure at 100,000.) Human Rights Watch called on the Israeli
military to provide details about a bombing Saturday that killed 16
people in a convoy of civilians fleeing a Lebanese village near
Israel's border. A truck carrying medical supplies donated by the UAE
was hit and its driver killed on the Beirut-Damascus highway, the
Health Ministry said.

A top Israeli general said today that Israel's offensive in Lebanon
would last another few weeks, and he said that the use of large
numbers of ground forces had not been ruled out.
He said the army needed more time to complete it goals. On Monday the
general said that Israel thought it would have another week before
international pressure built up enough to work out an enforceable
cease-fire.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert vowed that Israel would not halt
its offensive on Lebanon until four conditions were met: the release
of two soldiers abducted last week, the deployment of the Lebanese
army along a buffer zone at the border, the withdrawal of Hezbollah
fighters from that zone and the implementation of U.N. Resolution
1559, which calls for the disarmament of militias such as Hezbollah.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will travel to the Middle East to
try to resolve the crisis, Bush administration officials said.
Israel's ambassador to the United States said that it might be too
soon for Ms. Rice to accomplish anything.

In Gaza, Palestinian doctors in Beit Hanoun said three people were
killed in their homes by Israeli snipers and 14 others wounded. An
Israeli military spokeswoman said that seven rockets were fired from
the area Monday, injuring two Israeli civilians.

Israeli flyers are raining down on Lebanese -- some are cartoons
mocking Hizbollah, others are warnings to stay away from the
stronghold of the guerrilla group. The flyers are part of attempts by
Israel to turn Lebanese against the guerrilla group. Lebanon is
already split between opponents of Hizbollah who blame the group for
sparking an Israeli campaign, and supporters of the group. But such
caricatures appear to have little effect on people's opinion. "The
cartoon flyer is cute. Usually these are threats to destroy Beirut and
since we are seeing people blown up on TV all the time, this seems
like comic relief,'' said a graphic designer. "I didn't like the
warnings to people to leave the south though, because where does
Israel expect people to go when it has cut off the roads?'' Residents
scared by strikes and Israeli warnings have fled but roads are unsafe.
Over 200 civilians have been killed in Lebanon since the crisis began
a week ago, including 20 who died when an Israeli missile struck their
van as they fled a border village in line with Israeli warnings by
loudspeaker.

"It is urgent that the international community acts to make a
difference on the ground,'' UN Secretary General Annan said in
Brussels, suggesting a new UN force that would operate differently
from U.N. peacekeepers who have patrolled south Lebanon since 1978. He
was speaking after talks with the European Commission President, who
said some EU member states were willing to contribute troops.

A poll in the mass-circulation Yedioth Ahronoth daily said 86 percent
of Israelis believed the army's attacks on Lebanon were justified.
Many favored assassinating Hizbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

In Israel, Public Security Minister Dichter said Israel might at some
stage have to negotiate over Lebanese prisoners held in Israel to end
the crisis.

The international community, led by Israel, wants Lebanese soldiers to
deploy along the border to push back Hezbollah fighters as a condition
in any future peaceful settlement, the AP reports. But analysts say
such a move is problematic because ethnic and religious divisions have
left the 70,000-strong force unable to function well as an independent
fighting force. On Saturday, Lebanese Prime Minister Saniora said his
government wanted to work with the United Nations toward reasserting
state authority over all Lebanese territory. The Lebanese army far
outnumbers Hezbollah's estimated 6,000 fighters. But its troops lack
guerrilla battle experience and religious zeal. With many Shiite
members, the army could also break up along sectarian lines, as it did
during the civil war.

Israel would be ready to call a cease-fire with Hezbollah if its
captured soldiers are returned, the Lebanese army deploys along the
countries' shared border and the future disarmament of the militia can
be guaranteed, its foreign minister said Tuesday. Livni said the time
for diplomacy was at hand, though she added that Israel's military
operations would not end until its goals are reached. Livni also gave
a tacit endorsement for an international force in Lebanon that could
temporarily help the Lebanese army enforce a cease-fire. In recent
days, Western nations have proposed sending a beefed-up international
force to the area, bolstering one already in place there -- a proposal
that until now has been received coolly by Israel. Livni also said,
however, that Israel's experience with the current U.N. force
stationed in south Lebanon was ''not satisfactory'' and that Israel
prefers no such force in the long-term. In recent days, Israeli
officials have sent conflicting signals about whether Israel would
demand Hezbollah's disarmament as a condition for a cease-fire.
Livni's comments indicated Israel would accept future disarmament,
provided that Lebanon immediately deploy its own troops along the
border to prevent any future rocket attacks against northern Israel.

U.S. Secretary of State Rice intends to travel to the Middle East to
seek to calm the region, it was reported last night. There was no word
yet on timing of the visit, but Israel's ambassador to the United
States said now was not the right moment for her to go.
Lebanon's special envoy to the United Nations also said now was not
the time for a visit by Rice.

In Mexico, Felipe Calderon said Monday he has begun working on his new
government, even though the country's electoral court has yet to
declare a winner in the disputed race. Under Mexican law he cannot be
declared president-elect until an electoral court deals with
challenges to the vote. But Calderon said Monday the country can't sit
dormant pending a decision from the court, which must rule on the
election by Aug. 31 and declare a president-elect by Sept. 6.
Calderon's comments came a day after more than 300,000 (more than a
million, according to one press report) Lopez Obrador supporters
jammed the capital's central plaza. Chanting ''Vote by vote!'' they
backed the former mayor's calls for a manual re-count of an election
he says was stolen from him by fraud.

Articles:
1) Israeli General Says Lebanon Offensive Will Last Weeks
Steven Erlanger And Jad Mouawad
New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/18/world/middleeast/18cnd-mideast.html
July 18, 2006

A top Israeli general said today that Israel's offensive in Lebanon
would last another few weeks, and he said that the use of large
numbers of ground forces had not been ruled out.
Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky, Israel's deputy chief of staff, told Israel
Radio that the army needed more time to complete "very clear goals."
He added: "The fighting in Lebanon will end within a few weeks. We
will not take months.'' On Monday, General Kaplinsky told a reporter
that Israel thought it would have another week before international
pressure built up enough to work out an enforceable cease-fire.

2) Toll Climbs In Mideast As Fighting Rages On
As Leaders Weigh Plans, Westerners Flee Beirut
Anthony Shadid, John Ward Anderson and Debbi Wilgoren
Washington Post
Tuesday, July 18, 2006; 8:20 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/18/AR2006071800413.html

BEIRUT, Lebanon, July 18 -- Israeli warplanes bombed a Lebanese army
base early Tuesday, wire services reported, killing 11 soldiers and
ratcheting up an armed conflict that has raged on both sides of the
border for nearly a week. Hezbollah, the militant Shiite group that
triggered the fighting with a cross-border ambush last Wednesday,
fired seven more rockets that hit the Israeli cities of Haifa and
Safed on Tuesday but caused no injuries, officials said. Efforts to
evacuate foreign nationals from Lebanon continued.

3) Israeli Flyers Rain Down on Bemused Lebanese
Reuters
July 18, 2006
Filed at 7:52 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mideast-lebanon-flyers.html

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Israeli flyers are raining down on Lebanese -- some
are cartoons mocking Hizbollah, others are warnings to stay away from
the stronghold of the guerrilla group. In a crude drawing, leaflets
dropped by Israeli planes over Beirut depict Hizbollah chief Sayyed
Hassan Nasrallah as a cobra dancing to the tune of the flute-playing
leaders of Iran, Syria and Palestinian group Hamas.

4) Hizbollah Rockets Hit Haifa
Reuters
July 18, 2006
Filed at 7:59 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-mideast.html

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Israeli warplanes battered Lebanon on Tuesday,
killing 26 people, and more Hizbollah rockets hit the Israeli city of
Haifa, with no sign that diplomacy would halt the week-old conflict
any time soon. Nine family members, including children, were killed
and four wounded in an air strike on their house in the village of
Aitaroun. Four people were killed in other strikes in the south. A
truck carrying medical supplies donated by the United Arab Emirates
was hit and its driver killed on the Beirut-Damascus highway, the
Health Ministry said.

5) Lebanese Army Seen As Key to Mideast Peace
Associated Press
July 18, 2006
Filed at 8:48 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Mideast-Lebanese-Army.html

BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) -- Lebanon's national army has been largely a
spectator in the bloody confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah.
Its troops are taking casualties in Israeli airstrikes and standing by
as guerrillas fire rockets at northern Israel, provoking punitive
reprisals. Now the international community, led by Israel, wants
Lebanese soldiers to deploy along the border to push back Hezbollah
fighters as a condition in any future peaceful settlement. But
analysts say such a move is problematic because ethnic and religious
divisions and decades of Syrian dominance have left the 70,000-strong
force unable to function well as an independent fighting force.

6) Livni: the Time for Diplomacy Is at Hand
Associated Press
July 18, 2006
Filed at 7:46 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Israel-Lebanon.html

JERUSALEM (AP) -- Israel would be ready to call a cease-fire with
Hezbollah if its captured soldiers are returned, the Lebanese army
deploys along the countries' shared border and the future disarmament
of the militia can be guaranteed, the foreign minister said Tuesday.
After a week of fighting, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said the time
for diplomacy was at hand, though she added that Israel's military
operations would not end until its goals are reached.

7) Iran Official: No Part of Israel Safe
Associated Press
July 18, 2006
Filed at 4:27 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Israel.html

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- No part of Israel is safe in the current fighting
with Lebanon, Iran's parliamentary speaker warned Tuesday, referring
to the range of guerrilla rockets. Speaking to a crowd of thousands of
anti-Israel demonstrators in Palestine Square, Tehran, Speaker Gholam
Ali Haddad Adel told Israelis: ''The towns you have built in northern
Palestine (Israel) are within the range of the brave Lebanese
children. No part of Israel will be safe.''

8) Editorial: Diplomacy's Turn in Lebanon
New York Times
July 18, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/18/opinion/18tue2.html

International diplomacy finally started to stir yesterday in response
to the havoc on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border, including
calls by the United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan, and Prime
Minister Tony Blair of Britain for dispatching an international
peacekeeping force. Stopping the fighting won't be easy, but the
dangers of escalation are too great to permit the major powers, or
worried Arab rulers, to turn away.

9) Rice Intends to Visit Middle East
Reuters
July 17, 2006
Filed at 6:22 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/washington/politics-mideast-usa-rice.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
intends to travel to the Middle East to seek to calm the region where
Israel has bombarded Lebanon for days and the militant group Hizbollah
has fired rockets into the Jewish state. "At some point in the future,
the secretary intends to travel to the region,'' State Department
spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters.

10) Israel Appears to Soften Its Conditions
Associated Press
July 17, 2006
Filed at 3:57 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Mideast-Fighting-Israel.html

JERUSALEM (AP) -- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Monday that
the fighting in Lebanon would end when two Israeli soldiers were
freed, rocket attacks stopped and the Lebanese army deployed along the
border. But he appeared to scale back from previous demands for
Hezbollah to be dismantled.

11) G8 Hits N.Korea Tests, Backs Russia Atom Fuel Plan
Reuters
July 17, 2006
Filed at 10:27 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-group-nuclear-arms.html

ST PETERSBURG, Russia (Reuters) - The Group of Eight industrial
nations condemned North Korea's recent missile tests and endorsed a
Russian plan to create international atomic fuel centres to prevent
countries from developing nuclear bombs.

12)  Editorial: A War With Extremists
This Middle East conflict should end with the defeat of its instigators.
Washington Post
Tuesday, July 18, 2006; A18
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/17/AR2006071701310.html

SOMEWHAT remarkably, the world leaders gathered in St. Petersburg
managed to grasp the most important point about the current Middle
East crisis: It "results from efforts by extremist forces to
destabilize the region and to frustrate the aspirations of the
Palestinian, Israeli and Lebanese people for democracy and peace." In
other words, the current warfare in Lebanon, Gaza and Israel stems not
from Israel's occupation of Arab lands or its holding of Palestinian
and Lebanese prisoners, but from a blatant bid by Iran and Syria and
their allies in Hamas and Hezbollah to stop the creation of a
democratic Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza and the
parallel consolidation of a democracy in Lebanon.

13) Calderon Readies New Mexico Government
E. Eduardo Castillo
Associated Press
July 18, 2006
Filed at 1:12 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Mexico-Elections.html

MEXICO CITY (AP) -- The top vote getter in Mexico's presidential
election said Monday he has begun working on his new government, even
though the country's electoral court has yet to declare a winner in
the disputed race. Conservative Felipe Calderon, of President Vicente
Fox's ruling National Action Party, led official returns from the July
2 election by about 244,000 votes -- just 0.6 percentage points.
However, under Mexican law he cannot be declared president-elect until
an electoral court deals with challenges to the vote.

--
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org